2023-2028 next tv deal discussion

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Yeh I dont see how the low cost streaming service can make it work. Even if they charged $20 a month they’d have to get over 1.25million subscribers to turn a profit. Fox is going to face the same problem as more people migrate from foxtel to kayo over the coming years. Maybe we will see ads brought into the game coverage like in fta more and more?

That's one possibility. I think Foxtel will have to reduce the amount of sports they cover to make a profit from Kayo. They've already shed A-League, SANZAAR, IndyCar and other second-tier motorsports, IPL, NHL and NBL. I think they'll get to the point of having to choose between AwFuL or NRL or Cricket Australia, as there's no way they'll be able to afford them all when customers are only paying $25 a month.

Another option is they saddle up with a rival streaming company to share content. They won't want to do this, but if it's a choice between this or having none of the major sports then they will reluctantly do it. We might get to the point where streaming companies buy the rights to portions of a sport, such as Monday Night Football. It will suck for us fans if it goes that way because we will have to purchase multiple subscriptions to see all matches.

 

[The_Wookie]

5hey e

got plenty of options because they aren’t afraid to cover the costs of a poorly supported club for a long time.
perth3, Darwin, tassie, canberra, brisbane2 all options if they want to throw another $30mill a year at a club or three. I guess if tv is paying for it like it did for suns and gws then they won’t care what it costs. If it isn’t bluster and ten/paramount are prepared to pay more than $473 mill a year then they will be very cashed up again.

Im quite confident there'll never be a NSW3 or Brisbane2. League will cap out at 20 teams unless it goes to private investors.

 

[flippikat]

3 new teams in five years after the nrl just added the dolphins ? Lmao

If broadcasters want it, it'll happen - maybe not within 5 years, but 10? Quite possible.

There's already some strong arguments that NZ 2 will help fill that pesky 6pm Sydney (8pm NZ) Friday slot.. if that's the go, then the next appealing prospect for TV could well be Perth (big TV market, chance for regular late games),

After that a toss-up between Adelaide, Brisbane 3 & NZ 3 as 20th team.. depending on what TV/streaming values the most, and whether any team has relocated or been replaced in the interim.

 

[flippikat]

Im quite confident there'll never be a NSW3 or Brisbane2. League will cap out at 20 teams unless it goes to private investors.

I'm thinking that AFL will add Tasmania & WA 3, and push for relocation of an existing team to Canberra - whether that's the Giants or a Melbourne club.

 

[Colk]

I'm thinking that AFL will add Tasmania & WA 3, and push for relocation of an existing team to Canberra - whether that's the Giants or a Melbourne club.

If they were ever going to move anybody, I’d reckon they would move their GC club

 

[Iamback]

Disagree

I actually think the nrl should be aiming for 20 teams at a minimum if not 22

I do think after 18 teams afl doesn’t have the player depth but they have the crowds

We have NZ to go and potentially the pacific Islands.

They are in everywhere that can take a side

 

[Iamback]

If broadcasters want it, it'll happen - maybe not within 5 years, but 10? Quite possible.

There's already some strong arguments that NZ 2 will help fill that pesky 6pm Sydney (8pm NZ) Friday slot.. if that's the go, then the next appealing prospect for TV could well be Perth (big TV market, chance for regular late games),

After that a toss-up between Adelaide, Brisbane 3 & NZ 3 as 20th team.. depending on what TV/streaming values the most, and whether any team has relocated or been replaced in the interim.

In this order

NZ2
Perth
Ipswich

by that time. The pacific side in Super Rugby has had time to monitor.

RL would of had a good look at PNG and Fiji in 2nd tier comps and maybe a pacific side is viable in NRL

If not still have 10 games a week. Better internationals and better 2nd tier footy to sell

 

[Wb1234]

In this order

NZ2
Perth
Ipswich

by that time. The pacific side in Super Rugby has had time to monitor.

RL would of had a good look at PNG and Fiji in 2nd tier comps and maybe a pacific side is viable in NRL

If not still have 10 games a week. Better internationals and better 2nd tier footy to sell

The pipe dream imo is 24 teams

2 conferences playing home and away
Finals to be based on a top 5 system
Which allows both Sydney and Brisbane to have a grand final
Super bowl for the overall winner to be held in the city which bids the highest

 

[Wb1234]

Im quite confident there'll never be a NSW3 or Brisbane2. League will cap out at 20 teams unless it goes to private investors.

somewhere like Newcastle would be massive for afl. Not just for growing the game in nsw and because the hunter has a good population but because it fills in the map between Sydney and Gold Coast.

there’s an excellent cricket ground in the heart of the city (knights ground is outside the city)

 

[Colk]

somewhere like Newcastle would be massive for afl. Not just for growing the game in nsw and because the hunter has a good population but because it fills in the map between Sydney and Gold Coast.

there’s an excellent cricket ground in the heart of the city (knights ground is outside the city)

Newcastle Sports Ground is a nice cricket oval but it would definitely need a redevelopment if they got a licence. Also upgrades to parking would be necessary

 

[Perth Red]

Newcastle Sports Ground is a nice cricket oval but it would definitely need a redevelopment if they got a licence. Also upgrades to parking would be necessary

I sure the NSW Govt would build it for them lol
All the rumblings in the media here are they want a 20 team comp by the time the Tv deal for 2027 comes round. Tassie will be team 19 given the Govt there has basically agreed to pay for it. Team 20 becomes much trickier with no clear and obvious location. Perth3 is 10-15 years away at least, if ever, NT is too small, Canberra damages the Giants, Brisbane2 highly unlikely as Lions and Suns struggling. Cant see a RL mad small city like Newcastle being viable so who knows where they go. Their big problem is its expensive to run a AFL club and needs around $50mill a year revenue for a club to be sustainable and smaller regional markets just cant produce that sort of income.
Meantime we must have team 18 in by 2026 so we can sell the ninth game in the next rights. Ideally to FTA to maximise the value.

