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Rumoured & Confirmed Signings - Part 5

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
61,318
It is shit, Next week there are 240 players finished for the year. Many of them have no idea where or if they will be playing next year.

Clubs like us would of loved to lock guys up before the finals, We can't as no cap

Once the Roosters sort their side out and cost the NRL will set the cap. What parts confusing?
 
Messages
21,880
We are paying $1.3m for a halfback due to hit his peak, Waiting 2-3 years makes no sense

We‘re not waiting. We still have a decent chance of winning next year, it’s just going to be more competitive. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t make the top 4 with our squad in 2023.

The idea is to remain competitive without the big dip in 3-4 years when the guys you overpay for are on the decline.
 

Iamback

Coach
Messages
19,003
We‘re not waiting. We still have a decent chance of winning next year, it’s just going to be more competitive. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t make the top 4 with our squad in 2023.

The idea is to remain competitive without the big dip in 3-4 years when the guys you overpay for are on the decline.

One hooking option is 60 odd games in with 2 try assists to his name

The other has 30 mins FG experience.

The plan B, Has 20 mins NSW Cup experience

That doesn't scream top 4, fortunately we should be sitting on some money to fix that for 2024
 

maple_69

Bench
Messages
4,531
Lucky for us it’s a team sport and the other 16 guys we’ll be fielding will likely be as good or better than the rest of the comp.

The Roosters barely have a hooker, the Broncs were top 4 for much of the season with Turpin, the Cowboys star hooker was a journeyman half until a year ago and Manly also fashioned a reserve grade half into a reliable hooker. None of these teams are near as complete as our squad across the 17.

Its not going to be a strength but I don’t think one key position suddenly drops us below the chasing pack of 4/5 teams.
 
Messages
21,880
One hooking option is 60 odd games in with 2 try assists to his name

The other has 30 mins FG experience.

The plan B, Has 20 mins NSW Cup experience

That doesn't scream top 4, fortunately we should be sitting on some money to fix that for 2024


Our 2023 squad is still comfortably better than the cowboys squad this year, the cowboys that are running 3rd.

We’ve had Cleary & Luai miss a stack of games in 2022 and still have won the minor premiership easily. I don’t see the lack of a quality hooker knocking us too far down the table.


Who’s available for 2024 that might fix it?
 
Messages
21,880
2023 is shaping up as quite even for 6 teams or so.

I can’t see much difference between

Penrith
Melbourne
Souths
Easts
Cronulla
Cowboys

But I’d still say our squad is slightly better than those teams, with the possible exception of Easts.

The Eels I think will be mid table next year.
 

age.s

First Grade
Messages
7,601
Lucky for us it’s a team sport and the other 16 guys we’ll be fielding will likely be as good or better than the rest of the comp.

The Roosters barely have a hooker, the Broncs were top 4 for much of the season with Turpin, the Cowboys star hooker was a journeyman half until a year ago and Manly also fashioned a reserve grade half into a reliable hooker. None of these teams are near as complete as our squad across the 17.

Its not going to be a strength but I don’t think one key position suddenly drops us below the chasing pack of 4/5 teams.
Agreed, though that's all assuming it doesn't go well with Luke, a guy who's main career limitation so far has been his body. There's plenty of scenarios where the arrangement works well or another option ends up bearing fruit (ie, Madden).

I do think it makes us more vulnerable to injuries in the spine though. Api carries us creatively when Nath/Luai aren't around. If they play 25 regular season games next year that won't be a factor, but that's a big if.
 

age.s

First Grade
Messages
7,601
2023 is shaping up as quite even for 6 teams or so.

I can’t see much difference between

Penrith
Melbourne
Souths
Easts
Cronulla
Cowboys

But I’d still say our squad is slightly better than those teams, with the possible exception of Easts.

The Eels I think will be mid table next year.
Big question mark on Melbourne. They're losing a ton of power from their pack.
 

Iamback

Coach
Messages
19,003
Our 2023 squad is still comfortably better than the cowboys squad this year, the cowboys that are running 3rd.

We’ve had Cleary & Luai miss a stack of games in 2022 and still have won the minor premiership easily. I don’t see the lack of a quality hooker knocking us too far down the table.


Who’s available for 2024 that might fix it?

Is it though? This starting pack

JFH
Kenny
Leota
Garner
Martin
Yeo

Cows and Sharks will get better, Storm with a fit Papen, Manly are a one man team so a fit Tom Turbo has them pushing top 4 again.

As for 2024, I'd be very surprised if we haven't gone under the cap.

