I think it's difficult to compare Good Friday (with the big walk up demand like you said from the Easter Show) and King's Birthday (which is falling within a week of Origin and during Vivid, which the NRL does not leverage).
A good comparison is 2023 King's Birthday:
On Wednesday 7 June 2023, the pax was 26,776:
Many foreigners are confused that footy in Vic is completely different to footy in NSW The confuse the city of Sydney with Melbourne culture I bet they got more confused in the old days when Rugby League and Rugby Union was played on Cricket Ovals like the SCG and then you had Aussie Rules...
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View attachment 89221
Five days later, the final King's Birthday crowd was 33,866. That equates to daily ticket sales of approximately 1,418.
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The pax was 32,957 yesterday, according to The Kennel. If you apply four days of sales at last year's average rate (1,418 x 4), that equates to a projection of another 5,672 ticket sales by kickoff. It's probably fair to assert that 2024 will sell more than 2023 in the leadup, so perhaps add another 1,000 ticket sales to reflect that:
= 32,957 + 5,672 + 1,000 = 39,629.
That's still a great crowd. It'd be the best crowd for a regular season game between the Bulldogs and the Eels in 50 years.