A lot depends on where the NRL is heading in ten years time and how many teams are seen as optimal for the comp.
Ten years is way too short a timescale to be considering. We need to be thinking about where the comp and the markets are going to be in thirty or fifty years. Sure the Sunshine Coast might be borderline on whether it could support a team today, the same way the Gold Coast was fifteen years ago. But where will it be in thirty years and what sort of market support will our teams need to flourish in thirty years? As you point out the Gold Coast is now big enough to support a team regardless of whether it is 100km or 1000km from Brisbane. The same will one day be true of the Sunshine Coast and we should be factoring that now into our long term planning.
What we don't want to do is repeat the historical mistakes of the development of the club distribution in Sydney. For example a team based in Cronulla looked like a great idea in 1967 to further tap into the large market in southern Sydney and bring St George back to the pack. But thirty years later in an era where clubs need to turnover $15m to $20m to compete and need to suck substantial corporate backing and paying supporters from a radius of 100 to 200 km, basing another team in southern Sydney no longer looks like such a great long term move.
Even with the regional hub plan, there'll of course be natural overlap of corporate and fan bases. But at least each club will have a market in its own right capable of guaranteeing its long term corporate and fan support (again regardless of whether the separation is 100km or 1000km). What we don't want is to end up like we are in so many parts of Sydney where the rapidly rising cost of competeing in the big league is starting to outstrip the market's ability to support multiple teams on each other's doorstep. This has led and will lead to much pain as clubs are forced to merge, relocate, die or be ejected.
Rather than place another team right on an existing team's doorstep in Brisbane city and then find in fifty years (when it takes $100m annual turnover to support a club) that one of these teams needs to merge, relocate, die or be ejected, I think the much better strategy is to ensure each new team has its own market that will be able to support it long term as both grow. The only place that the difference between the 100km and 1000km proximity comes into it is the bonus that while we're ensuring these teams have their own market to support them long term, we're also able to leverage their proximity to Brisbane to provide some more top quality blockbuster games at the fantastic lake... ummm stadium that is Suncorp.
Leigh