18th club, whose next?

[Colk]

So if going off all this data the last two teams (19 & 20) should be Vic2 and Perth, right?

I’ll give it to you on the proposed PNG thing because that looks likely.

Although I don’t mind that plan it would require a fair bit of cojones and league hasn’t historically had that much.

 

[Wb1234]

At least you said probably.

Nobody can make that assumption or prediction. As I said people will consume whatever they like because none of these areas are dictatorships.

In any case, if all Victorian kids in QLD become league fans (and I’m assuming people from other fumbleball states are part of this theory as well) why are you and others arguing that we definitely need a third Brisbane team ASAP to kill the Lions off? Wouldn’t they die of natural attrition anyway?

Afl has a lot of money

another Brisbane nrl club increases the pressure

crushing afl is the last reason I would pick for brisbane easts

juniors
Leagues club
Own ground
History
Powerhouse
Origin
Queensland derbies
Tv deals
Massively growing population
Olympic boom

are more important reasons

 

[MugaB]

I’ll give it to you on the proposed PNG thing because that looks likely.

Although I don’t mind that plan it would require a fair bit of cojones and league hasn’t historically had that much.

Peter V’landys is no slouch, he might look like a car salesman, but he is one of the most ruthless operators around... you know who he reminds of?another greek actual car salesman who basically owns the roosters, we are very lucky as a code to have these two involved, they are very cunning

 

[Colk]

Afl has a lot of money

another Brisbane nrl club increases the pressure

crushing afl is the last reason I would pick for brisbane easts

juniors
Leagues club
Own ground
History
Powerhouse
Origin
Queensland derbies
Tv deals

are more important reasons

Some of them are decent reasons. I’m not against it down the line. The fumbleball thing is ridiculous - they have their niche audience and the fumblers have that much money to put into it.

Tv deals are also more dependent on who is doing the negotiating and how many bodies are willing to negotiate said deal. See the last deal for reference

 

[titoelcolombiano]

or maybe he's a weak gutted dog who doesnt stand by his convictions?

I love that 'weak gutted dog' has become part of the Rugby League vernacular - thanks Ricky - lol.

Now we just need Rabs to make a one game comeback so he can use it in commentary

 

[Wb1234]

Some of them are decent reasons. I’m not against it down the line. The fumbleball thing is ridiculous - they have their niche audience and the fumblers have that much money to put into it.

Tv deals are also more dependent on who is doing the negotiating and how many bodies are willing to negotiate said deal. See the last deal for reference

Broadcasters have said they want another brisbane team

sky nz would want another nz team

that leaves png and Perth with no value for tv

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Peter V’landys is no slouch, he might look like a car salesman, but he is one of the most ruthless operators around... you know who he reminds of?another greek actual car salesman who basically owns the roosters, we are very lucky as a code to have these two involved, they are very cunning

The AFL had their own Greek dictator that got stuff done too in the 2000's. And I'm sure Andrew Demetriou would be lauded by the AFL fans on her because of what he achieved in his time.

 

[Colk]

Broadcasters have said they want another brisbane team

sky nz would want another nz team

that leaves png and Perth with no value for tv

They wanted a second Brisbane side too and the game got very little TV money for that.

You need multiple bodies bidding for rights otherwise we’ll get screwed again.

 

[Wb1234]

The AFL had their own Greek dictator that got stuff done too in the 2000's. And I'm sure Andrew Demetriou would be lauded by the AFL fans on her because of what he achieved in his time.

His post afl career has been a train wreck

 

[Wb1234]

They wanted a second Brisbane side too and the game got very little TV money for that.

You need multiple bodies bidding for rights otherwise we’ll get screwed again.

The other bidder is Stan / nine who also said they want another brisbane side

ignoring what broadcasters want doesn’t seem like a smart strategy

Fox don’t need a Perth nrl team to drive subscriptions they have the afl for that

existing nrl fans will already subscribe

all a Perth nrl team will do is get some afl viewers in Perth watching the Perth nrl games instead of the afl if a Perth team isn’t playing

a Perth side would be valuable for paramount / ten

 

[The_Wookie]

Also happened to be a year when both WA teams were trash, with the bigger of the two getting pasted week in week out. in 2020, a more average year, the averages were 92,000 for average AFL game. Fremantle averaged 108,000 viewers per match, while West Coast averaged 143,000 per game.
(Kudos to @The_Wookie your website is fantastic for data)

Posts like this are why the data was collected in the first place. Your more than welcome.

 

[The_Wookie]

Broadcasters have said they want another brisbane team

sky nz would want another nz team

that leaves png and Perth with no value for tv

maybe but if the Feds are throwing enough money, it will more than make up for the broadcaster dispointment. Same if the state gov is on board for Perth - although they will certainly have less on the table

 

[Colk]

The other bidder is Stan / nine who also said they want another brisbane side

ignoring what broadcasters want doesn’t seem like a smart strategy

Fox don’t need a Perth nrl team to drive subscriptions they have the afl for that

existing nrl fans will already subscribe

all a Perth nrl team will do is get some afl viewers in Perth watching the Perth nrl games instead of the afl if a Perth team isn’t playing

a Perth side would be valuable for paramount / ten

Nor is caving in to everything they want either.

