18th club, whose next?

[Wb1234]

Either the ARLC will cover the cost or the licence will be awarded to some one else.

Or they could be viable on their own by then like the storm were after money got invested in them

 

[Colk]

Either the ARLC will cover the cost or the licence will be awarded to some one else.

That would be a whole lot worse than not giving them a licence at all:

 

[Canard]

So the whole PNG foreign aid budget ($600M) is going to Rugby League?

 

[Canard]

PNG will generate no TV money, and no Game Day revenue.

Suddenly @Get Rid of The Donkeys is willing to ignore this, when 98% of his posts for the last 2 years, insist these are the only metrics that count for the NRL.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Or they could be viable on their own by then like the storm were after money got invested in them

That's a possibility. The mining sector might inject a significant sum of money into the club.

 

[Canard]

That's a possibility. The mining sector might inject a significant sum of money into the club.

No club runs solely on sponsorship, and no club could do so sustainably

 

[Maximus]

These mining companies are going to put 10s of millions of dollars into the club every year for what reason?

 

[mongoose]

That's a possibility. The mining sector might inject a significant sum of money into the club.

if only Perth had a mining sector...

 

[Wb1234]

if only Perth had a mining sector...

Yeh they are going to ignore the afl clubs and twiggy will walk away from union bc they want an nrl team so bad

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

if only Perth had a mining sector...

If only Perth had a mining magnate willing to invest in a Perth-based NRL team...

 

[Maximus]

Where is the evidence that any mining companies want to invest in a PNG team?

 

[nko11]

Quick Analysis on the current contenders, decided to use Entire Market (Western Australia, PNG, NZ South Island, SEQ, etc) for GDP data, as that's going to be relevant for sponsorship's etc. -

Perth -
Population of Entire Market: 2,805,000
Population of Direct Market: 2,192,229
Current Growth rate: 3.1%

GDP: $377.257 billion (AUD)
GDP per Capita: $135,320
GDP growth rate: 2.1%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 20,500


PNG -
Population of Entire Market: 11,781,559
Population of Direct Market: 409,831
Current Growth rate: 1.9% (urbanisation likely to occur in the future with economic growth)

GDP: $31.692 billion (USD)
GDP per Capita: $2,581
GDP growth rate: 5.2%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 14,800


Christchurch -
Population of Entire Market: 1,225,000
Population of Direct Market: 521,881
Current Growth rate: 1.67%

GDP: $78.94 billion (NZD)
GDP per Capita: $65,875
GDP growth rate: 6.4%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 25,000-30,000 (New high quality stadium. Big +)

Brisbane 3 -
Population of Entire Market: 3,800.000 (/4 = 950,000)
Population of Direct Market: ~866,000
Current Growth rate: 2.6%

GDP: $279.79 billion (/4 = $69.9 billion)
GDP per Capita: $73,629
GDP growth rate: 2.5%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 52,500/5,500/5,000


Adelaide -
Population of Entire Market: 1,815,485
Population of Direct Market: 1,418,455
Current Growth rate: 1.7%

GDP: $108.334 billion
GDP per Capita: $61,582
GDP growth rate: 3.8%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 16,500


My synopsis: From the above metrics, Perth is the clear front runner. The one part of data that is hard to capture is the potential to supply high quality players into the NRL. Theoretically PNG has the population and passion for the game, to supply near as many players as the whole of Australia. If junior pathway programs were up to scratch there really isn't any reason there shouldn't be 100-150+ players of PNG descent in top 30 NRL squads. This is a pretty big selling point, Could be the way we expand to 20+ teams in the future and be the way into the league for a lot of the places above. A 10 year funding plan isn't enough though. Far too much instability. A better funding model needs to be approved with the government to ensure they survive longterm. 25 years+ will be needed before PNG will be sustainable without government funds.
PNG is a pretty unique situation though. Anything that builds PNG builds the NRL. Imagine a world where PNG has a GDP per Capita of $20-30k. The PNG TV deal would be massive.
The NRL is also in a good position compared to the AFL in terms of expansion effecting competition quality. We have a lot of other sources to get HQ players - Super League, Rugby Union, etc. Whereas new teams for AFL must be filled with lower league players coming into the league.

