18th club, whose next?

[Wb1234]

Compared to that it definitely is.

Wasn’t just the flight times I was also getting at

it was like Perth america already has an entrenched football code

 

[nko11]

@nko11
Can you do one for Victoria2 (or Melbourne 2) aswell... as you mentioned PNG 1st should sort out the player pool issue, then its just about picking the areas based on your metrics after for the remaining 2 licences
Pretending that there is a Victoria 2 bid, yes?

Melbourne/Vic2 -
Population of Entire Market: 6,704,300 (/2 = 3,352,150)
Population of Direct Market: 5,031,195 (/2 = 2,515,598)
Current Growth rate: 1.49%

GDP: $458.895 billion (/2 = 229.45 Billion)
GDP per Capita: $68,996
GDP growth rate: 5.66%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 29,500

You do also have to take into account the 10 AFL Teams. Bit more of a busy market. My opinion for a second Vic team, would be to wait and collate attendance and TV data for the next little while. If the trends are still good, or if say the Storm are packing out Aami Park every game, with continued growth in TV audiences, I can't see why they wouldn't be a very strong option.

Taking out the first few years of new team shine, the line of best fit gives a pretty clear idea of trajectory. Will be some ups and downs with form, but the fact 2023 had a far higher average then all premiership years its a good sign.

It would be good to see the ratio of TV audience to crowd average.

Looking here it states the Eagles had crowds of 57k (2018) and 53k (2019) pre covid, and despite having one of the all time worst seasons 42k in 2023.

West Coast Eagles Crowds and Match Attendances

West Coast Eagles match attendances. Includes current season and historical data and statistics.

www.footywire.com

It stands to reason that TV figures would be lower when getting crowds 2 and 3 times bigger then the NRL and AFL in Brisbane.

It also shows that there is much more of an attendance culture in Perth then Brisbane. And as @Get Rid of The Donkeys quite rightfully points out, this active fan is much more valuable then the passive TV watcher.

Also happened to be a year when both WA teams were trash, with the bigger of the two getting pasted week in week out. in 2020, a more average year, the averages were 92,000 for average AFL game. Fremantle averaged 108,000 viewers per match, while West Coast averaged 143,000 per game.
(Kudos to @The_Wookie your website is fantastic for data)

Lies damned lies and statistics

Or Relevant data that allows forecasting. I hope the NRL isn't going off just vibes.

 

[Wb1234]

Melbourne/Vic2 -
Population of Entire Market: 6,704,300 (/2 = 3,352,150)
Population of Direct Market: 5,031,195 (/2 = 2,515,598)
Current Growth rate: 1.49%

GDP: $458.895 billion (/2 = 229.45 Billion)
GDP per Capita: $68,996
GDP growth rate: 5.66%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 29,500

You do also have to take into account the 10 AFL Teams. Bit more of a busy market. My opinion for a second Vic team, would be to wait and collate attendance and TV data for the next little while. If the trends are still good, or if say the Storm are packing out Aami Park every game, with continued growth in TV audiences, I can't see why they wouldn't be a very strong option.
View attachment 82797
Taking out the first few years of new team shine, the line of best fit gives a pretty clear idea of trajectory. Will be some ups and downs with form, but the fact 2023 had a far higher average then all premiership years its a good sign.


Also happened to be a year when both WA teams were trash, with the bigger of the two getting pasted week in week out. in 2020, a more average year, the averages were 92,000 for average AFL game. Fremantle averaged 108,000 viewers per match, while West Coast averaged 143,000 per game.
(Kudos to @The_Wookie your website is fantastic for data)



Or Relevant data that allows forecasting. I hope the NRL isn't going off just vibes.

You should work on the Perth bid

someone might believe this bs

every football code has failed in Perth including rugby league except the entrenched afl

the economic benefit is going to the entrenched afl

As Melbourne has shown growing in an afl market is tough

 

[nko11]

You should work on the Perth bid

someone might believe this bs

every football code has failed in Perth including rugby league except the entrenched afl

the economic benefit is going to the entrenched afl

As Melbourne has shown growing in an afl market is tough

Honestly have no preconceived bias, apart from wanting to see the league and sport grow into what it should be.
Yeah it is hard, I don't think anyone would argue against that. But to properly grow you need to go into new hostile markets. Companies don't grow because they stay in their own safe small space.

 

[Wb1234]

Honestly have no preconceived bias, apart from wanting to see the league and sport grow into what it should be.
Yeah it is hard, I don't think anyone would argue against that. But to properly grow you need to go into new hostile markets. Companies don't grow because they stay in their own safe small space.

So your stats are misleading

 

[Wb1234]

That’s the difference all the population growth in Brisbane will benefit rugby league not afl

 

[Colk]

That’s the difference all the population growth in Brisbane will benefit rugby league not afl

Really? All of it?