Whilst what broadcasters may prefer has importance, it shouldn’t be the only thing either. It’s more important to get everybody bidding for it.

 

[Wb1234]

Nor is caving in to everything they want either.

Whilst what broadcasters may prefer has importance, it shouldn’t be the only thing either. It’s more important to get everybody bidding for it.

So putting a team broadcasters don’t want and has poor junior prospects is a good idea when there are places that have both and will miss out ?

you are a genius

 

[The_Wookie]

The AFL had their own Greek dictator that got stuff done too in the 2000's. And I'm sure Andrew Demetriou would be lauded by the AFL fans on her because of what he achieved in his time.

The AFL has never had a Vlandys type.

Difference is Demetriou was the CEO with a seat on the AFL Commission, Vlandys is the Chairman of the ARL Commission. Demetriou may have been a big dude at the AFL, but the AFL system doesnt allow for the CEO to dictate how the league runs. The AFL Commission had very strong personalities on it in his time - and they have to approve nearly everything, and he had the likes of Gillon Mclachlan (the next CEO) and Andrew Dillon (the new CEO), and Adrien Anderson (now Code of Conduct Commissioner at Cricket Australia), none of whom were exactly hiding in the shadows.

 

[Colk]

So putting a team broadcasters don’t want and has poor junior prospects is a good idea when there are places that have both and will miss out ?

you are a genius

I’m pointing out the last time we negotiated with the existing broadcasters and gave in to everything they wanted, we got barely enough money to cover the cost of an team’s entry.

Was that a good strategy by your man Pete? Because he seems to absolutely got played on that one.

The goals of broadcasters and the game aren’t perfectly aligned and it’s foolish to think otherwise.

 

[Wb1234]

I’m pointing out the last time we negotiated with the existing broadcasters and gave in to everything they wanted, we got barely enough money to cover the cost of an team’s entry.

Was that a good strategy by your man Pete? Because he seems to absolutely got played on that one.

The goals of broadcasters and the game aren’t perfectly aligned and it’s foolish to think otherwise.

The last time the rights didn’t go to market

it was a renogiation of the existing contract

next time they will be going to market and the value of the dolphins will be realised

we saw what happened when the nrl did the opposite of what foxtel wanted under Dave smith and it was a disaster

working with broadcasters is the smart way to go until there is genuine competition for the fta and pay rights

as long as Fox keep the rights Perth is worth nothing to broadcasters

 

[Wb1234]

Colky you’re the one wanting maximum tv deals and then wanting teams that have no value for tv

pick one priority

Perth will mean a lower tv deal than Brisbane 3

if you think that’s worth it don’t complain about the size of the tv deal

 

[Maximus]

Five hour flights will be a breeze in the park

How long does he think a flight from Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne and Auckland to PNG is?

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

You're right they're first (in the context we're talking about). In the context you're saying it in, sure they're not getting 100k a game. But obviously to be the third highest rating team on PTV, where the majority of our TV deal comes from, whatever drop off in viewers from QLD and NSW is low enough that the Victorian numbers more than make up for it. I don't think Fox particularly cares if the viewers are majority from one place or another, as long as people are watching that means the consumer is finding value in the product.




So in 6 years the Storm have increased FTA rating average by 57%. Pretty good growth.

As said in the above paragraph, if people from QLD and NSW are still going to watch in good enough numbers that they're still rating 3rd and 6th, then what's the difference to them if they're a QLD or Perth team. A Perth team has more chance of adding viewership away from rusted on supporters who watch 8 games a week.

Also adds value, in the way that if their AFL team is doing poorly, instead of cancelling Kayo, that 20-30k might decide to keep it to watch the WA NRL team. Diversifies away some risk for Perth based subscribers.

Most sponsorship $ doesn't come from small local businesses anymore. These are national leagues with national brands now. How many of the below are solely Brisbane or Melbourne based companies.
Lions..................................................Storm
View attachment 82789View attachment 82790
With the size of it's economy and only 2 teams in what I would class as Australia's premier leagues, I'd hazard a guess that there is decent level of local corporate support still available. State Government support will also definitely be there. There isn't another competition or league that will give them the access to the Sydney and Brisbane market like the NRL. That's why they've paid the big $$$ for State of Origin to be played there. Imagine week in week out visibility.

The GSP for WA has more than tripled since 1995, from ~115Bill->377Bll. Small change of circumstances.

One of the reasons the Storm draw strong numbers is because they were adopted by rugby league fans in SEQ who were upset with the fallout from the Super League War. The loss of the Crushers and Chargers created a void. It was filled by the Storm. Slater, Smith, Cronk, Inglis and Folau helped solidify their support in SEQ. The success they've enjoyed on the field over 25 years made them the "cool" team to follow for bandwagon fans.

There's no void in SEQ for a Perth-based team to fill. It won't be successful like the Storm because the talent pathways are taken by the other 17 teams.

In all likelihood, the Storm are set to fall down the table over the next decade. Once the Brisbane Tigers get in they'll have the pick of Ipswich and Logan. Sunshine Coast will eventually feed into the Dolphins. A second NZ team will dry up the amount of talent that goes to the Storm. Watch the Storm's ratings fall when they're no longer the cool team.