18th club, whose next?

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

There's obviously far more to it than using 6 metrics to pick expansion, never going to get the full picture. I disagree that population and GDP stats are irrelevant though, especially when looking at expansion markets, which all are except Bris3. I think Brisbane 3 is inevitable, the question is whether 4 years is enough time for the Dolphins to establish themselves. Dolphins are looking good after one year, but it's unknown how they will go once the new team shine wears off. The Titans were averaging 21k the first few years. Last thing you'd want to do is introduce a competitor right when they go through that dip.

The Storm are a perfect example of GDP and Population being relevant. Try expansion in a city with the same level of interest that is 1/6th the size. The investment was made 20 years ago, with sub 10k crowds. Now they are 3rd highest rating on Foxtel, 6th highest on FTA and crowds are sustainably increasing YOY.
View attachment 82772
View attachment 82773
* I used the MRS stats in the top photo to take away Magic round crowds, the two missing crowds for 2023 were the Docklands games (26k and 20k). So really 200k this year in Melbourne for an average of 18k.

You're using the national FTA and PTV ratings for the Storm and ignoring what they draw in Melbourne on FTA.

Based on data we have available, Storm averaged 33k viewers in Melbourne this year on FTA. The only year Foxtel provided a metropolitan breakdown of ratings was in 2017. Storm averaged 14k viewers on Foxtel and 21k on FTA in 2017. The Foxtel ratings for Perth were about 5k in 2017.

Brisbane Tigers make their bid to be 18th team

By the writers own admission, this is just a speculative off season article. Yes but you forgot the most important information to consider when deciding to believe the article. Does it fit the story you want to tell?

forums.leagueunlimited.com

This year the Broncos and Dolphins averaged 170k and 126k in Brisbane on FTA, with the Cowboys and Titans drawing an average of 131k. Overall, the FTA ratings were 111k in Brisbane and 12k in Melbourne. Based on this data, we can safely say that Brisbane is vastly more valuable to the broadcasters than Melbourne. For Perth, the overall FTA average was just 8k.

State of the Game 2023: NRL & NRLW TV Ratings, Attendances, Social Media, Memberships and Finance - Sports Industry AU

Well after one of the best grand finals seen in many a year, its time to say goodbye to the NRL season and hello to the forthcoming internationals, but first we take a good look at the metrics from what was a record breaking season for the National Rugby League. Attendance its all good news...

www.footyindustry.com

Western Australian companies aren't going to spend a lot of money on a Perth-based team that's watched by 20k or so Western Australians. This year the overall average FTA rating for an AwFuL game in Perth was just 45k and 74k for the Eagles and 69k for the Dockers. In Brisbane, the FTA average for the Lions was 48k and 30k overall, with just 22k tuning in to see the Suns.

Perth really doesn't provide much value to the broadcasters. The GDP per capita is worthless when the bulk of Perth's population isn't willing to invest their time and money on rugby league. It's the same problem the Reds faced in 1995.

 

[Wb1234]

Quick Analysis on the current contenders, decided to use Entire Market (Western Australia, PNG, NZ South Island, SEQ, etc) for GDP data, as that's going to be relevant for sponsorship's etc. -

Perth -
Population of Entire Market: 2,805,000
Population of Direct Market: 2,192,229
Current Growth rate: 3.1%

GDP: $377.257 billion (AUD)
GDP per Capita: $135,320
GDP growth rate: 2.1%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 20,500


PNG -
Population of Entire Market: 11,781,559
Population of Direct Market: 409,831
Current Growth rate: 1.9% (urbanisation likely to occur in the future with economic growth)

GDP: $31.692 billion (USD)
GDP per Capita: $2,581
GDP growth rate: 5.2%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 14,800


Christchurch -
Population of Entire Market: 1,225,000
Population of Direct Market: 521,881
Current Growth rate: 1.67%

GDP: $78.94 billion (NZD)
GDP per Capita: $65,875
GDP growth rate: 6.4%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 25,000-30,000 (New high quality stadium. Big +)

Brisbane 3 -
Population of Entire Market: 3,800.000 (/4 = 950,000)
Population of Direct Market: ~866,000
Current Growth rate: 2.6%

GDP: $279.79 billion (/4 = $69.9 billion)
GDP per Capita: $73,629
GDP growth rate: 2.5%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 52,500/5,500/5,000


Adelaide -
Population of Entire Market: 1,815,485
Population of Direct Market: 1,418,455
Current Growth rate: 1.7%

GDP: $108.334 billion
GDP per Capita: $61,582
GDP growth rate: 3.8%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 16,500


