Rationalisation of Sydney

[Stallion]

What I've learnt over sucking oxygen in Sydney all my life's at times journalists tend to at times not report verbatim,but either edit or make something more dramatic than it is.Remember agendas and teh media go hand in hand.

From what I have been reading and listening to Greenberg over the years.Again with caution.
He wants to spread the game as does Beattie.,that has been AFAIK an ongoing thing.

As to the matter of chopping or not chopping Sydney clubs, that has been a thorny issue for a long time.Especially when clubs like the Sharks had financial issues, as did clubs like the Dragons and even the Tigers part of West Tigers.And when Manly were struggling to get above 10,000.

I have no doubt either one or two influential powerful Sydney clubs (no names) were lobbying to reduce the number of Sydney clubs ,as they would not be involved and would benefit long term.

It doesn't take a genius to know, the AFL has pushed into Western Sydney, and no doubt the A League will want a 4th Sydney club, that any NRL club moved or flicked will create a vacuum for
other codes to benefit.Fans of the flicked clubs ,will not follow other Sydney clubs period.It happened when Souths went, ditto Norths.

It doesn't take a genius to know the effect the SL war had with fans ATT,and no doubt the Reds getting flicked also.
Greenberg et al who is supposedly doing some project of where the code is now, where it should be for the Commission ,and anyone doing such research ,would have noted the impact of club removal and the after effects. More so when you now have a cashed up competitor and a lesser one lurking around.

Sydney I repeat nauseously is the commercial heart of Australia ,it's population is expected to increase by 1.3m in the next 10 years.That's like adding another Adelaide or half a Brisbane ,or 2 Tasmanias or half a Perth.
And one wants to cut back on teams in the city ,where still rugby league is the no 1 winter-code,in the end to the benefit of your major competitors.
Even the AFL despite their complete dominance in Melbourne ,would be unprepared to remove a club, unless that club was in dire straights.Yet they can still expand ,and so should we.

Added further to this scenario is the rugby league can easily win back the lost fans and consolidate the northern Sydney region with a relatively easy to do Central Coast Bears! Add another Brisbane club and there is an 18 team comp with infrastructure and juniors pathways at the ready. Then more ambitious expansion with West Coast Pirates and perhaps NZ Wellington Orcas or Adelaide Dingoes. A twenty team comp with perhaps conferences involved? At least this scenario involves no whiteanting and pain for existing fans and welcomes new fans to the competition. That's genuine growth!

 

[LeagueXIII]

Population doesn't necessarily equal demand for a product.

Adelaide will tell you that....they aren't screaming out for a RL club.

 

[Perth Red]

Adelaide will tell you that....they aren't screaming out for a RL club.

Neither was Perth in the early 2000's, took a lot of hard work, investment and clubs willing to bring games here to reignite the interest in the game and create the demand. Unless we get started on Adelaide it never will be crying out for a club, origin is the best kick start we can have there but it needs significant investment in the SANRL and 2-3 NRL games a year and some Govt lobby to start planning for Hindmarsh stadium upgrade. Get to work now and in 7-10 years it will be fertile for planting a new club in.

If the Bears were going to partner with anywhere Adelaide would be the spot as they are the ones with the least infrastructure for RL and having the Bears on board would be a fast track in many ways.

 

[TheFrog]

Unless we get started on Adelaide it never will be crying out for a club

Adelaide is a quarter the size of Melbourne, and just as much hostile territory. So expect a quarter of the Storm's crowds once it settles down. An Adelaide NRL club is a recipe for flushing money down the toilet, a la GWS but they have the money to throw away and we don't. Perth must be no better than borderline viable as well, but it does have a lot more Eastern states expats.

 

[Perth Red]

Adelaide is a quarter the size of Melbourne, and just as much hostile territory. So expect a quarter of the Storm's crowds once it settles down. An Adelaide NRL club is a recipe for flushing money down the toilet, a la GWS but they have the money to throw away and we don't. Perth must be no better than borderline viable as well, but it does have a lot more Eastern states expats.

Thats a very simplistic analysis and on the rare occasions the Adelaide public have had the opportunity to attend a game crowds have been pretty reasonable. Like I said NRL has no god given right to fans, it has to work for them. There is no reason there arent 15-20k people in a city of 1.3million who who would actively support a club, if we are willing to put the work in. Given most heartland clubs have sub 15k crowds the bar really isnt set very high!

 

[TheFrog]

the rare occasions the Adelaide public have had the opportunity to attend a game crowds have been pretty reasonable.

A game or two a year is quite different to 12 games a year. It's not my money being wasted but anyone can see the numbers don't stack up.