Just out of interest:
Hobart -

Population of Entire Market: 571,165
Population of Direct Market: 252,639
Current Growth rate: 0.42%

GDP: $32.102 billion
GDP per Capita: $59,779
GDP growth rate: 3.5%

Expected Stadium Capacity: 23,000

I think this just highlights the expansion options the NRL has that the AFL just doesn't. Way more growth opportunities available.

 

[Titanic]

Neutral in my support of the PNG bid but those who know PNG well will understand that developing grassroots rugby league across the country is a bottomless pit of logistical and cultural challenges. Fortunately operating an NRL franchise is largely divorced from local struggles, a point often missed in these debates. No matter how much warm and fuzzy (no pun intended) propaganda is circulated about the benefit of an NRL franchise to the local competition, the reality will be very very different.

You can argue about the potential of the PNG player pool until you're red, black and gold in the face but that is a very old chestnut, touted since Independence in 1975 (or even back to 1960 when Sir John Kaputin became the first "native" to play with the white players). No matter the great numbers of players, the great coaches, the motivation and buckets of money unless there is transparent administration at ground level then it is all a pipedream. The franchise itself will most likely swallow all the cash up anyway making the whole grassroots development debate redundant.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Quick Analysis on the current contenders, decided to use Entire Market (Western Australia, PNG, NZ South Island, SEQ, etc) for GDP data, as that's going to be relevant for sponsorship's etc. -

Perth -
Population of Entire Market: 2,805,000
Population of Direct Market: 2,192,229
Current Growth rate: 3.1%

GDP: $377.257 billion (AUD)
GDP per Capita: $135,320
GDP growth rate: 2.1%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 20,500


PNG -
Population of Entire Market: 11,781,559
Population of Direct Market: 409,831
Current Growth rate: 1.9% (urbanisation likely to occur in the future with economic growth)

GDP: $31.692 billion (USD)
GDP per Capita: $2,581
GDP growth rate: 5.2%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 14,800


Christchurch -
Population of Entire Market: 1,225,000
Population of Direct Market: 521,881
Current Growth rate: 1.67%

GDP: $78.94 billion (NZD)
GDP per Capita: $65,875
GDP growth rate: 6.4%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 25,000-30,000 (New high quality stadium. Big +)

Brisbane 3 -
Population of Entire Market: 3,800.000 (/4 = 950,000)
Population of Direct Market: ~866,000
Current Growth rate: 2.6%

GDP: $279.79 billion (/4 = $69.9 billion)
GDP per Capita: $73,629
GDP growth rate: 2.5%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 52,500/5,500/5,000


Adelaide -
Population of Entire Market: 1,815,485
Population of Direct Market: 1,418,455
Current Growth rate: 1.7%

GDP: $108.334 billion
GDP per Capita: $61,582
GDP growth rate: 3.8%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 16,500


My synopsis: From the above metrics, Perth is the clear front runner. The one part of data that is hard to capture is the potential to supply high quality players into the NRL. Theoretically PNG has the population and passion for the game, to supply near as many players as the whole of Australia. If junior pathway programs were up to scratch there really isn't any reason there shouldn't be 100-150+ players of PNG descent in top 30 NRL squads. This is a pretty big selling point, Could be the way we expand to 20+ teams in the future and be the way into the league for a lot of the places above. A 10 year funding plan isn't enough though. Far too much instability. A better funding model needs to be approved with the government to ensure they survive longterm. 25 years+ will be needed before PNG will be sustainable without government funds.
PNG is a pretty unique situation though. Anything that builds PNG builds the NRL. Imagine a world where PNG has a GDP per Capita of $20-30k. The PNG TV deal would be massive.
The NRL is also in a good position compared to the AFL in terms of expansion effecting competition quality. We have a lot of other sources to get HQ players - Super League, Rugby Union, etc. Whereas new teams for AFL must be filled with lower league players coming into the league.

Just out of interest:
Hobart -

Population of Entire Market: 571,165
Population of Direct Market: 252,639
Current Growth rate: 0.42%

GDP: $32.102 billion
GDP per Capita: $59,779
GDP growth rate: 3.5%

Expected Stadium Capacity: 23,000

I think this just highlights the expansion options the NRL has that the AFL just doesn't. Way more growth opportunities available.