Api $500k
Kikau $700k

Replaced by 2 forwards that would be around $200k. So I guess we just sit and see who has a fire sale
 
Messages
21,880
Is it though? This starting pack

JFH
Kenny
Leota
Garner
Martin
Yeo

Cows and Sharks will get better, Storm with a fit Papen, Manly are a one man team so a fit Tom Turbo has them pushing top 4 again.

As for 2024, I'd be very surprised if we haven't gone under the cap.

Api $500k
Kikau $700k

Replaced by 2 forwards that would be around $200k. So I guess we just sit and see who has a fire sale

Yes, I think the squad is still better than the cowboys.

Which hooker off contract at the end of 2023 do you think we should target?
 

Iamback

Coach
Messages
19,003
Yes, I think the squad is still better than the cowboys.

Which hooker off contract at the end of 2023 do you think we should target?

I'd go all in for Robson, if it costs us Crichton so be it

Realistically though, Madden looks a good size to make into a hooker. Or Jack Cole in Flegg, neither will see halves full time here
 
Messages
3,906
Worth reading part 1

History suggests Penrith’s premiership window may be closing quicker than you think​

As the NRL season rapidly approaches its penultimate rounds, top eight hopefuls are jostling amongst each other for seeding, home finals and second chances.


That is except Penrith, of course, who last week secured first place and the minor premiership, their second in three years (and third-straight top-two finish). It has been a dominant three-year stretch from the Panthers, resulting in two grand finals and what they hope are back-to-back premierships.
Media pundits don’t foresee this period of title contention ending anytime soon. Matthew Johns has fancied their chances of winning “four of the next 10 premierships”, noting the young age of the core group of players. Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and co. are largely aged 25 and under.


This sustained success is starting to affect the future outlook of the Penrith roster with the increased difficulty of retaining players who have now proven they have what it takes to win a premiership. Matt Burton left for the Bulldogs last off-season and Viliame Kikau is set to join him there in 2023.

This type of player poaching from rival clubs is nothing new in rugby league folklore, the poisoned chalice that washes down the celebratory champagne. Panthers fans would be quick to argue that you can’t keep them all and the team have retained the right players and let the lesser ones go. But that’s not necessarily true.


On top of the aforementioned blue and white departures is the Wests Tigers-bound Api Koroisau.


The starting hooker was lured to the cellar dwellers for a contract upgrade and the long-term security for him and his family. Slightly older than the core of juniors, one would think that the 29-year-old Koroisau was an acceptable sacrifice brought on by the inevitable cap squeeze.


However, as is detailed below, the past 25 years of rugby league suggests otherwise.
How do NRL sides fare after their starting hooker leaves? And more concisely, how important is a quality hooker to a premiership winning side?


Going through the premiers in the NRL era (1998 onwards) the evidence paints a rather concerning picture for the Panthers’ chances at lifting the trophy post the 2022 season.


1998 – Brisbane Broncos 38 – 12 Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs




Grand final-winning hooker: Phillip Lee
Rep experience (includes after this game): No
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Jason Hetherington (eight Queensland caps, two Australia caps)


1999 – Melbourne Storm 20 – 18 St George Illawarra Dragons


Grand final-winning hooker: Richard Swain
Rep experience: 19 career games for New Zealand
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Nathan Brown (no career rep experience)


2000 – Brisbane Broncos 14 – 6 Sydney Roosters


Grand final-winning hooker: Luke Priddis
Rep experience: Five games for NSW, two for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Simon Bonetti (no career rep experience)


2001 – Newcastle Knights 30 – 24 Parramatta Eels


Grand final-winning hooker: Danny Buderus
Rep experience: 21 games for NSW, 24 for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Brad Drew (no career rep experience)


2002 – Sydney Roosters 30 – 8 New Zealand Warriors


Grand final-winning hooker: Simon Bonetti
Rep experience: No
Did player leave next season? Yes
If so next year finish: Grand Final runners up
Opponent hooker: PJ Marsh (three games for Queensland)


2003 – Penrith Panthers 18 – 6 Sydney Roosters


Grand final-winning hooker: Luke Priddis
Rep experience: five games for NSW, two for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Michael Crocker and Craig Wing (14 games for Queensland, six for Australia/12 games for NSW, seven for Australia)


2004 – Bulldogs 16 – 13 Sydney Roosters


Grand final-winning Hooker: Adam Perry
Rep experience: No
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Craig Wing


2005 – Wests Tigers 30 – 16 North Queensland Cowboys


Grand final-winning hooker: Robbie Farah
Rep experience: 16 games for NSW, eight games for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Aaron Payne (no rep experience)


