Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[Pneuma]

Well you already believe afl is getting paid 450 million pa for the afl rights by fox
lmao

He is Gil’s number 1 fan boy!

 

[Perth Red]

Well you already believe afl is getting paid 450 million pa for the afl rights by fox
lmao

Nope, I think its probably around $200mill ch7, $350mill Fox, depending if the $550mill is cash or contra included. Their CEO announced the whole lot as 'over' $4bill or $571mill a year in total cash.

Given (allegedly) Paramount were offering $600mill and Stan $500cash that would seem close to the ballpark.

the announcement was 14% over 2024 rights price for ch7. 2024 total is $476mill. Ch7 will be around $185mill in 2024. ergo around $200mill in 2025-

 

[Wb1234]

Nope, I think its probably around $200mill ch7, $350-400mill Fox, depending if the $550mill is cash not contra included.
Given Paramount were offering $600mill and Stan $500cash that would seem close to the ballpark.

the announcement was 14% over 2024 rights price for ch7. 2024 total is $476mill. Ch7 will be around $185mill in 2024. ergo around $200mill in 2025-

So foxtel are paying up to 400 million for their second rating sport

and you think they will let number one go to Stan which will crush them and see then lose most of their viewers

it would give stan the halo effect to build a network worth 8 billion or so

you know how foxtel getting the league allowed it to build a network of that value or so

 

[Perth Red]

So foxtel are paying up to 400 million for their second rating sport

and you think they will let number one go to Stan which will crush them and see then lose most of their viewers

it would give stan the halo effect to build a network worth 8 billion or so

you know how foxtel getting the league allowed it to build a network of that value or so

probably nearer $350 when I worked it out more thoroughly.
No I dont think they will unless Stan or Paramount make an offer so big that they cant match it due to current expense on AFL. Remember those orgs are only paying big for one sport, Fox will need to pay that big for two.

At what point is it no longer sustainable to carry the countries two major codes? In most countries the major cost sport is now split between different platforms not exclusive on one as its become too expensive for one carrier.

Ch9 currently only pay $110mill cash. If they, or Ch10, said they'd pay $150mill cash for 4 FTA games and $400mill cash for exclusive streaming that'd be a hard target for Fox to match you'd think?

 

[Wb1234]

Nope channel 7 didn’t increase their offer by 70 million

the reports literally said most of the increase came from foxtel

so 7 150 million
Telstra 50 million
Foxtel 440 million

gives you the 640 millio figure you said afl get

lmao

 

[Perth Red]

Nope channel 7 didn’t increase their offer by 70 million

the reports literally said most of the increase came from foxtel

so 7 150 million
Telstra 50 million
Foxtel 440 million

gives you the 640 millio figure you said afl get

lmao

Nope they clearly announced that Ch7 would be paying 14% more than the 2024 amount. Remember the 2024 amount is an uplift in the original deal to recover the covid loss period.

your calculations would put ch7 paying $129mill in 2024 which they most definitely arent.

If I was a betting man, based on everything Ive read about their deal Id say from 2025 it is around:

Ch7 $200mill cash and contra
Fox $350mill cash and contra
Combined $520mill cash + $30mill contra

Telstra $50mill cash + $43mill in kind work

In comparison to us which is from this year around:
Ch 9 $110mill cash $15mill contra
Fox $240mill cash and contra (probably around $10mill contra if previous splits hold true)
$340mill cash + $25mill contra

So our target for 2028 from Australian TV should be around $470-500mill cash plus whatever contra they want to chuck in, presuming there are interested bidders to start a price war.

 

[Wb1234]

Nope they clearly announced that Ch7 would be paying 14% more than the 2024 amount. Remember the 2024 amount is an uplift in the original deal to recover the covid loss period.

your calculations would put ch7 paying $129mill in 2024 which they most definitely arent.

If I was a betting man, based on everything Ive read about their deal Id say from 2025 it is around:

Ch7 $200mill cash and contra
Fox $350mill cash and contra
Combined $520mill cash + $30mill contra

Telstra $50mill cash + $43mill in kind work

In comparison to us which is from this year around:
Ch 9 $110mill cash $15mill contra
Fox $240mill cash and contra (probably around $10mill contra if previous splits hold true)
$340mill cash + $25mill contra

So our target for 2028 from Australian TV should be around $470-500mill cash plus whatever contra they want to chuck in, presuming there are interested bidders to start a price war.

So 550 cash and contra ? That’s supposedly the deal that makes Gil a good leader

and the only way he got the increase was the gather round and tasmania

meh

vlanyds will walk that in

 

[Perth Red]

So 550 cash and contra ? That’s supposedly the deal that makes Gil a good leader

and the only way he got the increase was the gather round and tasmania

meh

vlanyds will walk that in

Not sure if you noticed below that.
$550mill v $402mill. Thats what makes their deal soooooo much, in fact $180million cold hard cash dollars a year, better than the sht Vlandys served up.