My synopsis: From the above metrics, Perth is the clear front runner. The one part of data that is hard to capture is the potential to supply high quality players into the NRL. Theoretically PNG has the population and passion for the game, to supply near as many players as the whole of Australia. If junior pathway programs were up to scratch there really isn't any reason there shouldn't be 100-150+ players of PNG descent in top 30 NRL squads. This is a pretty big selling point, Could be the way we expand to 20+ teams in the future and be the way into the league for a lot of the places above. A 10 year funding plan isn't enough though. Far too much instability. A better funding model needs to be approved with the government to ensure they survive longterm. 25 years+ will be needed before PNG will be sustainable without government funds.
PNG is a pretty unique situation though. Anything that builds PNG builds the NRL. Imagine a world where PNG has a GDP per Capita of $20-30k. The PNG TV deal would be massive.
The NRL is also in a good position compared to the AFL in terms of expansion effecting competition quality. We have a lot of other sources to get HQ players - Super League, Rugby Union, etc. Whereas new teams for AFL must be filled with lower league players coming into the league.

Just out of interest:
Hobart -

Population of Entire Market: 571,165
Population of Direct Market: 252,639
Current Growth rate: 0.42%

GDP: $32.102 billion
GDP per Capita: $59,779
GDP growth rate: 3.5%

Expected Stadium Capacity: 23,000

I think this just highlights the expansion options the NRL has that the AFL just doesn't. Way more growth opportunities available.

That’s why the Perth glory and western force are booming

 

[Wb1234]

There's obviously far more to it than using 6 metrics to pick expansion, never going to get the full picture. I disagree that population and GDP stats are irrelevant though, especially when looking at expansion markets, which all are except Bris3. I think Brisbane 3 is inevitable, the question is whether 4 years is enough time for the Dolphins to establish themselves. Dolphins are looking good after one year, but it's unknown how they will go once the new team shine wears off. The Titans were averaging 21k the first few years. Last thing you'd want to do is introduce a competitor right when they go through that dip.

The Storm are a perfect example of GDP and Population being relevant. Try expansion in a city with the same level of interest that is 1/6th the size. The investment was made 20 years ago, with sub 10k crowds. Now they are 3rd highest rating on Foxtel, 6th highest on FTA and crowds are sustainably increasing YOY.
View attachment 82772
View attachment 82773
* I used the MRS stats in the top photo to take away Magic round crowds, the two missing crowds for 2023 were the Docklands games (26k and 20k). So really 200k this year in Melbourne for an average of 18k.

They aren’t third in ratings in Melbourne

 

[Canard]

What's PNG going to rate on TV?

Answer: Dogshit

 

[MugaB]

What's PNG going to rate on TV?

Answer: Dogshit

 

[Canard]

View attachment 82784

It's Facts, not Feelings

 

[Maximus]

That’s why the Perth glory and western force are booming

This is the true rugby league fan that people in the Vegas thread talk about all the time. Thinks our game is less popular than union and soccer.

 

[Perth Red]

Bizarre donkey keeps quoting how healthy lions audience is in Brisbane but doesn’t believe nrl could carve out a similar audience in Perth. It’s like he has no faith in our game

 

[Wb1234]

Bizarre donkey keeps quoting how healthy lions audience is in Brisbane but doesn’t believe nrl could carve out a similar audience in Perth. It’s like he has no faith in our game

That’s you talking about any bid that isn’t Perth tbf

 

[nko11]

That’s why the Perth glory and western force are booming

If you were taking cues for crowds and success from those two leagues, you wouldn't expand anywhere. Imagine the AFL not expanding to Brisbane because the Roar and Reds are going poorly. If anything it's a big plus, strike while the market is open.

They aren’t third in ratings in Melbourne

You're right they're first (in the context we're talking about). In the context you're saying it in, sure they're not getting 100k a game. But obviously to be the third highest rating team on PTV, where the majority of our TV deal comes from, whatever drop off in viewers from QLD and NSW is low enough that the Victorian numbers more than make up for it. I don't think Fox particularly cares if the viewers are majority from one place or another, as long as people are watching that means the consumer is finding value in the product.

You're using the national FTA and PTV ratings for the Storm and ignoring what they draw in Melbourne on FTA.

Based on data we have available, Storm averaged 33k viewers in Melbourne this year on FTA. The only year Foxtel provided a metropolitan breakdown of ratings was in 2017. Storm averaged 14k viewers on Foxtel and 21k on FTA in 2017. The Foxtel ratings for Perth were about 5k in 2017.

