The Game 2023 Crowd Watch

[Omott91]

Sunday arvo footy in front of a full house in Newy. Great sight.

I was there, great game and awesome atmosphere.

 

[Ride the Lion to Zion]

No. Teams finishing 17th has only happened 3 times before (95,96,98). Been a while since someone finished 17th.

I knew there was a fatal flaw in my argument.

The NRL should have abolished 17th place when the Dolphins came in. Like some skyscrapers don't have a thirteenth floor.

 

[Ride the Lion to Zion]

No, if you’ve read my other post you would have noticed I said they have been a complete rabble off the field for the last 10+ years. Fans seem to have no faith in the board to turn it around at both those clubs which would be keeping people away, not just the ladder position.

Has there ever been an NRL club that didn't receive opprobrium after a wooden spoon? Even just missing the finals is deemed an affront to propriety.

If Tigers and Dragons "turn it around", I assume that means they will climb the ladder. Whereupon other clubs fall to 16th and 17th. Who then become the latest "rabbles", plunged into supposed existential crisis.

 

[The Great Dane]

I can't see us cracking 20k for a night game in August despite it being Croker's last game (most people don't really care about Wighton leaving), especially not when the team is playing like shit.

18kish if conditions are good, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's less, especially if it's windy.

 

[The Great Dane]

Has there ever been an NRL club that didn't receive opprobrium after a wooden spoon? Even just missing the finals is deemed an affront to propriety.

If Tigers and Dragons "turn it around", I assume that means they will climb the ladder. Whereupon other clubs fall to 16th and 17th. Who then become the latest "rabbles", plunged into supposed existential crisis.

There's a massive difference between missing the finals or winning a spoon and not having made the finals in over a decade.

Tim Sheens had an eleven year break in-between coaching the Tigers, and he was their coach when they last made the finals. . . Calling the Tigers administration a rabble is an understatement, and I doubt many Tigers fans would disagree.

 

[Ride the Lion to Zion]

There's a massive difference between missing the finals or winning a spoon and not having made the finals in over a decade.

Tim Sheens had an eleven year break in-between coaching the Tigers, and he was their coach when they last made the finals. . . Calling the Tigers administration a rabble is an understatement, and I doubt many Tigers fans would disagree.

I watched Tigers v Warriors and Tigers v Dolphins. Enjoyed both games. That's the bottom line for me.

Fairly narrow loss followed by very narrow win. Competitive contests despite a media and fan culture telling them they have nothing to play for.

Some of the overblown castigation implies 60 point spankings every week.

 

[jim_57]

Has there ever been an NRL club that didn't receive opprobrium after a wooden spoon? Even just missing the finals is deemed an affront to propriety.

If Tigers and Dragons "turn it around", I assume that means they will climb the ladder. Whereupon other clubs fall to 16th and 17th. Who then become the latest "rabbles", plunged into supposed existential crisis.

Yeh I get it, you think we live in an Utopia where everything is equal and teams who have been shit consistently for years and looked doomed to repeat the same failures shouldn’t see a drop in crowds. Unfortunately they do.

Titans this year are showing with a bit of optimism around a club and it’s on & off field prospects you can have healthy crowds with limited success. There is a difference between being poor on the field and the whole club being a “rabble” all the way up to the board.

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

I've just grabbed some tickets to Raiders vs Broncos. Pax 16,060.

 

[APPSY]

I've just grabbed some tickets to Raiders vs Broncos. Pax 16,060.

Probably gonna sound like a right dumbass but where do you find the PAX after buying a ticket I usually just count the seats individually as a good way to pass time

 

[horrie hastings]

Probably gonna sound like a right dumbass but where do you find the PAX after buying a ticket I usually just count the seats individually as a good way to pass time

It is usually printed on your ticket.

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

Probably gonna sound like a right dumbass but where do you find the PAX after buying a ticket I usually just count the seats individually as a good way to pass time

Bottom right of the ezyticket and mobile tickets.

Some clubs (Broncos for example) don't include their ticketed members, stadium members, and corporate sales in the PAX

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

I bought tickets the day before Raiders vs Eels and my pax was 15,500. The crowd ended up being 17,414.

