Round 21 v Dragons

[WestyLife]

Dropping off tacke is not an issue with Tago. He has a higher tackle efficiency than Critta and that is with having made over 100 more tackles this season. He is well above Nathan and Turuva aslo in efficiency also, but that is probably Tago's fault somehow.

No Nathan is a strong defender but has had a few bad games with it this year. I said earlier I put it down to inconsistent game time. The Dolphins game I also said Nathan was more at fault than tago as he took the decoy more often then couldn't cover hammers speed.

 

[betcats]

Well he does race out of the line at the wrong times if you are after a serious factual discussion

Sure his positioning and decision making have been an issue at times.

As far as jamming, all of our outside backs do that at times. The fact Tago is still doing it makes me think he is being told to do it and sometimes just picking the wrong time or just a step slow when he does get times. Other times ive noticed Turuva just stays out when he jams which is his error not tago. If the centre goes the winger has to also and Turuva consistently doesnt.

 

[betcats]

No Nathan is a strong defender but has had a few bad games with it this year. I said earlier I put it down to inconsistent game time. The Dolphins game I also said Nathan was more at fault than tago as he took the decoy more often then couldn't cover hammers speed.

Nath is a great defender im not saying otherwise. Critta is the best defensive centre in the game. Im just pointing out in response realist suggesting Tago is up there in missed tackle that he isnt. He is actually quite good in that area.

 

[WestyLife]

Nath is a great defender im not saying otherwise. Critta is the best defensive centre in the game. Im just pointing out in response realist suggesting Tago is up there in missed tackle that he isnt. He is actually quite good in that area.

I'm just in my way trying to say you're right and that I don't argue for the sake of it. I do think he's having confidence/form issues since his pec injury.

 

[Chins get the wins]

Nathan's defence has been slipping for a few years now

 

[betcats]

Nathan's defence has been slipping for a few years now

Besides the GF i thought he was pretty good last year. This year hard to judge as he has barely played.

 

[Chins get the wins]

Besides the GF i thought he was pretty good last year. This year hard to judge as he has barely played.

Yeah he's been in and out but he used to belt merkins in his first few years

 

[Pomoz]

Without wanting to take any more time out of my work day on the Panthers Forum - I am pretty sure Tago is up there in terms of missed tackles and penalties conceded.

It would be interesting if there was a category for defensive stats that opposed, offensive stats like Line breaks, line break assist, try involvements etc,

So for example;

Line breaks conceded
Line Break conceded involvement

Likewise for trys themselves.

In the past there have been players who had relatively low missed tackle counts, but they simply let tries in by either not being in position to make, or simply not attempting to tackle (early to mid career Luke 'Dinner suit' Walsh comes to mind).

I have read somewhere that the Bulldogs have a very high missed tackle count - apparently the worst in the NRL but are the 2nd best defensive team. Panthers also don't have impressive numbers when it comes to missed tackles but we are the best defensive team in the comp.

So obviously MT is not a very reliable predictor of a defenses overall success.

What we and the Bulldogs seem to limit are the 'try conceded involvements'. If such a metric existed, it would be very interesting as to the spread amongst our players. It would definately put the Tago and left defensive edge debate to bed.

You need to read my post. I listed line breaks conceded and try causes. Here it is again:
The players with the most try causes at the Panthers are as follows:

Turuva - 15 in 15 games
Tago - 13 in 16 games
Edwards - 12 in 13 games
Alamoti - 10 in 11 games
Cleary - 6 in 6 games

Line break causes:

Turuva - 18 in 15 games
Alamoti 13 in 11 games
To'o 11 in 14 games
Luai 8 in 14 games
Tago - 8 in 14 games
Cleary 7 in 6 games

Tackles can only be measured by effective tackle % since players make different amounts of tackles based on their position, so missed tackles is not indicative across the whole team. The bottom five players are:

Turuva - 62
Edwards - 70
Alamoti - 75
Peachey - 77
To'o - 77

Tago's tackle percentage is 82%. He has made the most tackles of any of our backs and the most 1 on 1 tackles.

As the data shows, Tago is not the worst player in the team for tries and line breaks. He is the best of our regular backs in defence. Schnieder and Cole are better though, with 83 and 88% respectively.

The areas where Tago does stand out though is with errors (1.43 per game) and penalties (0.75 per game). Incidentally, Luai is second in this area.

Tago needs to improve his error and penalty rates. The rest of the backs need to improve their tackling so they are as good as Tago. Several of them, including Cleary and Edwards need to improve their positioning so they cause less line breaks and tries.

 

[Fangs]

I'd encourage everyone to dive into the Fox Sports Lab if you haven't already. You might notice some differences with the stats on the NRL website but they are minimal. The lab is also more comprehensive than what is on NRL.com.

Some golden rules for those who haven't heard them before:

1.) Stats are volatile when dealing with low volume (Its round 21 so shouldn't be a huge problem)
2.) Stats are important but don't replace the eye test (And vice versa)

When used appropriately it can generate a lot of great discussion. You might need to do some pruning as this data set isn't so reliable when filtering by position (For example Tom T is listed as a centre despite playing only one game there this season):

NRL Premiership Players Statistics | FOX SPORTS Lab

Players Statistics Table for NRL Premiership

www.foxsports.com.au

Its not perfect but its the best I've found available to fans. I'd love to see what data the Penrith Panthers collect in-house (The guy in the coaches box with the laptop would be my guess).

