Unlucky?

[Poupou Escobar]

I've seen pou get smashed before, but never quite like this.....I actually feel pity for him.

*trolled

 

[the phantom menace]

*reamed

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Is this the TLT thread for the Bye week?

This thread is for discussing our long term grand final record since 1986, by comparison with other clubs.

To compare coaches, since 1986 these merkins have had the following grand final results:

Coach	Seasons coached (since '86)	GF appearances (since '86)	Seasons per GF	Wins	Win rate
Bennett	36	9.5 (with Furner)	3.8	7	74%
Bellamy	22	9	2.4	5	56%
Cleary	17	5	3.4	3	60%
Hasler	18	5	3.6	2	40%
Sheens	29	5	5.8	4	80%
Fulton	9	4	2.3	2	50%
Smith	22	4	5.5	0	0%
Stuart	20	4	5	1	25%
C. Anderson	15	3	5	2	67%
Gould	12	3	4	2	67%
Robinson	11	3	3.7	3	100%
D. Anderson	6	2	3	0	0%
Folkes	11	2	5.5	1	50%
Green	7	2	3.5	1	50%
Lang	15	2	7.5	1	50%
Murray	15	2	7.5	0	0%
Ryan	10	2	5	0	0%
Waite	9	2	4.5	0	0%
Arthur	10	1	10	0	0%
Flanagan	7	1	7	1	100%
Hagan	8	1	8	1	100%
Maguire	10	1	10	1	100%
Reilly	4	1	4	1	100%
Toovey	4	1	4	0	0%
Walters	3	1	3	0	0%
Furner	0.5	0.5	1	0	0%

I've left space for some of these other merkins to share their own conclusions. But there are some pretty obvious correlations to fall out of this. Especially when you overlay this with grand final appearances by clubs over the same time frame. I should probably go back and add the number of seasons each club has been in the competition, since grand final appearances per season seems more important than grand final win rate. This will decide if our best option is Madge or Don Furner.

So that's what this thread is for, if you have something useful to add. For everyone else, this thread is for trolling.

 

[emjaycee]

A fair few of them are dead.

 

[Hindmarshisgod2]

This thread is for discussing our long term grand final record since 1986, by comparison with other clubs.

To compare coaches, since 1986 these merkins have had the following grand final results:

Coach	Seasons coached (since '86)	GF appearances (since '86)	Seasons per GF	Wins	Win rate
Bennett	36	9.5 (with Furner)	3.8	7	74%
Bellamy	22	9	2.4	5	56%
Cleary	17	5	3.4	3	60%
Hasler	18	5	3.6	2	40%
Sheens	29	5	5.8	4	80%
Fulton	9	4	2.3	2	50%
Smith	22	4	5.5	0	0%
Stuart	20	4	5	1	25%
C. Anderson	15	3	5	2	67%
Gould	12	3	4	2	67%
Robinson	11	3	3.7	3	100%
D. Anderson	6	2	3	0	0%
Folkes	11	2	5.5	1	50%
Green	7	2	3.5	1	50%
Lang	15	2	7.5	1	50%
Murray	15	2	7.5	0	0%
Ryan	10	2	5	0	0%
Waite	9	2	4.5	0	0%
Arthur	10	1	10	0	0%
Flanagan	7	1	7	1	100%
Hagan	8	1	8	1	100%
Maguire	10	1	10	1	100%
Reilly	4	1	4	1	100%
Toovey	4	1	4	0	0%
Walters	3	1	3	0	0%
Furner	0.5	0.5	1	0	0%

I've left space for some of these other merkins to share their own conclusions. But there are some pretty obvious correlations to fall out of this. Especially when you overlay this with grand final appearances by clubs over the same time frame. I should probably go back and add the number of seasons each club has been in the competition, since grand final appearances per season seems more important than grand final win rate. This will decide if our best option is Madge or Don Furner.

So that's what this thread is for, if you have something useful to add. For everyone else, this thread is for trolling.

Love your effort.... 10/10 stuff.

But all your efforts don't matter anymore.
BA is gone.
Bennett is in. We heard it here on LU first.
The drought will be over in 2025/26

 

[Poupou Escobar]

A fair few of them are dead.

ffs not Madge!!!

 

[King-Gutho94]

This thread is for discussing our long term grand final record since 1986, by comparison with other clubs.