Given most heartland clubs have sub 15k crowds the bar really isnt set very high!

The heartland clubs have fans who watch on TV and rarely attend games. This is what kept Melbourne afloat early on. If Adelaide could get 15k it would be close to viable, but what makes you think crowds as a percentage of population would be higher than Melbourne gets?

 

[Perth Red]

A game or two a year is quite different to 12 games a year. It's not my money being wasted but anyone can see the numbers don't stack up.

ah that old argument, yes it is but it is the only metric we have, anything else us total supposition.

When you say the numbers dont stack up, what numbers are you referring to?

 

[adamkungl]

Thats a very simplistic analysis and on the rare occasions the Adelaide public have had the opportunity to attend a game crowds have been pretty reasonable. Like I said NRL has no god given right to fans, it has to work for them. There is no reason there arent 15-20k people in a city of 1.3million who who would actively support a club, if we are willing to put the work in. Given most heartland clubs have sub 15k crowds the bar really isnt set very high!

Exactly. The "AFL city" rhetoric is 1970s thinking that other sports (literally every one of them) abandoned long ago.
The modern sports fan follows multiple sports from Australia, USA, England, and internationally. If there's no local team, teenagers will follow #1 AFL and #2 will be EPL, NBA, NFL.
NRL can't match them for marketing or international fan service or cultural relevance, unless we are in the city.

The AFL know they aren't going to "win" Sydney or Brisbane, not in our lifetimes, but they know they have to have skin in the game.
Having a strong presence in every major city is far more important for the future of the sport than having a strong presence where your juniors came from in the past.
We'll never win over Perth, Adelaide or Melbourne but we need to have NRL clubs based in those cities to ensure the sport has national significance in the coming decades.

 

[Perth Red]

To be fair, the second comment doesn't necessarily contradict the first entirely. Greenberg said in the second one that "The thought of losing a Sydney team hasn't been entertained" and that "There is zero appetite to kick any teams out of our competition". This doesn't necessarily mean that a club won't relocate. It just means the NRL won't force anyone to do it. It still means that if a team were in financial hardship they could pose that the team relocates if they want financial assistance from the NRL. This way the NRL saves face and gets what they want. It just means the NRL is happy to wait the clubs out until someone does need a hand out.

True but "lets wait and see what might happen" is not a very successful proactive strategy for growth as a rule! No sydney club has fallen over and in reality not really looked like doing so. With the massive grant increase they have and the football cap coming in its hard to see any of them will anytime soon. So we sit and wait 20 years in the hope one does?

 

[adamkungl]

True but "lets wait and see what might happen" is not a very successful proactive strategy for growth as a rule! No sydney club has fallen over and in reality not really looked like doing so. With the massive grant increase they have and the football cap coming in its hard to see any of them will anytime soon. So we sit and wait 20 years in the hope one does?

Lets assume the 130% grant stays.
I still think the environment in the next few years will be driving a bigger gap between the financially highest performing and lowest performing clubs. The stadiums, the big city backing, the declining leagues club investment, the modern expectations of the new generation of fans.
City clubs and the NRL will profit from this environment.

There will come a time soon when the NRL needs to decide whether to use its surplus profits to invest in expansion locations, or sink it back into suburban parks and an even bigger club grant to keep certain clubs functioning day to day.
We all know the correct answer but I'm worried V'landys will pander to the lowest common denominator.

 

[Perth Red]

Lets assume the 130% grant stays.
I still think the environment in the next few years will be driving a bigger gap between the financially highest performing and lowest performing clubs. The stadiums, the big city backing, the declining leagues club investment, the modern expectations of the new generation of fans.
City clubs and the NRL will profit from this environment.

There will come a time soon when the NRL needs to decide whether to use its surplus profits to invest in expansion locations, or sink it back into suburban parks and an even bigger club grant to keep certain clubs functioning day to day.
We all know the correct answer but I'm worried V'landys will pander to the lowest common denominator.

That's why Id expand but keep the extra content exclusive for NRL production on its digital channel, that way if and when some clubs fall over the NRL doesn't feel it has to bail them out to keep the TV contract in tact.

 

[flippikat]

Perth must be no better than borderline viable as well, but it does have a lot more Eastern states expats.

Perth also has a timezone in it's favour.

If the NRL wants games kicking off at 9.30pm Eastern time on Saturday or Friday, then a Perth club is a must.

There's possibly some TV rights money in that enhancement to the competition - even if it's a timeslot that's only available every few weeks.