 

[Colk]

So your stats are misleading

How are they misleading?

 

[Wb1234]

How are they misleading?

Because afl will be the beneficiary

 

[Wb1234]

Western Sydney population will boom by millions hence why the afl put in gws

they will get zero benefit

 

[Colk]

Western Sydney population will boom by millions hence why the afl put in gws

they will get zero benefit

Won’t they?

You do realise that population expands from migration as well as birth rates.

In order for you to categorically say that there is no benefit you would have to determine that nobody from fumbleball states are going to move to Western Sydney? Or even that anybody who moves there or grows up there won’t like fumbleball. That’s unlikely. They might not get heaps of persons but it is unlikely to say that there is zero benefit.

You can use the same argument in reverse for Queensland. Not all population growth in QLD will come from Queensland itself or Western Australia from West Australians themselves so the idea that only one code will benefit from population growth is a bit silly.

 

[Bukowski]

Honestly have no preconceived bias, apart from wanting to see the league and sport grow into what it should be.
Yeah it is hard, I don't think anyone would argue against that. But to properly grow you need to go into new hostile markets. Companies don't grow because they stay in their own safe small space.

Don't bother with him, he's got a closed mind.

Thanks for your posts though, great breakdown.

 

[Wb1234]

Won’t they?

You do realise that population expands from migration as well as birth rates.

In order for you to categorically say that there is no benefit you would have to determine that nobody from fumbleball states are going to move to Western Sydney? Or even that anybody who moves there or grows up there won’t like fumbleball. That’s unlikely. They might not get heaps of persons but it is unlikely to say that there is zero benefit.

You can use the same argument in reverse for Queensland. Not all population growth in QLD will come from Queensland itself or Western Australia from West Australians themselves so the idea that only one code will benefit from population growth is a bit silly.

Gws will probably be dead in ten years

all that extra population growth in beisbane will go to rugby league like in Perth it will benefit afl

why brisbane 3 makes sense get in before the boom.

Victorian kids in qld become league fans like their mates

 

[mongoose]

Gws will probably be dead in ten years

all that extra population growth in beisbane will go to rugby league like in Perth it will benefit afl

why brisbane 3 makes sense get in before the boom.

Victorian kids in qld become league fans like their mates

Lions, GWS and Suns will all fold soon according to this peanut LOL No wonder he is so anti-expansion

 

[MugaB]

It's Facts, not Feelings

Your trolling is dogshit, thats also fact karenard

 

[MugaB]

Melbourne/Vic2 -
Population of Entire Market: 6,704,300 (/2 = 3,352,150)
Population of Direct Market: 5,031,195 (/2 = 2,515,598)
Current Growth rate: 1.49%

GDP: $458.895 billion (/2 = 229.45 Billion)
GDP per Capita: $68,996
GDP growth rate: 5.66%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 29,500

You do also have to take into account the 10 AFL Teams. Bit more of a busy market. My opinion for a second Vic team, would be to wait and collate attendance and TV data for the next little while. If the trends are still good, or if say the Storm are packing out Aami Park every game, with continued growth in TV audiences, I can't see why they wouldn't be a very strong option.
View attachment 82797
Taking out the first few years of new team shine, the line of best fit gives a pretty clear idea of trajectory. Will be some ups and downs with form, but the fact 2023 had a far higher average then all premiership years its a good sign.


Also happened to be a year when both WA teams were trash, with the bigger of the two getting pasted week in week out. in 2020, a more average year, the averages were 92,000 for average AFL game. Fremantle averaged 108,000 viewers per match, while West Coast averaged 143,000 per game.
(Kudos to @The_Wookie your website is fantastic for data)



Or Relevant data that allows forecasting. I hope the NRL isn't going off just vibes.

So if going off all this data the last two teams (19 & 20) should be Vic2 and Perth, right?

 

[Colk]

So if going off this data the last two teams (19 & 20) should be Vic2 and Perth, right?

That’s a big call.

 

[MugaB]

That’s a big call.

Its a call i made over a month ago...
its 18. Png, 19. Vic2 20. Perfffff

 

[Colk]

Gws will probably be dead in ten years

all that extra population growth in beisbane will go to rugby league like in Perth it will benefit afl

why brisbane 3 makes sense get in before the boom.

Victorian kids in qld become league fans like their mates

At least you said probably.

Nobody can make that assumption or prediction. As I said people will consume whatever they like because none of these areas are dictatorships.

In any case, if all Victorian kids in QLD become league fans (and I’m assuming people from other fumbleball states are part of this theory as well) why are you and others arguing that we definitely need a third Brisbane team ASAP to kill the Lions off? Wouldn’t they die of natural attrition anyway?

 

[Wb1234]

Lions, GWS and Suns will all fold soon according to this peanut LOL No wonder he is so anti-expansion

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