To compare coaches, since 1986 these merkins have had the following grand final results:

Coach	Seasons coached (since '86)	GF appearances (since '86)	Seasons per GF	Wins	Win rate
Bennett	36	9.5 (with Furner)	3.8	7	74%
Bellamy	22	9	2.4	5	56%
Cleary	17	5	3.4	3	60%
Hasler	18	5	3.6	2	40%
Sheens	29	5	5.8	4	80%
Fulton	9	4	2.3	2	50%
Smith	22	4	5.5	0	0%
Stuart	20	4	5	1	25%
C. Anderson	15	3	5	2	67%
Gould	12	3	4	2	67%
Robinson	11	3	3.7	3	100%
D. Anderson	6	2	3	0	0%
Folkes	11	2	5.5	1	50%
Green	7	2	3.5	1	50%
Lang	15	2	7.5	1	50%
Murray	15	2	7.5	0	0%
Ryan	10	2	5	0	0%
Waite	9	2	4.5	0	0%
Arthur	10	1	10	0	0%
Flanagan	7	1	7	1	100%
Hagan	8	1	8	1	100%
Maguire	10	1	10	1	100%
Reilly	4	1	4	1	100%
Toovey	4	1	4	0	0%
Walters	3	1	3	0	0%
Furner	0.5	0.5	1	0	0%

I've left space for some of these other merkins to share their own conclusions. But there are some pretty obvious correlations to fall out of this. Especially when you overlay this with grand final appearances by clubs over the same time frame. I should probably go back and add the number of seasons each club has been in the competition, since grand final appearances per season seems more important than grand final win rate. This will decide if our best option is Madge or Don Furner.

So that's what this thread is for, if you have something useful to add. For everyone else, this thread is for trolling.

Daniel Anderson averaging making a GF every 3 years and we sacked him.

 

[Twizzle]

Love your effort.... 10/10 stuff.

But all your efforts don't matter anymore.
BA is gone.
Bennett is in. We heard it here on LU first.
The drought will be over in 2025/26

if Benny comes, it may be some time before the drought is over, 1 or 2 years may be a bit ambitious

 

[Hindmarshisgod2]

if Benny comes, it may be some time before the drought is over, 1 or 2 years may be a bit ambitious

Benny doesn't f**k around....

It will happen either first year or latest second year...

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Daniel Anderson averaging making a GF every 3 years and we sacked him.

And then no other club picked him up. I don’t see what was wrong with him.

 

[the phantom menace]

But there are some pretty obvious correlations to fall out of this. Especially when you overlay this with grand final appearances by clubs over the same time frame. I should probably go back and add the number of seasons each club has been in the competition, since grand final appearances per season seems more important than grand final win rate. This will decide if our best option is Madge or Don Furner.

But as you know, correlation is not causation... so it won't "decide" anything about who our best option is at all.

 

[King-Gutho94]

And then no other club picked him up. I don’t see what was wrong with him.

Tbf his reputation was smashed by the grubs like Spags and Osborne running the joint leaking like a sieve.

 

[lucablight]

Sure but for an outside observer how do you determine the potential of the playing squad?

There is huge demand for the 'right people', so they cost a lot more than the 'wrong people'.

Is it possible to maximise the squad's potential every year and still fail to win premierships because other squads with more potential are being maximised? Bennet's premiership drought is longer than Brad Arthur's entire career. Does Bennett move on because those clubs think he failed? I'm certain he moves on because he knows the premiership window closed and he doesn't want to waste his time at a club without a realistic chance of winning.

You say that because you continually misrepresent my argument. We could've won a premiership under Arthur just as Newcastle and Souths could have won under Bennett. What was lacking during those premiership windows was luck.

Well that's good because it's not my assertion. Some coaches are obviously better than others. But every coach has different amounts of luck in a given year.

Why hasn't Bennett won a premiership since 2010?

Same reason Robinson only won six games in 2016.

Honestly, I think they got a massive boost in resources in 2012. A club's level of resourcing isn't static. Look at the Eels under Arthur pre-2019 compared to our performance since.

Agreed. But a feature of the best coaches is that they only go to clubs (or remain there) when they have a realistic chance at winning. This is why Bennett would be willing to leave the Dolphins, because they are still a few years away. It's why I'd be surprised if he came to Parra before 2026, if at all. It's why Cleary was willing to go to a club like the Tigers when he hadn't won anything. It's why Maguire went there after the 2014 gloss wore off. It's why Ricky Stuart went to Parra and then Canberra, because he didn't have better options. And it's why Arthur is happy to remain at Parra with our premiership window closed. Because his alternatives will be clubs like Newcastle or Souths.

I’m on my phone so I’ll have to reply to your points in numerical form

1.) I would say missing the finals two years in a row with this roster is a pretty fair indication this teams potential isn’t being maximised. Wouldn’t you agree?
2.)If the right people cost more money then we need to be more ambitious don’t we? I’m going to reject your assertions that we aren’t in a position to afford it.
3.) I don’t think the potential of the squad is being maximised atm though. Last years roster was a finals team. So is this years one. Let’s see what happens.
4.) Bellamy must be the luckiest coach ever. Manages to get his team performing consistently every season no matter how many plodders he has. Were obviously extremely unlucky. Getting a spoon and missing finals in seasons where we have a finals worthy roster. Only making it past week 3 once in 11 years as well.
5.) If coaches only go to clubs they have realistic shots at winning why did Bennett go to the Dragons and Knights? Are we a less attractive proposition than those clubs now? I also reject your premise about Ricky Stuart going to Canberra because it was the only option available to him. I’m pretty sure he has family matters to attend to over there and working with Furner gives him job security.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I’m on my phone so I’ll have to reply to your points in numerical form

1.) I would say missing the finals two years in a row with this roster is a pretty fair indication this teams potential isn’t being maximised. Wouldn’t you agree?

