Rank the Brisbane bids

[reanimate]

I don't disagree with your points about Perth and Adelaide adding credibility to the game's commercial profile. You make a lot of sense. I just cannot see the ARLC agreeing to it under its structure.

Doesn't the ARLC provide the NRL clubs, QRL and NSWRL with a lot of say over these matters?

They do have a lot of say, that’s why it’s a shame V’landys is against WA/SA expansion, he’s the closest thing to a benevolent dictator the game has had for a long time. He has the ability to strong arm people into taking the position he wants, just like Demetriou did when he headed up the AFL. All of Demetriou’s decisions to expand again into NSW and QLD weren’t universally popular in the AFL and the clubs had the ability to veto his commission’s decisions, but he’d just go mob boss on the people/clubs threatening not to support his vision and made it work.

In the eyes of the clubs and two main state bodies, any licence granter to a team from Perth or Adelaide takes money and power away from them.

It doesn’t have to, Demetriou was able to sell the long term benefits of NSW/QLD expansions to the AFL bodies and clubs by presenting a long term plan where the overall AFL pie would grow, meaning more chances of growth, sponsors etc which would in turn benefit their club.

A similar thing can be done with the RL clubs and interstate expansion.

I think RU will use its position with the corporate end of town to persuade major companies to avoid our game.

That will change in the next 20-30 years, the idea of spending big money on RU sponsorship will be a joke, as the code will be on its death bed here. We need to get ahead of that and get our share of those corporate dollars and not let them all go to the AFL. The AFL is already well ahead of RL there, they can’t be allowed to gain any more ground.

We also need to maximise our revenue from broadcast deals to prevent our best players from veing poached by RU. Adding teams in Perth and Adelaide will be costly and will lower the price of our broadcast deal, driving down the salary cap.

RU poaching isn’t that big a concern, they’ve sent themselves broke attempting it and we just get revenge by picking off their best juniors. Adding teams won’t lower a broadcast deal, a ninth or tenth game is an extra product to sell, it can only add value.

 

[Perth Red]

Vlandys will be gone in a couple of years. Hopefully the next chair is more strategic and visionary. We’ve been waiting 20 years to get the game back to having a national plan, a few more years just puts the game further behind afl, but Hopefully one day we’ll wake up.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

They do have a lot of say, that’s why it’s a shame V’landys is against WA/SA expansion, he’s the closest thing to a benevolent dictator the game has had for a long time. He has the ability to strong arm people into taking the position he wants, just like Demetriou did when he headed up the AFL. All of Demetriou’s decisions to expand again into NSW and QLD weren’t universally popular in the AFL and the clubs had the ability to veto his commission’s decisions, but he’d just go mob boss on the people/clubs threatening not to support his vision and made it work.

The one thing in Demetriou's favour is he didn't have to worry about News Ltd and Ch7 using their empires to turn public sentiment and the clubs against him. When News Ltd and Ch9 wanted to strong arm the ARLC into following their interests they led a campaign that led to the resignation of Dave Smith and Todd Greenberg. It's as if News Ltd's parting gift to the game in 2012 was to create an ARLC that gives the impression of independence, but is still controlled by the broadcasters.

Didn't PVL refer to the broadcasters' interests when acknowledging expansion?

I think Beattie did.

My guess is PVL knows his position and that of the game is at the mercy of News Ltd and Ch9, so being a shrewd businessman and politician, he's buttering them up so he can get what he can.

News Ltd were quick to boot Adelaide and Perth after they took 50% ownership of the game. They've never indicated they want teams in these areas, but have shown interest in Brisbane 2, I am guessing because it will help them sell papers in Brisbane and possibly generate more Foxtel subscriptions.

It doesn’t have to, Demetriou was able to sell the long term benefits of NSW/QLD expansions to the AFL bodies and clubs by presenting a long term plan where the overall AFL pie would grow, meaning more chances of growth, sponsors etc which would in turn benefit their club.

A similar thing can be done with the RL clubs and interstate expansion.

The benefit for the fumblers was gaining a slice of the 1st and 3rd largest metro areas in the country, in 2 states that make up more than 50% of the population. It was much easier for Demetriou to get the club's to see the benefits of getting those markets in the game than it will be for the ARLC to convince 16 clubs and 2 state bodies that it's in their best interests to put teams in two states that have a combined population that's less than regional Queensland and regional NSW. Perth and Adelaede are 4th and 5th largest and population projections, based on recent trends, put Brisbane growing at a faster rate than Perth. The ABS 2066 projection shows Brisbane even further in front of Perth by then.