 

[Stallion]

Lets assume the 130% grant stays.
I still think the environment in the next few years will be driving a bigger gap between the financially highest performing and lowest performing clubs. The stadiums, the big city backing, the declining leagues club investment, the modern expectations of the new generation of fans.
City clubs and the NRL will profit from this environment.

There will come a time soon when the NRL needs to decide whether to use its surplus profits to invest in expansion locations, or sink it back into suburban parks and an even bigger club grant to keep certain clubs functioning day to day.
We all know the correct answer but I'm worried V'landys will pander to the lowest common denominator.

Suggest they can do both: Consolidation and genuine expansion. It doesn't have to be one or the other.

 

[LeagueXIII]

Neither was Perth in the early 2000's, took a lot of hard work, investment and clubs willing to bring games here to reignite the interest in the game and create the demand. Unless we get started on Adelaide it never will be crying out for a club, origin is the best kick start we can have there but it needs significant investment in the SANRL and 2-3 NRL games a year and some Govt lobby to start planning for Hindmarsh stadium upgrade. Get to work now and in 7-10 years it will be fertile for planting a new club in.

If the Bears were going to partner with anywhere Adelaide would be the spot as they are the ones with the least infrastructure for RL and having the Bears on board would be a fast track in many ways.

Perth at the time had a very vibrant rugby league community and plenty of expats. I recall their local grand final being on Perth TV, Belmont Steelers were one of the clubs. The game attracted 10,000 odd.
Also this was done all before the AFL put in Freo and Port Adelaide.

WA was also considered the third league state a fair way behind second though.

Adelaide has a population that isn't growing, it's corporate dollar today is taken by the two AFL teamsand they still have a very strong local Aussie Rules competition. In terms of rugby league in Adelaide there is very little.

By all means put a NSW Cup team in, and see where that goes to build the game and play the odd test and origin.

 

[LeagueXIII]

If the NRL damage Sydney clubs, and ratings fall in Sydney we can kiss goodbye big TV deals from the stations. Sydney's ratings bring the big dollars.

 

[Stallion]

If the NRL damage Sydney clubs, and ratings fall in Sydney we can kiss goodbye big TV deals from the stations. Sydney's ratings bring the big dollars.

Ofcourse! The game can still grow . Implosion does not do the code any favours!

 

[MrE_Assassin]

True but "lets wait and see what might happen" is not a very successful proactive strategy for growth as a rule! No sydney club has fallen over and in reality not really looked like doing so. With the massive grant increase they have and the football cap coming in its hard to see any of them will anytime soon. So we sit and wait 20 years in the hope one does?

Oh, I agree with you completely on that. I never said it was a smart plan and it's definitely not what I would be doing if it were me in the job.... However, to date the NRL hasn't had the brightest ideas.... All I'm saying is that they could be using that wording for them to maintain the status quo.... which is no new teams, no relocation and no axing of old teams.... I suppose I'm trying to read between the lines of what Todd is saying.

 

[Perth Red]

If the NRL damage Sydney clubs, and ratings fall in Sydney we can kiss goodbye big TV deals from the stations. Sydney's ratings bring the big dollars.

Sydneys ratings didn't fall last time a club was cut and others were merged.
Sydneys ratings arent that great anyway tbh for the size of the city, our TV audience totals are very much reliant more on regionals in comparison to our competitors.

 

[tri_colours]

Sydneys ratings didn't fall last time a club was cut and others were merged.
Sydneys ratings arent that great anyway tbh for the size of the city, our TV audience totals are very much reliant more on regionals in comparison to our competitors.

How do you know"? Accurate ratings are a relatively new thing.

Sydney ratings may not be that good per capita, but there way better than anything else we have going for us.

And every Sydney Team we Cut means less advertising opportunities for the network, less money for the NRL and less chance of expansion .

Regional ratings are worth a lot less.

 

[Perth Red]

How do you know"? Accurate ratings are a relatively new thing.

Sydney ratings may not be that good per capita, but there way better than anything else we have going for us.

And every Sydney Team we Cut means less advertising opportunities for the network, less money for the NRL and less chance of expansion .

Regional ratings are worth a lot less.

Proper TV ratings started in 1991 with Neilsen with the introduction of people meters.

The reverse thinking of that is that a truly national competition is more attractive to advertisers and sponsors, hence why AFL does better in its corporate deals and media deals than our Sydney focused sport.

Most Sydney tv audiences are in the 300-400k range, how many of those do you think we would lose if a team or two goes? Then how many more people in Brisbane might tune in (given they are already per person bigger viewer market) plus how many new viewers in Perth if the game was ever given the respect it was due by the FTA partner?

Of course its all hypothetical as there really is no data to back up either argument.