2006 – Brisbane Broncos 15 – 8 Melbourne Storm


Grand final-winning hooker: Shaun Berrigan
Rep experience: 15 games for Queensland, 14 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Cameron Smith (42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia)


2007 – Melbourne Storm 34 – 8 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles


Grand final-winning-hooker: Cameron Smith
Rep experience: 42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Michael Monaghan (no rep experience)
2008 – Many-Warringah Sea Eagles 40 – 0 Melbourne Storm


Grand final-winning hooker: Matt Ballin
Rep Experience: one game for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Russ Aitken (no rep experience) * Cameron Smith suspended


2009 – Melbourne Storm 23 – 16 Parramatta Eels


Grand final-winning Hooker: Cameron Smith
Rep experience: 42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Matthew Keating (no rep experience)
 
Messages
3,906
Part 2

2010 – St George Illawarra Dragons 32 – 8 Sydney Roosters


Grand final-winning hooker: Dean Young
Rep experience: One game for NSW, one game for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Jake Friend (three games for Queensland)


2011 – Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 24 – 10 New Zealand Warriors


Grand final-winning hooker: Matt Ballin
Rep experience: One game for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Lance Hohaia (28 games for NZ)


2012 – Melbourne Storm 14 – 4 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs


Grand final-winning Hooker: Cameron Smith
Rep Experience: 42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Michael Ennis (eight games for NSW)


2013 – Sydney Roosters 26 – 18 Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles


Grand final-winning hooker: Jake Friend
Rep experience: Three games for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Matt Ballin (one game for Queensland)
2014 – South Sydney Rabbitohs 30 – 6 Canterbury – Bankstown Bulldogs


Grand final-winning Hooker: Api Koroisau (*Issac Luke suspended)
Rep experience: Three games for NSW (*43 games for New Zealand)
Did player leave next season? Yes (*no)
If so next season finish: Seventh, lost in finals week one
Opponent hooker: Moses Mbye (three games for Queensland) *Mick Ennis injured (eight games for NSW)


2015 – North Queensland Cowboys 17 – 16 Brisbane Broncos


Grand final-winning hooker: Jake Granville
Rep Experience: No
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Andrew McCullough (four games for Queensland)


2016 – Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 14 – 12 Melbourne Storm


Grand final-winning Hooker: Mick Ennis
Rep Experience: Eight games for NSW
Did player leave next season? Yes
If so next season finish: Fifth, lost in finals week one
Opponent hooker: Cameron Smith (42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia)


2017 – Melbourne Storm 34 – 6 North Queensland Cowboys


Grand final-winning Hooker: Cameron Smith
Rep Experience: 42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent Hooker: Jake Granville (no rep experience)


2018 – Sydney Roosters 21 – 6 Melbourne Storm


Grand Final-winning Hooker: Jake Friend
Rep Experience: Three games for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent Hooker: Cameron Smith (42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia)


2019 – Sydney Roosters 14 – 8 Canberra Raiders


Grand final-winning hooker: Sam Verrills/Jake Friend
Rep experience: No/three games for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent Hooker: Josh Hodgson (19 games for England, four games for Great Britain)


2020 – Melbourne Storm 26 – 20 Penrith Panthers


Grand final-winning hooker: Cameron Smith
Rep Experience: 42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? Yes
If so next season finish: First, lost preliminary final
Opponent hooker: Api Koroisau (three games for NSW)


2021 – Penrith Panthers 14 – 12 South Sydney Rabbitohs


Grand final-winning hooker: Api Koroisau
Rep Experience: Three games for NSW
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Damien Cook (15 games for NSW, four games for Australia)

If you’ve stuck with me this long, I’m sure that you have picked up on the alarming trend that I am trying to magnify: quality hookers aren’t just important, they are crucial to winning premierships.


Of the last 24 premiership-winning hookers, only four did not play, or go onto play representative football. That’s only 16.6 per cent.


Only seven of the last 24 runners-up featured a hooker with no eventual rep experience.


Only four premiership sides have let their starting hooker leave after winning the title. None of those sides went back to back, and only one made it to the Grand Final (Roosters 2003). In fact, outside of the Roosters, none of those sides who instantly parted ways with their rake ever made it to a grand final again!


If we extrapolate to include instances where the winning hooker eventually leaves (in other words not straight after lifting the trophy), only the following teams have gone on to win another premiership since.
– 2000 Brisbane Broncos (Phillip Lee left, but not directly after original 1998 winning season)
– 2006 Brisbane Broncos (Luke Priddis left, but not directly after original winning 2000 season)


That’s it, that’s the list.