Brisbane Tigers make their bid to be 18th team

By the writers own admission, this is just a speculative off season article. Yes but you forgot the most important information to consider when deciding to believe the article. Does it fit the story you want to tell?

forums.leagueunlimited.com

This year the Broncos and Dolphins averaged 170k and 126k in Brisbane on FTA, with the Cowboys and Titans drawing an average of 131k. Overall, the FTA ratings were 111k in Brisbane and 12k in Melbourne. Based on this data, we can safely say that Brisbane is vastly more valuable to the broadcasters than Melbourne. For Perth, the overall FTA average was just 8k.

State of the Game 2023: NRL & NRLW TV Ratings, Attendances, Social Media, Memberships and Finance - Sports Industry AU

Well after one of the best grand finals seen in many a year, its time to say goodbye to the NRL season and hello to the forthcoming internationals, but first we take a good look at the metrics from what was a record breaking season for the National Rugby League. Attendance its all good news...

www.footyindustry.com

Western Australian companies aren't going to spend a lot of money on a Perth-based team that's watched by 20k or so Western Australians. This year the overall average FTA rating for an AwFuL game in Perth was just 45k and 74k for the Eagles and 69k for the Dockers. In Brisbane, the FTA average for the Lions was 48k and 30k overall, with just 22k tuning in to see the Suns.

Perth really doesn't provide much value to the broadcasters. The GDP per capita is worthless when the bulk of Perth's population isn't willing to invest their time and money on rugby league. It's the same problem the Reds faced in 1995.

So in 6 years the Storm have increased FTA rating average by 57%. Pretty good growth.

As said in the above paragraph, if people from QLD and NSW are still going to watch in good enough numbers that they're still rating 3rd and 6th, then what's the difference to them if they're a QLD or Perth team. A Perth team has more chance of adding viewership away from rusted on supporters who watch 8 games a week.

Also adds value, in the way that if their AFL team is doing poorly, instead of cancelling Kayo, that 20-30k might decide to keep it to watch the WA NRL team. Diversifies away some risk for Perth based subscribers.

Most sponsorship $ doesn't come from small local businesses anymore. These are national leagues with national brands now. How many of the below are solely Brisbane or Melbourne based companies.
Lions..................................................Storm

With the size of it's economy and only 2 teams in what I would class as Australia's premier leagues, I'd hazard a guess that there is decent level of local corporate support still available. State Government support will also definitely be there. There isn't another competition or league that will give them the access to the Sydney and Brisbane market like the NRL. That's why they've paid the big $$$ for State of Origin to be played there. Imagine week in week out visibility.

The GSP for WA has more than tripled since 1995, from ~115Bill->377Bll. Small change of circumstances.

 

[Canard]

Bizarre donkey keeps quoting how healthy lions audience is in Brisbane but doesn’t believe nrl could carve out a similar audience in Perth. It’s like he has no faith in our game

It would be good to see the ratio of TV audience to crowd average.

Looking here it states the Eagles had crowds of 57k (2018) and 53k (2019) pre covid, and despite having one of the all time worst seasons 42k in 2023.

West Coast Eagles Crowds and Match Attendances

West Coast Eagles match attendances. Includes current season and historical data and statistics.

www.footywire.com

It stands to reason that TV figures would be lower when getting crowds 2 and 3 times bigger then the NRL and AFL in Brisbane.

It also shows that there is much more of an attendance culture in Perth then Brisbane. And as @Get Rid of The Donkeys quite rightfully points out, this active fan is much more valuable then the passive TV watcher.

 

[Canard]

If you were taking cues for crowds and success from those two leagues, you wouldn't expand anywhere. Imagine the AFL not expanding to Brisbane because the Roar and Reds are going poorly. If anything it's a big plus, strike while the market is open.

View attachment 82786View attachment 82787


You're right they're first (in the context we're talking about). In the context you're saying it in, sure they're not getting 100k a game. But obviously to be the third highest rating team on PTV, where the majority of our TV deal comes from, whatever drop off in viewers from QLD and NSW is low enough that the Victorian numbers more than make up for it. I don't think Fox particularly cares if the viewers are majority from one place or another, as long as people are watching that means the consumer is finding value in the product.




So in 6 years the Storm have increased FTA rating average by 57%. Pretty good growth.

As said in the above paragraph, if people from QLD and NSW are still going to watch in good enough numbers that they're still rating 3rd and 6th, then what's the difference to them if they're a QLD or Perth team. A Perth team has more chance of adding viewership away from rusted on supporters who watch 8 games a week.