We have 5 years to wait before he, or hopefully someone else by then, puts the monumental f**k up of 2020 right.

 

[Wb1234]

Not sure if you noticed below that.
$550mill v $402mill. Thats what makes their deal soooooo much, in fact $180million cold hard cash dollars a year, better than the sht Vlandys served up.

We have 5 years to wait before he, or hopefully someone else by then, puts the monumental f**k up of 2020 right.

550 vs 430 million if we are including contra

so nope

phew rugby league can survive now there will be no new afl onslaught

 

[Perth Red]

550 vs 430 million if we are including contra

so nope

phew rugby league can survive now there will be no new afl onslaught

1. Its not $430, no matter how much you wish it was lol
2. There's a cash gap of around $180mill in the Australian Tv components, Around $155mill if you include overseas rights for NRL. If you don't think $155mill cash a year is much then nothing I can add.
3. Or course Rl will survive, it just wont have as much money as it could have had to really thrive.

 

[Wb1234]

1. Its not $430, no matter how much you wish it was lol
2. There's a cash gap of around $180mill in the Australian Tv components, Around $155mill if you include overseas rights for NRL. If you don't think $155mill cash a year is much then nothing I can add.
3. Or course Rl will survive, it just wont have as much money as it could have had to really thrive.

Why would you penalise the nrl for having a team in nz

if you go back over the past 20 years and look at the revenue gap it’s always been massive

and where has that gotten afl ?

now vlandys is putting clubs in place to close that gap

we haven’t even gotten the real value of the dolphins reflected in our tv deals yet

 

[Iamback]

Not according to Channel 7 it isn't. There was an article in the media back around the time it was announced quoting Seven Execs saying that due to production costs, they'd just about "break even" from a financial perspective when televising them. The advertising revenue didn't seem to completely cover their costs.

That would be by choice if true, They take the International feed and call them from a Central studio. For which you get most of the country watching

 

[Iamback]

Foxtel aren’t losing their main content all they would be left with is afl for filler

Stan would crush them in winter

given foxtel turns over 2 billion pa I’m pretty confident they can afford to pay the nrl an extra 140 million pa

it all depends on stan

if they put in a decent bid then the nrl rights will end up at 550 to 600 million pa

Stan will be dead by then, Remember they lose content after this year

 

[Wb1234]

Stan will be dead by then, Remember they lose content after this year

So whose getting the union if they ditch it

foxtel wasn’t interested and would probably offer half what they get now

can’t see them dumping union before the lions tour and world cup in oz

 

[Iamback]

So whose getting the union if they ditch it

foxtel wasn’t interested and would probably offer half what they get now

can’t see them dumping union before the lions tour and world cup in oz

Depends on what Stan looks like. They might take on a merger but if they fold good question.

Not sure those events are worth $24 a month alone

 

[Perth Red]

Stan will be dead by then, Remember they lose content after this year

Stan’s just gone past binge for subscribers, by 2026 when negotiations happen they may be desperate for content which can only be good news for nrl.

 

[Wb1234]

Depends on what Stan looks like. They might take on a merger but if they fold good question.

Not sure those events are worth $24 a month alone

They’ve been bidding for other sports

Stan’s just gone past binge for subscribers, by 2026 when negotiations happen they may be desperate for content which can only be good news for nrl.

they just bid billions for afl

getting the nrl is a sure fire way of building stan into a rival of foxtel

 

[Perth Red]

Not

Why would you penalise the nrl for having a team in nz

if you go back over the past 20 years and look at the revenue gap it’s always been massive

and where has that gotten afl ?

now vlandys is putting clubs in place to close that gap

we haven’t even gotten the real value of the dolphins reflected in our tv deals yet

Not penalising anything, just comparing apples with apples in regards to Australian tv deals.
nz deal should be the cherry that takes us over afl, not the gap filler that makes it look a bit better.

if and when. been hearing it for a decade since arlc took over. The gaps bigger than ever and about to increase by another $100mill
weve been clawing the tv gap back, until Vlandys fcked us over.

 

[Wb1234]

Not

Not penalising anything, just comparing apples with apples in regards to Australian tv deals.
nz deal should be the cherry that takes us over afl, not the gap filler that makes it look a bit better.

if and when. been hearing it for a decade since arlc took over. The gaps bigger than ever and about to increase by another $100mill

So it’s the nrls fault they have a team in nz lmao

bad luck for afl they don’t have the same ambition as we do

 

[Perth Red]

So it’s the nrls fault they have a team in nz lmao

bad luck for afl they don’t have the same ambition as we do

Not sure what your arguing here? Does nrl kill afl in International rights? Yep, great news
does afl kill nrl in Australian tv rights, where 93% of nrls tv value sits? Yep they have smashed us thanks to some really shthouse decisions by Vlandys and the arlc.