It should be an interesting upcoming 10-15 years for the NRL.
By about 2020 (3 TV deals time) I'd estimate a realistic outcome for the NRL would be an 18 team competition as thus:
North QLD
Brisbane
SE QLD/Sunshine Coast/West Brisbane
Gold Coast
Central Coast (A relocated Sydney team)
Newcastle
Canberra
Melbourne
Perth
Auckland
Wellington
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Sydney x7 (1 relocation to Gosford and 1 new joint venture or a club drops down to the new open age NSW comp)
This would cover every city along the eastern seaboard capable of supporting an NRL team, as well as seeing teams located in Canberra, Melbourne, Perth, Auckland and Wellington.
Another Brisbane/SE QLD team is a must within 10 years. By 2030 QLD will be the second most populous state in Australia. The Broncos needs another local rival not only for the people of Brisbane whom dislike the Broncos, but so a game can be played out of Suncorp almost every week. Ideally this new team would play out of a Titans like boutique stadium and take 3 of the years biggest games to Suncorp (much like the Titans). This team will likely have to be a new venture, state pride still reigns supreme in QLD and I cannot see QLDers throwing their support behind a team that was conceived in NSW.
Wellington should be given serious consideration as NZ is producing large numbers of quality players. A second team will strengthen NZ for international games, and interest in league would be stronger if the Warriors are traveling poorly. A Wellington franchise would also increase the value of the NZ rights (It was $8 million a year in 2001), Strengthen League as a game in NZ, and create a rivalry with the Warriors.
The Central Coast will be seen as an ideal relocation point for an existing Sydney team as:
a) A relocated NSW team won't work in QLD, and WA is taking a different path with the WA Reds (and seem to have ARL's backing that this is the way to go) .
b) A Sydney team has the best chance of retaining existing fans if the club is moved to a location within driving distance.
c) Their are already 9 teams within driving distance of Gosford.
d) It is the least appealing option in term of growing the amount of revenue the NRL can earn.
Ideally in an 18 team comp teams would play each other once during the regular season, with all teams having 2 byes in the lead up to Origin games. This would mean there would be 3 games played on the weekend leading into each Origin, making it a 19 week regular season + 4 weeks of finals (still top 8). 24 is too many in terms of the physical strain on the players and it's hard to keep interest over such a long season as losses don't mean as much. Each team would host their opposition at home every second year allowing for greater hype of matches and bigger crowds, making games bigger local events. To make up for the season being 5 weeks shorter an official televised pre-season competition should be created, and an NRL V. Euro SuperLeague series as well as Test matches should be played a few weeks after the Grand Final.
Which Sydney teams are in danger of relocation/relegation? The stadium facilities available to clubs will become more and more a case of the haves and have-not's over the coming decade. Those clubs playing out of the more advanced venues will have a greater chance of drawing casual spectators and converting them to regular attendee's and will have a huge advantage in drawing corporate support where a premium can be made.
One of the best ways to ensure that the government keeps the grants to your clubs stadium flowing (besides being located in a marginal seat) is for the venue to accommodate as many tenants as possible. More games being played = more spectators = a higher return on the governments continual investment.
There is a clear correlation between the number of games hosted at a venue and the amount of government money spent on upkeep and upgrades.
The "Big 3" league grounds: Telstra, Aussie/SFS and Suncorp all have multiple tenants.
The key for the Storm obtaining a new state of the art stadium has been a commitment from the A-League and the new Provincial Rugby Competition to base clubs at the ground.
Newcastle's EAS now has an A-League tenant, and it is likely over the next few years that North QLD, the Gold Coast and Canberra stadiums will be afforded further updates if A-League clubs take up residence.
Clubs that will likely have difficulty sourcing further funds for Stadium upgrades include: Manly, Cronulla, Wests Tigers (Unless they decide to primarily locate themselves at one of their many current home grounds), Parramatta and Penrith (Although CUA and Parramatta Stadium may have a shot at obtaining an A-League tenant).