That will change in the next 20-30 years, the idea of spending big money on RU sponsorship will be a joke, as the code will be on its death bed here. We need to get ahead of that and get our share of those corporate dollars and not let them all go to the AFL. The AFL is already well ahead of RL there, they can’t be allowed to gain any more ground.

RU poaching isn’t that big a concern, they’ve sent themselves broke attempting it and we just get revenge by picking off their best juniors. Adding teams won’t lower a broadcast deal, a ninth or tenth game is an extra product to sell, it can only add value.

I am not worried about the ARU. It's Japanese and French RU clubs that could strike if our salary cap goes down. I cannot see Ch9 or Foxtel paying much more for a ninth game unless it improves their bottom line. Brisbane 2 is best placed to do this, as Gyngell pointed out about Ch9 getting a 100 cents return on the dollar when Broncos play and just 40 cents everywhere else. Perth and Adelaide are not in a position to provide this for Ch9.

The yearly club grant and salary cap payment for each club is about $23 million, so the new deal must add $46 million a year to keep payments the same if we want 18 clubs. I can see why PVL has ruled out an 18th team. There's no way that sort of money will come into the game from Ch9/Foxtel for an 18th team. We will be lucky to get a 17th team.

The current clubs won't accept a reduction.

 

[reanimate]

The one thing in Demetriou's favour is he didn't have to worry about News Ltd and Ch7 using their empires to turn public sentiment and the clubs against him. When News Ltd and Ch9 wanted to strong arm the ARLC into following their interests they led a campaign that led to the resignation of Dave Smith and Todd Greenberg. It's as if News Ltd's parting gift to the game in 2012 was to create an ARLC that gives the impression of independence, but is still controlled by the broadcasters.

Vlad's had various negative articles published about him and his desires to push the game further into NSW and QLD, there's been whinging from clubs like St Kilda and the other smaller AFL clubs saying he doesn't understand the problems they were facing and that they needed extra help before considering expansion and so on.

The job of the ARLC is to stand strong in the face of that sort of negative publicity and deliver what's best for the game, not kowtow to the first sign of resistance.

Didn't PVL refer to the broadcasters' interests when acknowledging expansion?

I think Beattie did.

My guess is PVL knows his position and that of the game is at the mercy of News Ltd and Ch9, so being a shrewd businessman and politician, he's buttering them up so he can get what he can.

News Ltd were quick to boot Adelaide and Perth after they took 50% ownership of the game. They've never indicated they want teams in these areas, but have shown interest in Brisbane 2, I am guessing because it will help them sell papers in Brisbane and possibly generate more Foxtel subscriptions.

They want Brisbane 2 as it's their best chance at a short term shot in the arm. They don't care about the long term growth of the game, they want the closest thing to immediate results that they can get, that's why Bris 2 is the only expansion option they're publicly interested in.

Sugar hit expansion options like more Brisbane clubs should be tied to long term growth options, like Perth. I.e. if Bris 2 is brought in, the next team to come in is Perth, that way you get one team with nearly guaranteed demand and a long term growth project that will pay dividends in 30-40 years time. Both are important, I'm definitely not denying that there should be more Brisbane teams, but the NRL needs to be looking beyond that for further options and to strengthen their position when seeking sponsorships and further demand for the sport.

The benefit for the fumblers was gaining a slice of the 1st and 3rd largest metro areas in the country, in 2 states that make up more than 50% of the population. It was much easier for Demetriou to get the club's to see the benefits of getting those markets in the game than it will be for the ARLC to convince 16 clubs and 2 state bodies that it's in their best interests to put teams in two states that have a combined population that's less than regional Queensland and regional NSW. Perth and Adelaede are 4th and 5th largest and population projections, based on recent trends, put Brisbane growing at a faster rate than Perth. The ABS 2066 projection shows Brisbane even further in front of Perth by then.

Once we've squeezed Brisbane, we need access to the 4th and 5th largest population centres. The work needs to start on them now, as they'll need time to deliver results. That, plus the benefits of being able to generate more sponsorships and profile due to being a national plus international game need to be sold to the clubs.

I am not worried about the ARU. It's Japanese and French RU clubs that could strike if our salary cap goes down. I cannot see Ch9 or Foxtel paying much more for a ninth game unless it improves their bottom line. Brisbane 2 is best placed to do this, as Gyngell pointed out about Ch9 getting a 100 cents return on the dollar when Broncos play and just 40 cents everywhere else. Perth and Adelaide are not in a position to provide this for Ch9.

