It’s the same with a lot of clubs. The Dolphins will take time to build a base as well. It will also be the same with the 18th club most likely Perth or NZ 2.
It takes a generation of two to build a solid base of a couple hundred thousand; as well as some success.
I’m comfortable with the Gold Coast being in the competition. We need at least three clubs in South East Queensland, considering it is outside of Perth, the fastest growing region in Australia. If we’re looking at where to have or put sides, we need to think about metrics like this. Also, if and when they achieve success, the support will follow
The Dolphins, as much as they really try to move away from it, do have a strong base from Redcliffe. As long as they don't completely alienate this base, they should have a solid base to build from (even if the team is going to be pretty meh in the first season).
Perth have been doing A LOT of grass roots work over the last 10-15 years that I think will help create a solid base. They have community support, they already have development pathways that have started, etc. The Perth Reds were still fairly well supported when they were folded.
Both of these teams will still need to make the right decisions in coaching and recruitment. Dolphins went with the name coach, but we will see if he can build this team effectively. Team isn't looking great yet, but I'd be giving them more than one season.
Gold Coast's problem is really around the coaching and recruitment itself. They're the Wests Tigers in South East Queensland. They are throwing money it any free agent hoping they will come without much plan for the team itself. It's great having Tino and Fifita, but it's not great when you have no decent spine players and your game plan revolves around involving Fifita as little as possible. They really need to put together a strategy that is evidence-based to fix up their roster.