In fact, only five NRL era sides have gone on to win another grand final after letting their premiership hooker go at any point: the two Brisbane sides detailed above, and the Sydney Roosters in 2013, 2018 & 2019.


All five of those sides featured a No.9 who had played or would go on to play rep footy (Luke Priddis, Shaun Berrigan and Jake Friend).


Now a lot of the above data may be skewed by the dominance by the immortal Cameron Smith and you might argue that I have been generous in including players rep experience after the fact.


However, the data speaks for itself: clubs don’t let premiership-winning hookers go, clubs don’t let representative hookers go, and when they do, they usually don’t recover.


This tells me three things about Penrith’s decision to let Api Koroisau walk this off-season:


1. They must really rate Mitch Kenny
2. They have their eye on another elite hooker who might potentially come available (here’s a hint: they don’t)
3. They think they can make do without an elite hooker and become the fifth team to win without one (in the NRL era)


It seems unfair that I have gone this far without mentioning Penrith’s rake in waiting: Mitch Kenny. Kenny too is a Penrith junior, the same age as the key players retained by the Panthers, playing alongside his compatriots in the under-20s system.


After some time in NSW Cup he made his debut for the first grade side in their Round 11 victory over the Eels in 2019. Since then he has played 54 games, mostly off the bench or to fill in for Api Koroisau.


This is a standard introduction to first grade for an aspiring hooker, as they await an opportunity from the incumbent. However, Kenny did not feature in last year’s preliminary or grand final, ditto for the 2020 grand final loss to Melbourne.


He has played more this year, with 19 games at an average of 33 mins off the bench (this would be skewed with Koroisau missing games through State of Origin commitments) but the reading still presents a largely unproven player that the Panthers are putting a lot of faith in for 2023 and beyond.


Here are his stats compared to Koroisau this season:


Mitch Kenny (19 games) vs Api Koroisau (23 games)
– 1 linebreak – 6 linebreaks
– 2 line break assists – 14 line break assists
– 2 try Assists – 13 try assists
– 1 try – 4 tries
– 22.5 tackles per match – 41 tackles per match


Signed until the end of 2024, Kenny might become a rep player in the future and make me eat my words, but so far I am not convinced.


Penrith have done an admirable job at retaining key members of their spine and there will be some continued stability as a result, but the idea of future dominance as an assumed formality is astonishing.


In the NRL era there has only truly been one dynasty, a side led by the best hooker and player in rugby league history.


The Panthers are cruising right now, but they have their work cut out for them if they want to reach those same heights.

 

Aliceinwonderland

First Grade
Messages
7,808
Part 2

2010 – St George Illawarra Dragons 32 – 8 Sydney Roosters


Grand final-winning hooker: Dean Young
Rep experience: One game for NSW, one game for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Jake Friend (three games for Queensland)


2011 – Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 24 – 10 New Zealand Warriors


Grand final-winning hooker: Matt Ballin
Rep experience: One game for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Lance Hohaia (28 games for NZ)


2012 – Melbourne Storm 14 – 4 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs


Grand final-winning Hooker: Cameron Smith
Rep Experience: 42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Michael Ennis (eight games for NSW)


2013 – Sydney Roosters 26 – 18 Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles


Grand final-winning hooker: Jake Friend
Rep experience: Three games for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Matt Ballin (one game for Queensland)
2014 – South Sydney Rabbitohs 30 – 6 Canterbury – Bankstown Bulldogs


Grand final-winning Hooker: Api Koroisau (*Issac Luke suspended)
Rep experience: Three games for NSW (*43 games for New Zealand)
Did player leave next season? Yes (*no)
If so next season finish: Seventh, lost in finals week one
Opponent hooker: Moses Mbye (three games for Queensland) *Mick Ennis injured (eight games for NSW)


2015 – North Queensland Cowboys 17 – 16 Brisbane Broncos


Grand final-winning hooker: Jake Granville
Rep Experience: No
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Andrew McCullough (four games for Queensland)


2016 – Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 14 – 12 Melbourne Storm


Grand final-winning Hooker: Mick Ennis
Rep Experience: Eight games for NSW
Did player leave next season? Yes
If so next season finish: Fifth, lost in finals week one
Opponent hooker: Cameron Smith (42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia)


2017 – Melbourne Storm 34 – 6 North Queensland Cowboys


Grand final-winning Hooker: Cameron Smith
Rep Experience: 42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent Hooker: Jake Granville (no rep experience)


2018 – Sydney Roosters 21 – 6 Melbourne Storm


Grand Final-winning Hooker: Jake Friend
Rep Experience: Three games for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent Hooker: Cameron Smith (42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia)