They do that anyway, it's not something to worry about. The salary cap going up by 5-10% isn't going to stop players going to European Union, nor is a 5-10% drop going to exponentially increase the number of players going to European Rugby. Besides, we can easily replace RU defectors by buying cheap RU talent from around the world. It's really not the number one problem for the NRL.

 

[Perth Red]

The way I see it the only people to benefit from Brisbane2 Is fta tv and they don’t want to pay anything for it. Brisbane 2 has every potential to weaken the other 3 qnlsd clubs and melbourne without bringing any new fans to the game who aren’t already following it. All that risk just so Ch9 can get 50k extra viewers a week?

 

[reanimate]

The way I see it the only people to benefit from Brisbane2 Is fta tv and they don’t want to pay anything for it. Brisbane 2 has every potential to weaken the other 3 qnlsd clubs and melbourne without bringing any new fans to the game who aren’t already following it. All that risk just so Ch9 can get 50k extra viewers a week?

I think Brisbane 2 for a Brisbane derby and a weekly Suncorp game makes perfect sense. The AFL states all have a minimum of 2 clubs to play out of their best stadiums, we should too.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

I think Brisbane 2 for a Brisbane derby and a weekly Suncorp game makes perfect sense. The AFL states all have a minimum of 2 clubs to play out of their best stadiums, we should too.

My preferred plan, which I've ammended after taking into consideration the fine points made on here, would be Bris 2 in 2023, NZ 2 within 5-10 years, so 28-33, Bris 3 in 2033-38, depending on when NZ 2 is introduced and how successful Bris 2 is, then NZ 3 within 10-15 years of NZ 2.

I think Queensland and NZ have earned the right to have teams of their own. In the past I thought the Bulldogs could become a Sydney-Christchurch team, but NZ deserves a full time team, not a shared one. Over time this would increase the value of the NZ TV rights and grow the game in NZ. I've explained the benefits of 3 Brisbane teams on ratings, attendance boost from more derbies and media saturation in SE Queensland rubbing out the other sports, so I won't go into it again.

For Perth I would encourage the NRL and Tigers to work with the WA Government and businesses from Perth to see if they can come to an arrangement that benefits both parties. WA Government want content at Perth Oval, Tony Sage and Peter Cumins want a team in Perth and Wests would want as much capital they can get. If Wests and Sage/Cumins/WA Government worked together with the NRL them maybe they could give Sage and Cumins a 50% stake in the club, maybe rename it Western Magpies or Western Australia Magpies to keep the Wests side of the merger happy, and guarantee a l yearly Magic Round at Perth Stadium if the WA Government chips in a few million a year towards the club. Wests would go from being a club that struggles to make the eight to being one of the glamour clubs. Advertisers would want to associate with them as their brand would be shared amongst 2 major markets. Everyone wins. 6 games in Perth, and 6 in Sydney if they use the name Western Magpies. Full time relocation to Perth if they go with Western Australia.

 

[The Great Dane]

I think Brisbane 2 for a Brisbane derby and a weekly Suncorp game makes perfect sense. The AFL states all have a minimum of 2 clubs to play out of their best stadiums, we should too.

A second Brisbane team makes perfect sense, but only if you've got the right club to pull it off.

I'm not sure if we have that club though...

 

[The Great Dane]

For Perth I would encourage the NRL and Tigers to work with the WA Government and businesses from Perth to see if they can come to an arrangement that benefits both parties. WA Government want content at Perth Oval, Tony Sage and Peter Cumins want a team in Perth and Wests would want as much capital they can get. If Wests and Sage/Cumins/WA Government worked together with the NRL them maybe they could give Sage and Cumins a 50% stake in the club, maybe rename it Western Magpies or Western Australia Magpies to keep the Wests side of the merger happy, and guarantee a l yearly Magic Round at Perth Stadium if the WA Government chips in a few million a year towards the club. Wests would go from being a club that struggles to make the eight to being one of the glamour clubs. Advertisers would want to associate with them as their brand would be shared amongst 2 major markets. Everyone wins. 6 games in Perth, and 6 in Sydney if they use the name Western Magpies. Full time relocation to Perth if they go with Western Australia.

Actually nobody would win because not one of them would come close to getting what they want, or frankly any benefit at all, out of that kind of arrangement.

Why would Sage and Cummins work together anyway?
They both support two separate bids that are almost fundamentally opposed to each other in their goals, and on top of that having a team that isn't based in Perth full time would totally defeat the purpose of both bids.

