Realistically speaking, Sydney should be occupied by no more than four teams, one each for the cardinal points.
I think there's pretty much 6 or 7 cardinal points in a city as big as Sydney (if you take the geographical centre as Parramatta) and with it's particular shape and the way it is growing.... And I know that makes then not cardinal points as such, but you get my drift.
Priorities:
1. Outer Western Sydney - the area covered by
Penrith, from the mountains in to Blacktown
- big population, threat of new AFL team at Blacktown
2. Western Sydney - the area covered by
Parramatta, from Auburn out to Blacktown including Hills District
- big population, threat of new AFL team at Blacktown
3. South Western Sydney - the area now covered by
Wests from Liverpool outwards to Camden
- big population, not many games played there
4. Northern Sydney - the area covered by
Manly and previously North Sydney
- no competition other than club rugby, opportunity for a new team added on Central Coast to shore up league's geographical coverage
5. Southern Sydney - the area covered by
St George-Illawarra and
Cronulla
- two NRL teams squashed into what could be the one broad area for mine, StG-Illa have already merged and Cronulla look ripe as future relocation candidates
6. Inner Sydney - this is where it gets tricky... these areas were once the games heartlands and all that really existed of Sydney when league began.
In these areas the population isn't growing or expanding, the AFL and Waratahs have decent levels of support, and it includes all the areas covered by the Bulldogs, Roosters and Rabbitohs, as well as those previously covered by Balmain Tigers and Wests Magpies.
Now, the Roosters and Rabbitohs will never merge, and are our two remaining foundation clubs (and I'm not a fan of getting rid of our last bit of history). The Bulldogs don't play in their traditional area at all any more, and I guess have moved into the old Wests area more as their home groundlocation over the years. You could say the same of Souths and their use of Homebush, and then you look at Wests with their current use of a ground in Souths/Easts territory while Campbelltown is renovated. :crazy:
The Roosters have rebranded from Easts to Sydney, and play... in Sydney. So they get a tick. The Rabbitohs have shifted to get a grip of an area near Homebush, have maintained connections with their local area (refit of Redfern Oval), and thrive off that history while also moving forward with Rusty's marketing of the club. So they get a tick to stay.
Wests can hopefully move back out of the city and Homebush and back out to a home base at a decent stadium at Campbelltown, with the odd boutique match at Leichhardt doing no harm.
The Bulldogs dropped their geography from their branding some time ago, have not maintained any links to Belmore that I'm aware of, and now also play out of Homebush. They have a strong "brand" that could survive a detachment from whatever their local area now is, as well as ownership of other minor club facilities in many different areas. I think they have been gearing up for a relocation, given the crowded nature of the clubs competing in this Inner Sydney space - they were a key part of Super League and it's theory about reducing teams after all.
This bit has been a bit lengthy, but what I'm seeing for this area in future is this:
6. a) Sydney - the area currently covered by the
Roosters (plus maybe Souths Juniors?), with Roosters looking to build a future alliance with an area outside Sydney in terms of junior nursery and occasional game.
- a foundation club playing out of SFS, with one regaular out of Sydney game scheduled per year.
6. b) Inner Western Sydney - the area previously covered by Wests Magpies, Balmain Tigers, Bulldogs, to be covered by
Rabbitohs franchise
- a foundation team playing out of Homebush, with the odd game at SFS (and Redfern for pre-season) to maintain the South Sydney history ties.
Relocations:
Bulldogs - to choose wherever they like, except Central Coast. Potential opportunities in Adelaide,
Perth, 2nd Brisbane franchise, 2nd NZ franchise. All of these are outside of NSW and the pokies tax, and they would maintain a presence in VB Cup or whatever it is called. Rabbitohs franchise tries to win over people from traditional area around Bankstown in some way.
Sharks - to be guided by the NRL in relocating to a place that suits the game. Potential opportunities in
Adelaide, Perth,
2nd Brisbane franchise, 2nd NZ franchise. I'll throw in
Sunshine Coast because someone said so, even though I'm not sure whether they'd sustain a team more than a 2nd Brisbane side? maintain a presence in the VB cup and St George-Illawarra attempt to win people over from the area (by having a sky blue stripe or something :lol
.
New teams (> 2012):
Central Coast Bears - would mean an expansion of the comp when we are ready to got to 18 teams. Infrastructure is in place, using the Bears name goes some way into retaining the previous good will built up by North Sydney, and gives the brand new club an informal association with the remaints of that old club and its junior area.
18th team - Whichever area out of the following has its own consortium in place and ready to go for it, and hasn't formed part of NRL plans for relocation - 2nd Brisbane team, 2nd NZ team, Adelaide, Perth, Sunshine Coast. The
Wellington Orcas sounded like they had some OK plans when the last bids were received?
End results:
You'll never get Sydney down to four teams. From nine teams currently I've got it down to 7 without too much pain, or guesisng games. If you simultaneously expand the comp by 2 teams (Central Coast and Wellington) after 2012 once there's enough money from new broadcast deals and the game is ready, then the % of Sydney clubs will have dropped from >50% to 38%. And through two relocations you could back Perth to the game and probably a 2nd Brisbane team, with Adelaide and the Sunshine Coast to follow by 2019 with a comp expanded to 20 teams (and the damage done by Super League will finally be made right).