2019 – Sydney Roosters 14 – 8 Canberra Raiders


Grand final-winning hooker: Sam Verrills/Jake Friend
Rep experience: No/three games for Queensland
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent Hooker: Josh Hodgson (19 games for England, four games for Great Britain)


2020 – Melbourne Storm 26 – 20 Penrith Panthers


Grand final-winning hooker: Cameron Smith
Rep Experience: 42 games for Queensland, 56 games for Australia
Did player leave next season? Yes
If so next season finish: First, lost preliminary final
Opponent hooker: Api Koroisau (three games for NSW)


2021 – Penrith Panthers 14 – 12 South Sydney Rabbitohs


Grand final-winning hooker: Api Koroisau
Rep Experience: Three games for NSW
Did player leave next season? No
Opponent hooker: Damien Cook (15 games for NSW, four games for Australia)

If you’ve stuck with me this long, I’m sure that you have picked up on the alarming trend that I am trying to magnify: quality hookers aren’t just important, they are crucial to winning premierships.


Of the last 24 premiership-winning hookers, only four did not play, or go onto play representative football. That’s only 16.6 per cent.


Only seven of the last 24 runners-up featured a hooker with no eventual rep experience.


Only four premiership sides have let their starting hooker leave after winning the title. None of those sides went back to back, and only one made it to the Grand Final (Roosters 2003). In fact, outside of the Roosters, none of those sides who instantly parted ways with their rake ever made it to a grand final again!


If we extrapolate to include instances where the winning hooker eventually leaves (in other words not straight after lifting the trophy), only the following teams have gone on to win another premiership since.
– 2000 Brisbane Broncos (Phillip Lee left, but not directly after original 1998 winning season)
– 2006 Brisbane Broncos (Luke Priddis left, but not directly after original winning 2000 season)


That’s it, that’s the list.


In fact, only five NRL era sides have gone on to win another grand final after letting their premiership hooker go at any point: the two Brisbane sides detailed above, and the Sydney Roosters in 2013, 2018 & 2019.


All five of those sides featured a No.9 who had played or would go on to play rep footy (Luke Priddis, Shaun Berrigan and Jake Friend).


Now a lot of the above data may be skewed by the dominance by the immortal Cameron Smith and you might argue that I have been generous in including players rep experience after the fact.


However, the data speaks for itself: clubs don’t let premiership-winning hookers go, clubs don’t let representative hookers go, and when they do, they usually don’t recover.


This tells me three things about Penrith’s decision to let Api Koroisau walk this off-season:


1. They must really rate Mitch Kenny
2. They have their eye on another elite hooker who might potentially come available (here’s a hint: they don’t)
3. They think they can make do without an elite hooker and become the fifth team to win without one (in the NRL era)


It seems unfair that I have gone this far without mentioning Penrith’s rake in waiting: Mitch Kenny. Kenny too is a Penrith junior, the same age as the key players retained by the Panthers, playing alongside his compatriots in the under-20s system.


After some time in NSW Cup he made his debut for the first grade side in their Round 11 victory over the Eels in 2019. Since then he has played 54 games, mostly off the bench or to fill in for Api Koroisau.


This is a standard introduction to first grade for an aspiring hooker, as they await an opportunity from the incumbent. However, Kenny did not feature in last year’s preliminary or grand final, ditto for the 2020 grand final loss to Melbourne.


He has played more this year, with 19 games at an average of 33 mins off the bench (this would be skewed with Koroisau missing games through State of Origin commitments) but the reading still presents a largely unproven player that the Panthers are putting a lot of faith in for 2023 and beyond.


Here are his stats compared to Koroisau this season:


Mitch Kenny (19 games) vs Api Koroisau (23 games)
– 1 linebreak – 6 linebreaks
– 2 line break assists – 14 line break assists
– 2 try Assists – 13 try assists
– 1 try – 4 tries
– 22.5 tackles per match – 41 tackles per match


Signed until the end of 2024, Kenny might become a rep player in the future and make me eat my words, but so far I am not convinced.


Penrith have done an admirable job at retaining key members of their spine and there will be some continued stability as a result, but the idea of future dominance as an assumed formality is astonishing.


In the NRL era there has only truly been one dynasty, a side led by the best hooker and player in rugby league history.


The Panthers are cruising right now, but they have their work cut out for them if they want to reach those same heights.



Who is the writer of this article ?

Sorry I didn't see it originally. Some of the comments are interesting to this article. It goes to show that you can get statistics to basically tell you what you want them to tell you.
 
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