I mean why does Sage need to be part of the picture at all when the West Coast Pirates probably have the best backing of any bid as it is.
Alongside Cummins and Cash Converters they've got the other guy that used to back the Reds (whose name I'm forgetting now) willing to put his backing behind a WARL backed bid, Wesfarmers has supposedly shown some interest in supporting the club as well, and they claimed to have other sponsors lined up to support the club as well.

I'm pretty sure that Sage was looking to offload the Glory as well, so do we know if Sage and Elias are even interested in an NRL license anymore?

 

[greenBV4]

Wesfarmers has supposedly shown some interest in supporting the club as well, and they claimed to have other sponsors lined up to support the club as well.

I hadn't hear this befire, thats a pretty huge backer if true. And cash converters have stuck with WA RL through thick in thin, I think you could quite safely rely on their support for the foreseeable future of a Perth team

 

[The Great Dane]

I hadn't hear this befire, thats a pretty huge backer if true. And cash converters have stuck with WA RL through thick in thin, I think you could quite safely rely on their support for the foreseeable future of a Perth team

I should be clear that Wesfarmer's name (and by extension Bunnings) has come up before, but we don't actually know how they are involved and how serious their involvement is.

It could be huge or it could end up amounting to nothing.

 

[reanimate]

A second Brisbane team makes perfect sense, but only if you've got the right club to pull it off.

I'm not sure if we have that club though...

Are you referring to the various bids that have put their hands up? I agree that there’s something not quite right about them all.

 

[The Great Dane]

Are you referring to the various bids that have put their hands up? I agree that there’s something not quite right about them all.

All of the Brisbane bids are flawed in some way. The Firehawks are easily the best of the lot, but even then if I was the NRL I'd want a lot of assurances before I gave them a license.

The NRL can't afford to f**k up expansion in Brisbane again, so I'm just really hoping that there is a better bid just biding their time waiting for the NRL to formally announce the bidding process.
There probably is a better bid that hasn't gone public yet as well, that's generally been the way things have gone in the past.

 

[Perth Red]

If I had more faith in the abilities of NRL HQ and our leaders Id suggest it might not be a bad idea to do what Aleague did with Wanderers and set up expansion clubs themselves. Run them for a few years to bed them in risk free and then offload them to suitable ownership groups.

 

[The Great Dane]

If I had more faith in the abilities of NRL HQ and our leaders Id suggest it might not be a bad idea to do what Aleague did with Wanderers and set up expansion clubs themselves. Run them for a few years to bed them in risk free and then offload them to suitable ownership groups.

Even without any faith in the NRL I still think that'd be a good way to go.

On top of having total control of how the team is created they'd be more able to, let's say manipulate, the players market in the team's favour as well, which wouldn't be a bad thing considering that if the team is strong on the pitch from the get go it'll be more likely to succeed, and they really need a second Brisbane team to be successful.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

The way I see it the only people to benefit from Brisbane2 Is fta tv and they don’t want to pay anything for it. Brisbane 2 has every potential to weaken the other 3 qnlsd clubs and melbourne without bringing any new fans to the game who aren’t already following it. All that risk just so Ch9 can get 50k extra viewers a week?

I agree with your thinking on most issues PR but this is very short-term thinking and it surprises me that it comes from you. Brisbane 2 will grab at least 20k fans pretty much straight away attending games and will boost TV ratings like you say.

But it is the long-term cementing of SEQ as a RL stronghold that is the real benefit. The next generation of Brisbane kids will grow up either being a Broncos or a Bomber/Dolphin/FireHawk/InsertNameHere and as a result, over time a big RL market will become even bigger. It will put the QLD Reds to the sword and will put a heap of pressure on the Lions (the Lions only draw attention when at the very pointy end of the ladder and that isn't going to happen every season).

You would have seen the impact that having two AFL teams in Perth has had. It hasn't dilluted the game at all, in fact it seems from other sports' percpective that the AFL have sewn Perth up as a stronghold forever because of it with the other codes left to battle for second place.

 

[Perth Red]

I agree with your thinking on most issues PR but this is very short-term thinking and it surprises me that it comes from you. Brisbane 2 will grab at least 20k fans pretty much straight away attending games and will boost TV ratings like you say.

But it is the long-term cementing of SEQ as a RL stronghold that is the real benefit. The next generation of Brisbane kids will grow up either being a Broncos or a Bomber/Dolphin/FireHawk/InsertNameHere and as a result, over time a big RL market will become even bigger. It will put the QLD Reds to the sword and will put a heap of pressure on the Lions (the Lions only draw attention when at the very pointy end of the ladder and that isn't going to happen every season).