Not necessarily. I think we were unlucky last year with injuries and suspensions and this year most of our key players are in their thirties.

2.)If the right people cost more money then we need to be more ambitious don’t we? I’m going to reject your assertions that we aren’t in a position to afford it.

Well I certainly can't prove it, much like you. We spent the most we've ever spent on football operations last year, so the club is aware of the need to increase funding. But I was also disappointed to see the amount of increase slowed significantly compared to the previous years. To be fair they were coming off the very low base of Covid-affected 2020.

3.) I don’t think the potential of the squad is being maximised atm though. Last years roster was a finals team. So is this years one. Let’s see what happens.

I hope for our sake the squad actually have it in them to perform better but I suspect father time has caught up with our pack. If I'm right it'll be a long season. So like everyone else around here, I hope I'm wrong.

4.) Bellamy must be the luckiest coach ever.

Anyone coaching the Storm should feel lucky. This is a club that won the comp in their second season. They averaged over 13 regular season wins per year in the half decade before Bellamy joined. By contrast Arthur's took over a club that averaged fewer than 8 in the preceding five years.

Manages to get his team performing consistently every season no matter how many plodders he has.

I agree he is a very good coach.

Were obviously extremely unlucky. Getting a spoon and missing finals in seasons where we have a finals worthy roster. Only making it past week 3 once in 11 years as well.

Three times in 37 years actually. We're either unlucky or under resourced. You can't keep blaming the increasingly long string of people. If we were better resourced we would attract better people.

5.) If coaches only go to clubs they have realistic shots at winning why did Bennett go to the Dragons and Knights?

He also didn't hang around those clubs after his three years were up. Was he sacked?

Are we a less attractive proposition than those clubs now?

I hope not. I guess we'll find out.

 

[MarkInTheStands]

No, we are not unlucky.

We have an issue at this club. It is the same issue we have had at this club for a while.
It was here before the current 3 year term rotating board.

It was here before the last board that got done for salary cap breaches because they hired a con man from the Bulldogs Marketing team

It was here before the previous board that run on Good Vibes and backroom deals.

It was here before the coup that installed that board and made everyone feel good.

It was here during the Smith years, the Hilditch Years and the Cronin years.

It is a soft underbelly and no mental toughness. WE ARN'T RUTHLESS and it hurts us.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Bennett is in. We heard it here on LU first.

I said this 3 weeks ago.

 

[lucablight]

Not necessarily. I think we were unlucky last year with injuries and suspensions and this year most of our key players are in their thirties.

Well I certainly can't prove it, much like you. We spent the most we've ever spent on football operations last year, so the club is aware of the need to increase funding. But I was also disappointed to see the amount of increase slowed significantly compared to the previous years. To be fair they were coming off the very low base of Covid-affected 2020.

I hope for our sake the squad actually have it in them to perform better but I suspect father time has caught up with our pack. If I'm right it'll be a long season. So like everyone else around here, I hope I'm wrong.

Anyone coaching the Storm should feel lucky. This is a club that won the comp in their second season. They averaged over 13 regular season wins per year in the half decade before Bellamy joined. By contrast Arthur's took over a club that averaged fewer than 8 in the preceding five years.

I agree he is a very good coach.

Three times in 37 years actually. We're either unlucky or under resourced. You can't keep blaming the increasingly long string of people. If we were better resourced we would attract better people.

He also didn't hang around those clubs after his three years were up. Was he sacked?

I hope not. I guess we'll find out.

1.) The killer for last season was losing those close games at the start of the season. I don’t think injuries and suspensions played a major role during that period.

2.) Not sure what spending has to do with the nrl 2023 squad.

3.) In the past you said we’d be fine and used the Sharks as evidence that you can be successful with a squad made up of players in their 30s. Have you changed your position?

4.) Melbourne obviously have a very good talent identification system. Imagine losing Slater, Inglis, Cronk and Smith and replacing them with Papenhuyzen, Munster Hughes and Grant. Outsmarted by a team with a far inferior junior catchment area.

5.) Melbourne have good decision makers. I remember in 2006 Phil Gould tipped them to finish near the bottom of the ladder after they lost Orford and replaced him with nobody utility with a funny name called Cooper Cronk. That was nothing to do with resources.