Raiders vs Eels being at 16,000 with four days days to go is pretty good. I've been getting targeted ads on Facebook - but none of them have mentioned Croker and Wighton's last home game. That's a marketing miss, IMO. I understand that some Raiders fans don't care, but I would think that if 21k cared to show up to Croker's 300th at 6pm on a Friday night they might feel the same about his last, especially considering it's a Saturday 7:30pm game.

 

[Harry O]

I bought tickets the day before Raiders vs Eels and my pax was 15,500. The crowd ended up being 17,414.

Raiders vs Eels being at 16,000 with four days days to go is pretty good. I've been getting targeted ads on Facebook - but none of them have mentioned Croker and Wighton's last home game. That's a marketing miss, IMO. I understand that some Raiders fans don't care, but I would think that if 21k cared to show up to Croker's 300th at 6pm on a Friday night they might feel the same about his last, especially considering it's a Saturday 7:30pm game.

Where were you sitting and how much were the tickets?
I bought tickets 6 tickets,3 adults and 3 children and it was a tad over a $100 for behind the sticks for last round clash, Bunnies and roosters..

 

[Sky_Is_The_Limit]

There's an SMH article this evening that suggests Souths was/is hoping for a crowd of 50,000 at Accor Stadium vs the Roosters next Friday night:

Latrell laments lapse in discipline after hard work to remove ‘grubby stuff’

The apologetic Souths star says missing next week’s key clash with the Roosters ‘hurts the most’ after being suspended for his high shot on Tyson Frizell.

www.smh.com.au

Considering Souths also expected a crowd of 40,000 for the Indigenous Round crowd vs the Eels at Allianz Stadium (and ended up with a crowd that was 69% the size of that - 27,432), the same marketing/media ploy might suggest a crowd of up to 35,000 for the Roosters game.

And just as a reality check for even that number, there's still no tickets on sale on level 4 at Accor.

 

[Cumberland Throw]

There's an SMH article this evening that suggests Souths was/is hoping for a crowd of 50,000 at Accor Stadium vs the Roosters next Friday night:

Latrell laments lapse in discipline after hard work to remove ‘grubby stuff’

The apologetic Souths star says missing next week’s key clash with the Roosters ‘hurts the most’ after being suspended for his high shot on Tyson Frizell.

www.smh.com.au

View attachment 78394

Considering Souths also expected a crowd of 40,000 for the Indigenous Round crowd vs the Eels at Allianz Stadium (and ended up with a crowd that was 69% the size of that - 27,432), the same marketing/media ploy might suggest a crowd of up to 35,000 for the Roosters game.

And just as a reality check for even that number, there's still no tickets on sale on level 4 at Accor.

Pax is currently 15473 for rabbit v rooster

 

[Cumberland Throw]

So if we include each game at magic round as individual crowds, the current attendance is at
3,633,246, with the average attendance being 19,325 per game. In order to reach the illustrious 20,000+ for the 213 game season including finals, we'd need to reach 4,260,000 spectators.

Heres how we can do so:
Round 26:
Panthers vs Eels - 18k (hopeful number for a Thursday clash that should still push for higher than that.)
Warriors vs Dragons - 24k (assuming the same amount show up as last week for the sell out)
Phins vs Cowboys - 35k ( using @SLRBRONCOS numbers which have never been wrong yet)
Storm vs Titans - 15k (hopeful number I know, especially since there's an AFL game on before hand at MCG)
Roosters vs Tigers - 18k (unsure how this one will sell but anything below 18k will be shocking for the Roosters faithful)
Raiders vs Bronx - 20k (could be more? Could be less?)
Bulldogs vs Manly - 13k (could honestly be less. I do not know how Accor selling works)
Knights vs Sharks - 29000 (going off the sell out against bunnies)
Round total - 167,000
Season total - 3,800,246 (will differ as it wont be EXACT numbers) avg. - 19,389 (196 games)