 

[betcats]

I'd encourage everyone to dive into the Fox Sports Lab if you haven't already. You might notice some differences with the stats on the NRL website but they are minimal. The lab is also more comprehensive than what is on NRL.com.

Some golden rules for those who haven't heard them before:

1.) Stats are volatile when dealing with low volume (Its round 21 so shouldn't be a huge problem)
2.) Stats are important but don't replace the eye test (And vice versa)

When used appropriately it can generate a lot of great discussion. You might need to do some pruning as this data set isn't so reliable when filtering by position (For example Tom T is listed as a centre despite playing only one game there this season):

NRL Premiership Players Statistics | FOX SPORTS Lab

Players Statistics Table for NRL Premiership

www.foxsports.com.au

Its not perfect but its the best I've found available to fans. I'd love to see what data the Penrith Panthers collect in-house (The guy in the coaches box with the laptop would be my guess).

The difference in NRL and FOX stats can be fairly significant sometimes, even for basic things like metres gained. I notice it in the reporting. Say Dylan has a big game 9(using NRL stats) will say he ran for 280m and FOX using their own can have difference of 20-30 metres either way. its pretty funny.

 

[Fangs]

The difference in NRL and FOX stats can be fairly significant sometimes, even for basic things like metres gained. I notice it in the reporting. Say Dylan has a big game 9(using NRL stats) will say he ran for 280m and FOX using their own can have difference of 20-30 metres either way. its pretty funny.

It can be yes on certain numbers. I've seen the NRL site change its numbers the day after a game so I usually don't spend much time looking at single match stats outside the big numbers e.g. team total run metres.

You've also got stone cold numbers like tries scored. Now if there is a difference between the two sites on that I'll be truly alarmed.

 

[Kilkenny]

I think the issue for me in 2024 is not so much certain individuals, I think it is a collective team issue. Despite not really performing as well as we have in previous seasons, we have put ourselves in a strong position to push for a spot in the top four. You can’t keep losing the quality players that we have lost, not been able to retain, and somehow magically perform at the same level. I’ve said it before, we have done extraordinarily well in my opinion to even be where we are. Back at full strength post SOO It should be interesting to see how we perform in the run into the finals to see if we can give ourselves a chance of another premiership. We need to move on from this on going nonsense around Tago and others. Tago is part of our best 17 and we just need to get behind him.

 

[betcats]

It can be yes on certain numbers. I've seen the NRL site change its numbers the day after a game so I usually don't spend much time looking at single match stats outside the big numbers e.g. team total run metres.

You've also got stone cold numbers like tries scored. Now if there is a difference between the two sites on that I'll be truly alarmed.

The NRLs always change, I always check straight after games and there is always some changes. I think its the same for fox but im not looking enough to be sure, the NRL app is just easier. When there is a diff my rule of thumb is to stay safe and just use whichever ones suit my argument the best.

 

[age.s]

I'm going to Wollongong with a Dragons maniac for this.

Don't f**k it up boys.

 

[Fangs]

The NRLs always change, I always check straight after games and there is always some changes. I think its the same for fox but im not looking enough to be sure, the NRL app is just easier. When there is a diff my rule of thumb is to stay safe and just use whichever ones suit my argument the best.

I have evolved I try not to do that anymore.

 

[Munky]

Its not perfect but its the best I've found available to fans. I'd love to see what data the Penrith Panthers collect in-house (The guy in the coaches box with the laptop would be my guess).

Prior to Pantherball becoming a thing I noticed that generally the missed tackle count of a team would be pretty close to total points conceded. For example twelve missed tackles would be twelve points against. A definite correlation although causation is tenuous.

The Panther (now Bulldogs too) defensive structure seems less concerned with missed tackles but more that the tackle attempt disrupts the opposition attack. By that I mean the ball carrier can't cleanly break the line themselves or pass to outside players with good timing.

Individual plays are a culmination of what comes before them. A poor kick chase or non dominant tackle in the middle can be responsible for the line break three PTBs later.

I'd like to know if the advanced metrics used in house consider the plays before hand.

 

[globalpanther]

Tyrell Sloan dropped according to Telegraph.

 

[globalpanther]

One of the Feagai's will play FB.

 

[maple_69]

It's interesting, coming into this season it looked like our foundation and strength (pack, go forward, kicking game) should not be too impacted by departures given the starting pack and back 3 were intact. I thought where we'd need to make up for the drop in class (Critta) would be Nath/Luai combining a bit more and hopefully getting both edges firing (previously we've been very wonky with the left strong and then the right, but never both).

I'd say our intensity, line speed and aggression in defence has been the biggest fundamental difference in our performance this year. Most games we are in the wrestle whereas last year teams barely sniffed our line or our half for that matter. Obviously we've had a new prop come in, a rotating cast on the edges all year and probably a rep hangover with our main middles to explain some of it. Penrith's juggernaut is built on putting extreme fatigue into teams and that makes defending your line on the odd occasion much easier. We haven't been doing that this year really and I think its another reason why our right edge has been exposed.

Hopefully we're well placed to start winding that back up going into August healthy though and our right edge will have some time to build confidence and combinations.

 

[Munky]

One of the Feagai's will play FB.

Hopefully we'll see the biggest bombing raid since Tokyo in 1945.