Also adds value, in the way that if their AFL team is doing poorly, instead of cancelling Kayo, that 20-30k might decide to keep it to watch the WA NRL team. Diversifies away some risk for Perth based subscribers.

Most sponsorship $ doesn't come from small local businesses anymore. These are national leagues with national brands now. How many of the below are solely Brisbane or Melbourne based companies.
Lions..................................................Storm
View attachment 82789View attachment 82790
With the size of it's economy and only 2 teams in what I would class as Australia's premier leagues, I'd hazard a guess that there is decent level of local corporate support still available. State Government support will also definitely be there. There isn't another competition or league that will give them the access to the Sydney and Brisbane market like the NRL. That's why they've paid the big $$$ for State of Origin to be played there. Imagine week in week out visibility.

The GSP for WA has more than tripled since 1995, from ~115Bill->377Bll. Small change of circumstances.

Nailed it.

 

[Wb1234]

If you were taking cues for crowds and success from those two leagues, you wouldn't expand anywhere. Imagine the AFL not expanding to Brisbane because the Roar and Reds are going poorly. If anything it's a big plus, strike while the market is open.

View attachment 82786View attachment 82787


You're right they're first (in the context we're talking about). In the context you're saying it in, sure they're not getting 100k a game. But obviously to be the third highest rating team on PTV, where the majority of our TV deal comes from, whatever drop off in viewers from QLD and NSW is low enough that the Victorian numbers more than make up for it. I don't think Fox particularly cares if the viewers are majority from one place or another, as long as people are watching that means the consumer is finding value in the product.




So in 6 years the Storm have increased FTA rating average by 57%. Pretty good growth.

As said in the above paragraph, if people from QLD and NSW are still going to watch in good enough numbers that they're still rating 3rd and 6th, then what's the difference to them if they're a QLD or Perth team. A Perth team has more chance of adding viewership away from rusted on supporters who watch 8 games a week.

Also adds value, in the way that if their AFL team is doing poorly, instead of cancelling Kayo, that 20-30k might decide to keep it to watch the WA NRL team. Diversifies away some risk for Perth based subscribers.

Most sponsorship $ doesn't come from small local businesses anymore. These are national leagues with national brands now. How many of the below are solely Brisbane or Melbourne based companies.
Lions..................................................Storm
View attachment 82789View attachment 82790
With the size of it's economy and only 2 teams in what I would class as Australia's premier leagues, I'd hazard a guess that there is decent level of local corporate support still available. State Government support will also definitely be there. There isn't another competition or league that will give them the access to the Sydney and Brisbane market like the NRL. That's why they've paid the big $$$ for State of Origin to be played there. Imagine week in week out visibility.

The GSP for WA has more than tripled since 1995, from ~115Bill->377Bll. Small change of circumstances.

So despite a booming economy in Perth the only sport that has benefitted is afl

the storm were put onto Melbourne to grow the game in Melbourne. Since they haven’t grown juniors or tv ratings (in Victoria) meaningfully it’s a failure

 

[Wb1234]

Lies damned lies and statistics

 

[Canard]

So despite a booming economy in Perth the only sport that has benefitted is afl

the storm were put onto Melbourne to grow the game in Melbourne. Since they haven’t grown juniors or tv ratings (in Victoria) meaningfully it’s a failure

RL wasn't even shown live on TV a decade ago in Melbourne.

Now it's the biggest TV market besides Sydney and Brisbane

 

[mongoose]

You're right they're first (in the context we're talking about). In the context you're saying it in, sure they're not getting 100k a game. But obviously to be the third highest rating team on PTV, where the majority of our TV deal comes from, whatever drop off in viewers from QLD and NSW is low enough that the Victorian numbers more than make up for it. I don't think Fox particularly cares if the viewers are majority from one place or another, as long as people are watching that means the consumer is finding value in the product.

we've been trying to tell him this, he doesn't get it

 

[Wb1234]

we've been trying to tell him this, he doesn't get it

Usa gdp growth rate 6 percent and gdp per capita 70k

America should get an nrl team

 

[Colk]

Usa gdp growth rate 6 percent and gdp per capita 70k

America should get an nrl team

If you can find a way to get around flights of up to 20 hours and time differences of up to 17 hours then go right ahead.

 

[Wb1234]

If you can find a way to get around flights of up to 20 hours and time differences of up to 17 hours then go right ahead.

Five hour flights will be a breeze in the park

 

[Colk]

Five hour flights will be a breeze in the park

Compared to that it definitely is.