Wrong.
It is contingent on the possibility that paying him based on the form of a single season would be overpaying him for the form he would show over the length of the contract.
On top of this, since we have a bunch of merkins on unders, we are unable to pay them all what they are worth. We couldn't fit them all under the cap. So the only players we should pay at their full value are the ones who have proved over multiple years that they are worth it.
So my point is that overpaying a player is worse than missing out on one who would've only signed at his full value. If Papali'i won't sign for what we are offering, that cap space won't disappear. It's for 2023 ffs. There's plenty of time to make some other decisions with that money.