 

[Wb1234]

I sure the NSW Govt would build it for them lol
All the rumblings in the media here are they want a 20 team comp by the time the Tv deal for 2027 comes round. Tassie will be team 19 given the Govt there has basically agreed to pay for it. Team 20 becomes much trickier with no clear and obvious location. Perth3 is 10-15 years away at least, if ever, NT is too small, Canberra damages the Giants, Brisbane2 highly unlikely as Lions and Suns struggling. Cant see a RL mad small city like Newcastle being viable so who knows where they go. Their big problem is its expensive to run a AFL club and needs around $50mill a year revenue for a club to be sustainable and smaller regional markets just cant produce that sort of income.
Meantime we must have team 18 in by 2026 so we can sell the ninth game in the next rights. Ideally to FTA to maximise the value.

If the dolphins can sign a decent squad and are somewhat competitive on the field (not a bottom four finish) then 2025 is when I think we add the next one

they will renegotiate the tv deals then with the carrot of a new team and knowing how much extra afl got

 

[Perth Red]

If the dolphins can sign a decent squad and are somewhat competitive on the field (not a bottom four finish) then 2025 is when I think we add the next one

they will renegotiate the tv deals then with the carrot of a new team and knowing how much extra afl got

Traditionally we've tended to go into Tv renegotiations around 2 years or so before the next deal kicks in. I'd expect negotiations to be underway in 2025 with a new team added for the new deal commencing 2027. That will give them a couple of seasons to see if Dolphins are competitive without weakening the other clubs. As we are seeing with Dolphins recruitment a new club really needs at least 2 full years to build a squad for starting up.

 

[Colk]

Traditionally we've tended to go into Tv renegotiations around 2 years or so before the next deal kicks in. I'd expect negotiations to be underway in 2025 with a new team added for the new deal commencing 2027. That will give them a couple of seasons to see if Dolphins are competitive without weakening the other clubs. As we are seeing with Dolphins recruitment a new club really needs at least 2 full years to build a squad for starting up.

Exactly. Hopefully they learn their lesson. Give 2-3 years lead up to give enough time to build a decent squad

 

[Perth Red]

Exactly. Hopefully they learn their lesson. Give 2-3 years lead up to give enough time to build a decent squad

And some concessions!

 

[flippikat]

If they were ever going to move anybody, I’d reckon they would move their GC club

It makes sense for AFL to consider that.. however, they're in a game of "chicken" with the NRL over the Gold Coast.. the feeling seems to be "who blinks first & relocates their GC team will yield that location to the other code".

Funny, though - because I wonder if the Suns would be better for being based in North Queensland or NT. (Maybe Cairns, with a few games per year in Darwin?)

 

[Wb1234]

It makes sense for AFL to consider that.. however, they're in a game of "chicken" with the NRL over the Gold Coast.. the feeling seems to be "who blinks first & relocates their GC team will yield that location to the other code".

Funny, though - because I wonder if the Suns would be better for being based in North Queensland or NT. (Maybe Cairns, with a few games per year in Darwin?)

When it comes to recent recent expansion the afl is reactionary

they copied the arlc after they added the titans

now the arlc added the dolphins the afl is doing the same

the difference is the nrl is actually adding valuable clubs whilst the afl is just spending hundreds of millions on zombie clubs

 

[Perth Red]

I'm sure if the Lions had been as successful s the Swans they'd be looking to Brisbane2 on the back of the $1billion Gabba upgrade thats planned. As is the Lions still need a high grant to survive and youd think a second Brisbane would be even worse.
They reckon the sale of the ninth game netted them an increase of $54mill a year on TV deal which basically just covers the costs of Suns and GWS. They'd have to be getting at least another $50mill plus to cover two smaller market teams you'd think. Be interesting to see what their new CEO is like and if he as gung ho on expansion or goes for AFL areas for teams 19 and 20.

 

[Wb1234]

I'm sure if the Lions had been as successful s the Swans they'd be looking to Brisbane2 on the back of the $1billion Gabba upgrade thats planned. As is the Lions still need a high grant to survive and youd think a second Brisbane would be even worse.
They reckon the sale of the ninth game netted them an increase of $54mill a year on TV deal which basically just covers the costs of Suns and GWS. They'd have to be getting at least another $50mill plus to cover two smaller market teams you'd think. Be interesting to see what their new CEO is like and if he as gung ho on expansion or goes for AFL areas for teams 19 and 20.

What do you mean ? They were gifted 3 straight grand finals by the afl. The swans had exactly the same concessions

the addition of the dolphins is going to be a disaster for the suns and lions. I bet the afl has to increase funding to these basket cases by 10 to 15 pa in total to keep them alive

 

[Perth Red]

What do you mean ? They were gifted 3 straight grand finals by the afl. The swans had exactly the same concessions

the addition of the dolphins is going to be a disaster for the suns and lions. I bet the afl has to increase funding to these basket cases by 10 to 15 pa in total to keep them alive

I meant off the field.
In what way? In fans leaving AFL to watch the Dolphins or in sponsors leaving Lions to sponsor Dolphins instead? Itd be hard to tell for a while re fans as they seem to have the biggest band wagon fans in Australia with crowds going up and down from highs of 33k to a low of 16k!