6.) Or we have had a string of people who were unable to fully maximise the resources available to them

7.) Wayne Bennett leaving those clubs has nothing to do with your assertion that he only goes to clubs that are sure things to win a title.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

No, we are not unlucky.

We have an issue at this club. It is the same issue we have had at this club for a while.
It was here before the current 3 year term rotating board.

It was here before the last board that got done for salary cap breaches because they hired a con man from the Bulldogs Marketing team

It was here before the previous board that run on Good Vibes and backroom deals.

It was here before the coup that installed that board and made everyone feel good.

It was here during the Smith years, the Hilditch Years and the Cronin years.

It is a soft underbelly and no mental toughness. WE ARN'T RUTHLESS and it hurts us.

Seems pretty unlucky to me

 

[Poupou Escobar]

1.) The killer for last season was losing those close games at the start of the season. I don’t think injuries and suspensions played a major role during that period.

There's no three games more important than any other ffs. Can you put your shit narratives away

2.) Not sure what spending has to do with the nrl 2023 squad.

The 2023 squad won half of its games. It's not a good example of anything. Almost every club will win fewer than that in a given five year period.

3.) In the past you said we’d be fine and used the Sharks as evidence that you can be successful with a squad made up of players in their 30s. Have you changed your position?

I think so. 2016 NRL was a much slower game.

4.) Melbourne obviously have a very good talent identification system. Imagine losing Slater, Inglis, Cronk and Smith and replacing them with Papenhuyzen, Munster Hughes and Grant. Outsmarted by a team with a far inferior junior catchment area.

Melbourne are the best club in the game. No point crying about it. I f**ken hate them.

5.) Melbourne have good decision makers. I remember in 2006 Phil Gould tipped them to finish near the bottom of the ladder after they lost Orford and replaced him with nobody utility with a funny name called Cooper Cronk. That was nothing to do with resources.

Good decision makers are nothing to do with resources? Really? I suspect the best decision makers cost a lot more than the worst ones.

6.) Or we have had a string of people who were unable to fully maximise the resources available to them

Maybe we should use those resources to hire some better ones.

7.) Wayne Bennett leaving those clubs has nothing to do with your assertion that he only goes to clubs that are sure things to win a title.

I can't have said that because I don't believe sure things exist. I said Bennett wants to be at clubs with a realistic chance of winning. He spent 20+ years at the Broncos but now suddenly can't stay at one club for more than four? I reckon Bennett is a glory hog. He doesn't want to go anywhere he knows it will be hard. Good on him for building up the Dolphins though, he would've known year one would be difficult, but there's plenty of glory just being inaugural coach of an NRL club.

 

[lucablight]

There's no three games more important than any other ffs. Can you put your shit narratives away

The 2023 squad won half of its games. It's not a good example of anything. Almost every club will win fewer than that in a given five year period.

I think so. 2016 NRL was a much slower game.

Melbourne are the best club in the game. No point crying about it. I f**ken hate them.

Good decision makers are nothing to do with resources? Really? I suspect the best decision makers cost a lot more than the worst ones.

Maybe we should use those resources to hire some better ones.

I can't have said that because I don't believe sure things exist. I said Bennett wants to be at clubs with a realistic chance of winning. He spent 20+ years at the Broncos but now suddenly can't stay at one club for more than four? I reckon Bennett is a glory hog. He doesn't want to go anywhere he knows it will be hard. Good on him for building up the Dolphins though, he would've known year one would be difficult, but there's plenty of glory just being inaugural coach of an NRL club.

1.) I don’t see how winnable games that we dropped didn’t end up being more important in the end. I suppose they were just as important as our final round dead rubber where we beat the eventual premiers?

2.) It doesn’t matter if the 2023 team would have made the finals in 2023. Have to assess each team relative to its peers in the same year.

3.) Most of those same forwards made a grand final two years ago in the fast game.

4.) We should strive to be the best. I don’t really appreciate it if our club just threw their hands in the air and said they’re just too good for us we can’t compete. Imagine if Penrith had that attitude?

5.) If it was as easy as just buying the best decision makers using money then the Roosters and Broncos wouldn’t have received the spoon in the modern era. You don’t seem to get that it’s also how you utilise your resources that matters. Just having them isn’t enough. Penrith finally managed to manage theirs effectively after years of mediocrity. I think myself and a lot of other posters here believe our clubs resources aren’t being utilised to their fullest potential.

6.) When Bennett took over the Dragons they were in a similar position to us. Perennial underachievers who hadn’t won a competition in ages. I don’t remember the odds for the Dragons in 2009 but they finished 6th (week 3 finals) 13th and 7th (week 1 finals). Hardly a team that was contending for a title. Bennett turned them into a consistent team in 2009 (minor premiers) before they choked in the finals but atoned for it the next season. I don’t know how you can say that wasn’t a hard job.