Round 27:
Broncos vs Storm - 42k (again, a very hopeful number for a thursday; If this was Friday 8pm this would push for 50k IMO, and it could be a game that decides the minor prem)
Manly vs Tigers - 10k
Rabbitohs vs Roosters - 35k (Since this'll be a match to decide 8th again, it should draw around 35-40k, but depends who wants to make the travel to Accor, and it could be much less)
Phins vs Warriors - 30k (I trust the Warriors faithful to travel for this one, could potentially be more)
Panthers vs Cowboys - 20k (Should come close to selling out as this could be the game that decides the minor prem)
Dragons vs Knights - 15k (Knights fans should travel well for this one, but won't sell it out)
Titans vs Bulldogs - 12k (Could be less)
Sharks vs Raiders - 12k (Capped sell out surely?)
Round total - 176,000
Season Total - 3,976,246 (Won't be EXACT) avg. 19,491 (204 games)

Now, Let's say HYPOTHETICALLY, the ladder finishes like this (FOR MAX CROWD PURPOSES ONLY)
1. Panthers
2. Broncos
3. Warriors
4. Storm
5. Knights (Win their remaining games)
6. Raiders (Lose to Broncos but barely past sharks)
7. Sharks (Lose their remaining games)
8. Bunnies / Roosters (Cannot pick this one for the life of me)

Week One of Finals:
Panthers vs Storm - 21,000 (Sellout) I do not see Panthers dropping this game.
Broncos vs Warriors - 51,000 (Going of Broncos 2015 finals run numbers, plus Wahs draw well) Could go either way.
Knights vs Bunnies / Roosters - 29,000 (going off similar number from this week too) Unknown.
Raiders vs Sharks - 24,000 (same match up two weeks in a row I know.. not the first time it's happened between these two teams though, happened in 2020 and using similar Raiders final crowds to determine) Sharks get revenge this week?
Week One Total - 125,000
Season total - 4,101,246 (Wont be EXACT number) avg. 19,717 (208 games)

If Panthers and Broncos win, Week 2 should look like:
Storm vs Knights/Roosters/Bunnies - 20k (Using recent Storm final numbers could be more)
Warriors vs Raiders/Sharks - 25k OR 45k (if they use Eden Park, could be more if they do)
Week 2 Total - 45,000 OR 65,000 (IF they use Eden Park)
Season Total - 4,146,246 OR 4,166,246 (wont be EXACT number)avg. 19,744 OR 19,839

Let's say either Storm, Knights, Roosters, Bunnies win their game, and Warriors win theirs.
Panthers vs Warriors - 40k (If at Accor? Could be more as Panthers vs Bunnies got 50k last year)
Broncos vs Storm/Knights/Roosters/Bunnies - 51,000 (should get this easily)
Week 3 Total - 91,000
Season Total - 4,237,246 OR 4,257,246 (wont be EXACT number)avg. 19,987 OR 20,081

Grand Final: 82,000 (Going off last years and 2019)

Season Total:
4,319,246 (Could be lower, could be higher) average - 20,278 (213 games)
OR
4,339,346 (Again, could be lower, could potentially be higher?) average - 20,372 (213 games)

Please do remember all of this is Hypothetical and that it very may well not happen this exact way. Take it all with a grain of salt as I am still new to crowd predictions and this was the best determination of crowd figures for myself IF including Magic round as individual crowds.

Thanks for confirming it may not happen exactly the way you forecasted .. I wasn't sure

 

[Sky_Is_The_Limit]

Pax is currently 15473 for rabbit v rooster

Thanks for the update!

I can't be arsed going back through the thread, but does PAX include all reserved seats + General Admission + Stadium members + Rabbitohs members? Or is it just reserved seats + GA?

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

Thanks for the update!

I can't be arsed going back through the thread, but does PAX include all reserved seats + General Admission + Stadium members + Rabbitohs members? Or is it just reserved seats + GA?

Some clubs include all of those in their pax and others don’t. My guess is that this Souths pax doesn’t include them.

Broncos don’t either, but did up until the pandemic.

 

[yakstorm]

Rabbitohs members aren't included in the PAX numbers at Accor (same with Bulldogs), same with Corporates and Accor Stadium members, so potential crowd based upon current sales is a lot higher than 15K.

The unknown is how many in both those member groups may turn up, but if the match gets a bit of hype and it's fine weather, it's perfectly placed for a crowd 40K+ (Accor Stadium members have been told they'll be on Level 4 West for the match).

 

[Sky_Is_The_Limit]

Thanks for the intel team!!