This round has made things a little more clearer, but not much.
Raiders 24 points, +72 differential
Bulldogs, Knights home
Rabbitohs, Cowboys away
Canberra have to be locks for the top-8 now. Bulldogs at home they will spank. Rabbits and Cows away are games that they have been liable to drop in the past, but it doesn't look like happening. With the porous defence of both those teams, they should win those ones. Knights at home they will go into favoured, after today's mauling of the Panthers. I see 3-1 or 4-0, giving them 30 or 32 points and easily a top six spot.
Dragons 24 points, +63 differential
Broncos away
Roosters, Eels, Warriors home
Pretty tough draw, two wins and two losses is acceptable and could even be enough to see them sneak into the eight. But there are no two games that the Dragons could say that they are going to win; at least not on current form.
Tigers 24 points, +38 differential
Sharks, Sea Eagles home
Titans, Eels away
Kind of tough for the Tigers in the run home. Home games will give a slight leveller, but they will have to be near their best to beat either Cronulla and especially Manly. Titans away they could be considered vulnerable, but they should win. Parra away will be a tough tussle no matter what.
1-3 at the worst IMO, 26 points and a positive differential. Best case is obviously 4-0, but a realistic best case would be 3-1 probably, and give them 30 and a playoff spot.
Warriors 24 points, -95 differential
Sharks, Panthers home
Dragons, Eels away
I think we will need three wins to make it. Raiders should finish on 30, and the Tigers/Dragons could too. With our bad differential, we know that we will deserve our spot in the finals if we can make it.
Sharks at home will be an arm-wrestle, which we have had average success in such situations. It's one we will start with a fair chance though, especially at home. Panthers at home in Round 25 is almost the opposite, both teams can put the points on, but we're at home, and we'd need a win.
Dragons and Eels away will be tough games no matter what. We don't perform well in these two respective fixtures regardless of the situation we find ourselves in. We don't play well in Australia full stop.
I'm hoping for 3-1, which will be what we need. 28 points won't be enough with our bad differential.
Panthers 23 points, -69 differential
Dogs, Storm, Sea Eagles home
Warriors away
Pretty tough draw for a team demoralised after an awful performance today. You'd still back them to beat the Dogs comfortably, but from there, the run home is rather tough. The Storm and Sea Eagles are the best two teams in the competition, and can win without home advantage.
Warriors away they'll be a chance, as they have had success against us in the past, and especially in Auckland. It will depend, however, if they are still in contention come Round 25, such is the week-by-week proposition teams have to take in such a tight league.
2-2 best case scenario? 27 points, and not enough?
Knights 22 points, +37 differential
Storm and Cowboys home
Broncos, Raiders, Titans away
Have a game in hand over the teams listed above them. Will end the round in the 8 with a win over the Titans, something I think that they will. From there, games in Brisbane and Canberra will especially test their mettle, as will the game against the Storm. Cowboys at home will be a walk in the park for them you'd think.
Worst case, 2-3. Best case, 3-2 or even 4-1. Finish on 26, 28 or 30. 30 will be enough for them, 28 and a good differential is a maybe, 26 is a no-no.
Titans 22 points, -58 differential
Tigers, Knights home
Broncos, Sea Eagles, Cowboys away
As bad as they have been recently due to injuries, they go to 9th with a win over the Knights tomorrow. I don't see it happening for them sadly.
Sea Eagles away is an immediate write-off. Broncos and Cowboys away in the local derby will both be tough, as the Coast have bragging rights at the moment. They could eek out the Cows, but not be so lucky against the Broncos.
Tigers at home is a game they could take if the Tigers don't bring their A-game.
Best case, 2-3. Worst case, 0-5 or 1-4. Best case finish is 26 points, and they miss out.
Eels - to be updated after Roosters game.
