Just an observation on the teams that are bidding or are being spoken about as potential expansion areas, there are 6 realistic bids in total:
Central Coast Bears
WA Reds
PNG (with maybe half their games in Darwin?)
2nd Brisbane
2nd NZ
Adelaide
These 6 teams can be grouped in 3 categories of 2:
RL heartland -
Central Caost Bears
2nd Brisbane
Non-RL areas -
WA Reds
Adelaide
International -
PNG
2nd NZ
Of the above teams, 2nd NZ team and PNG will be able to develop their own players (PNG has 2 million players and there are already 64 Kiwis playing in the NRL). These 2 teams will also be able to assist the Australia teams as any surplus players will be able to sign with OZ clubs.
Central Coast and 2nd Brisbane would be able to assist in retaining players in the NRL instead of going to UK Super League, as well as stimulate player participation and development in their already strong RL areas.
WA Reds has a small but proven player base that is impressive for a non-RL state and will be able to develop a small pool of players but nowhere near enough to sustain an NRL club, so most of their players will come from elsewhere. The WA Reds are better at player development than the Victoria even with the advantage of the Melbourne Storm being established for 12 years.
Adelaide is a total and complete black hole as far as players go. Thus will be a totally imported team for many, many years.
So going by the above I don't think we will have a problem finding enough players, especially as the UK Super League is cutting back on their foreign player quotas.
I think what the above shows us is that there is a massive potential for Rugby League to grow - and with it comes a huge increase in revenue. I must say the options available to the NRL for expansion areas present a terrific geographic and cultural diversity that simply doesn't exist for other codes, and in theory will be relatively easier to go into than other codes (and this doesn't include areas where RL has already enjoys a presence that other codes don't - Newcastle, Wollongong, Canberra, North Queensland, Auckland). Four great advantage the game has is that - unlike other codes that have a very hard road ahead of them in trying to estabish clubs in barren and foreign territory - 4 of the 6 potential expansion areas are either Rugby League strongholds or the game is well known and well established:
* Central Coast and 2nd Brisbane team need no introduction - they are Rugby League strongholds and tick all the boxes.
* Rugby League in PNG is a religion. They will have a problem attracting Aussies and Kiwis to live in PNG, but this problem could be solved by perhaps basing the team in Darwin and having home games split between Darwin and Port Moresby. That way it's a win-win as the NRL then gets a footprint into Darwin as well and can pretty much take over the Northern Territory from other codes.
* Rugby League in New Zealand may be in the shadow of Rugby Union but unlike expanding into non-RL states the game is still very well known in these parts and have long-established traditions and domestic structures in place. Wellington and Christchurch have close to 100+ years of RL history and have hosted Test matches and other major matches against international touring teams and supplied countless numbers of players, although nowhere near as many as Auckland.
Expanding into Adelaide and Perth will be a hard slog, but when you look at it, having a single team in a city of 1m (Adelaide) and 1.5m (Perth) there's enough people population-wise to develop support for a team. And whilst it will never become the number 1 code, the bonus for the NRL is that unlike other codes intruding onto RL turf they will be able to make a more significant impact on the populous as Adelaide and Perth are relatively small cities.
Perhaps the only other area that can be explored is a 2nd Melbourne team. I would start by immediately telling the Melbourne Storm to pull out their Central Coast Storm team from teh NSW Cup and establish a 2nd semi-professional Melbourne club to act as their NSW Cup feeder team (and if the Central Coast Bears are admitted to the NRL then they will have to vacate the Central Coast anyway). This club must be established in a key strategic and geographic area in Melbourne (for e.g. Geelong) with the intention of having this strategic area potentially being representative of an NRL club many years down the track - IF it were to come to fruition. It may take 30+ years or so and we will not know if this club is to replace a existing NRL club, but they would be a 'work in progress' and stay in the NSW Cup and IF such a time comes along that a 2nd Melbourne tam is warranted. If a 2nd Melbourne team is not warranted then they simply just remain in the NSW Cup forever more (they need a reserve grade side anyway).
In addition to a 2nd Melbourne team in the NSW Cup, expansion at a 2nd tier level can also involve having Adelaide and Perth having 2nd teams act as feeder clubs (Port Adelaide & Fremantle?). The 2nd Melbourne, Perth, and Adelaide teams would have have their own distinct geographical identitiy and with completely different names, colours and logos. These 2nd tier feeder teams can also play a significant role in assisting the game in making much-needed inroads at a grass-roots level into enemy turf - especially if the 2nd tier can be televised.
And to top it all off, Sydney teams can take 2-3 games to Tasmania each year. They we have everywhere covered.
Hopefully none of the current teams go down the gurgler, and having 22 teams isnt going to happen soon but the next 2 should be in at the time of the next TV deal. All we need now is for the NRL to put a plan in place.