You would have seen the impact that having two AFL teams in Perth has had. It hasn't dilluted the game at all, in fact it seems from other sports' percpective that the AFL have sewn Perth up as a stronghold forever because of it with the other codes left to battle for second place.

I'm not against Brisbane2 (Ive always said its nuts historically the games second biggest city only has one club) but the overwhelming support for it, particularly at the expense of genuine expansion of the game, has to be tempered by some of the realities. We are going to spend $13mill plus a year of the games money on it with no signs TV are going to cover it. You'd want to see some big gains for the sport other than a local derby twice a year.
1. Kids are already growing up playing RL in Brisbane, I dont see another club doing much in that regards UNLESS it creates a massive rivalry that further grows the hype and interest around the game. To do that the new club is going to need massive fiancial backing to market itself and to build a strong on the field team.
2. Sydney hasnt put the Warritahs or Swans to the sword with nine clubs so I dont see adding another will impact much on AFL or Union in Brisbane. They attract different fans and sponsors generally.
3. Yes it has worked well in Perth, largely because the second club was set up well as a point of difference from the Eagles, but I also concede that the fact that you simply could not actually go to an eagles game as every seat was sold 7-8 years in advance also plays a big part in people following the Dockers. For the first decade dockers were seen as a bit of a joke and had plenty of financial stress. The first 7 years they had some of the smallest crowd avg's in the AFL.
4. Having introduced GC and with Storm reliant (though less so at moment) on Qland talent it would be fool hardy to think another Qland club isnt going to eat into those clubs recruitment options
5. GC are still in a precarious infancy. We'd want to be very sure that adding another Brisbane club isnt goign to tip them over again into insolvency. It probably wont but geez we'd want to be sure.
6. The $ value of expansion is in extra content, adding Brisbane2 on their own is going to cost the NRL money, not make it. Id rather we waited until we were ready to bring in a ninth game than add one team at great expense, especially now given the games financial problems.

 

[The Great Dane]

I agree with your thinking on most issues PR but this is very short-term thinking and it surprises me that it comes from you. Brisbane 2 will grab at least 20k fans pretty much straight away attending games and will boost TV ratings like you say.

But it is the long-term cementing of SEQ as a RL stronghold that is the real benefit. The next generation of Brisbane kids will grow up either being a Broncos or a Bomber/Dolphin/FireHawk/InsertNameHere and as a result, over time a big RL market will become even bigger. It will put the QLD Reds to the sword and will put a heap of pressure on the Lions (the Lions only draw attention when at the very pointy end of the ladder and that isn't going to happen every season).

You would have seen the impact that having two AFL teams in Perth has had. It hasn't dilluted the game at all, in fact it seems from other sports' percpective that the AFL have sewn Perth up as a stronghold forever because of it with the other codes left to battle for second place.

For every argument you've made there an almost identical one was made about the Titans. . .

If done right a second Brisbane club is a great idea, but one wrong move and it'll end up an expensive long term investment similar to the Titans when, like the Titans, it should have been an overnight success, and the NRL can't afford that right now.

 

[Perth Red]

For every argument you've made there an almost identical one was made about the Titans. . .

If done right a second Brisbane club is a great idea, but one wrong move and it'll end up an expensive long term investment similar to the Titans when, like the Titans, it should have been an overnight success, and the NRL can't afford that right now.

I think that is the point. It is very RARE for any expansion club, heartland or new frontier, to be an overnight success. Its part of the games problem. It hasnt set up its systems, or set aside the money, that is needed to invest in a new club over the first 5 plus years to make sure it is successful long term. We bring them in and leave them to flounder. I mean look at the games history in this:

Perth - set up to fail with travel costs
NZ - survived first decade by skin of teeth at times
Cowboys - only survived when News Ltd bought in and propped them up
Storm - required extra funding to keep them afloat, begrudgingly given to get News ltd out of the club
Titans - left to flounder and had to be taken over by NRL to keep them afloat

Our track record of supporting new clubs isnt great!

 

[The Great Dane]

2. Sydney has put the Warritahs or Swans to the sword with nine clubs so I dont see adding another will impact much on AFL or Union in Brisbane. They attract different fans and sponsors generally.

Yeah I've never understood this idea that people hold that if you just flood the market with variations of your product that somehow that will kill another product, and besides that we know it doesn't work because people have tried (look up the Cola wars for a fun example).

The AFL and RU have their market and their fans and you're not going to change that no matter what you do.