League will only ever be a niche sport in Victoria. Anyone who thinks any different has never ever been to Victoria. Melbourne is a cosmopolitan sort of place where most people are hip and trendy and up to trying the latest fad. They will also go and watch any sort of sport.
The rest of Victoria is full of VFL loving knuckle draggers who'd be more likely to volunteer for a lobotomy then go and watch a game of Rugby League. Simple country folk like those in country Victoria, fear change.
If you ever need any proof, just watch one of the numerous fluff stories run on any channel 7 news telecast about AFL. There was one on Sunrise this morning talking about 2 French students who had moved to country Victoria on an exchange program and been drafted into the local AFL team. I was watching it thinking FMD, who cares but I'm sure there were thousands of inbreds in country Victoria, riveted to the screen thinking, "wow this is exciting" or "isn't it amazing how people can play our game and pick up all the skills necessary in minutes" and "where is France again, that must be an exciting place!"
There would have to be a catastrophic failure of VFL for League to ever create more than just passing interest and even if VFL fell over tomorrow, Soccer would become the number one sport in Victoria. The NRL need to give it a rest. We'd be better off playing an Origin game in WA and trying to kick start a team over there than playing origin in Victoria.