GDP and population are irrelevant. If they were the most important factor then Melbourne Storm should be the richest rugby league club in the world because they have a market of 5 million people all to themselves. The two largest and richest rugby league clubs in the world are the Brisbane Broncos and Redcliffe Dolphins, despite the Brisbane market only being half the size. North Queensland Cowboys earn more revenue from football operations than every Sydney club, despite representing a region that has just 500k people and being based in a city with a population of 170k.

The most important metric is how many dedicated fans and businesses are willing to invest their time and money on an NRL club. On this metric, Brisbane 3 is light years ahead of Perth and every other potential bidder.

 

[Colk]

Quick Analysis on the current contenders, decided to use Entire Market (Western Australia, PNG, NZ South Island, SEQ, etc) for GDP data, as that's going to be relevant for sponsorship's etc. -

Perth -
Population of Entire Market: 2,805,000
Population of Direct Market: 2,192,229
Current Growth rate: 3.1%

GDP: $377.257 billion (AUD)
GDP per Capita: $135,320
GDP growth rate: 2.1%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 20,500


PNG -
Population of Entire Market: 11,781,559
Population of Direct Market: 409,831
Current Growth rate: 1.9% (urbanisation likely to occur in the future with economic growth)

GDP: $31.692 billion (USD)
GDP per Capita: $2,581
GDP growth rate: 5.2%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 14,800


Christchurch -
Population of Entire Market: 1,225,000
Population of Direct Market: 521,881
Current Growth rate: 1.67%

GDP: $78.94 billion (NZD)
GDP per Capita: $65,875
GDP growth rate: 6.4%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 25,000-30,000 (New high quality stadium. Big +)

Brisbane 3 -
Population of Entire Market: 3,800.000 (/4 = 950,000)
Population of Direct Market: ~866,000
Current Growth rate: 2.6%

GDP: $279.79 billion (/4 = $69.9 billion)
GDP per Capita: $73,629
GDP growth rate: 2.5%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 52,500/5,500/5,000


Adelaide -
Population of Entire Market: 1,815,485
Population of Direct Market: 1,418,455
Current Growth rate: 1.7%

GDP: $108.334 billion
GDP per Capita: $61,582
GDP growth rate: 3.8%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 16,500


My synopsis: From the above metrics, Perth is the clear front runner. The one part of data that is hard to capture is the potential to supply high quality players into the NRL. Theoretically PNG has the population and passion for the game, to supply near as many players as the whole of Australia. If junior pathway programs were up to scratch there really isn't any reason there shouldn't be 100-150+ players of PNG descent in top 30 NRL squads. This is a pretty big selling point, Could be the way we expand to 20+ teams in the future and be the way into the league for a lot of the places above. A 10 year funding plan isn't enough though. Far too much instability. A better funding model needs to be approved with the government to ensure they survive longterm. 25 years+ will be needed before PNG will be sustainable without government funds.
PNG is a pretty unique situation though. Anything that builds PNG builds the NRL. Imagine a world where PNG has a GDP per Capita of $20-30k. The PNG TV deal would be massive.
The NRL is also in a good position compared to the AFL in terms of expansion effecting competition quality. We have a lot of other sources to get HQ players - Super League, Rugby Union, etc. Whereas new teams for AFL must be filled with lower league players coming into the league.

Just out of interest:
Hobart -

Population of Entire Market: 571,165
Population of Direct Market: 252,639
Current Growth rate: 0.42%

GDP: $32.102 billion
GDP per Capita: $59,779
GDP growth rate: 3.5%

Expected Stadium Capacity: 23,000

I think this just highlights the expansion options the NRL has that the AFL just doesn't. Way more growth opportunities available.

It highlights how ridiculous the PNG idea is.

 

[Bukowski]

It highlights how ridiculous the PNG idea is.

I think VLandys will realise this the closer he looks at it. He won't want it to be his legacy.

 

[MugaB]

Quick Analysis on the current contenders, decided to use Entire Market (Western Australia, PNG, NZ South Island, SEQ, etc) for GDP data, as that's going to be relevant for sponsorship's etc. -

Perth -
Population of Entire Market: 2,805,000
Population of Direct Market: 2,192,229
Current Growth rate: 3.1%

GDP: $377.257 billion (AUD)
GDP per Capita: $135,320
GDP growth rate: 2.1%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 20,500


PNG -
Population of Entire Market: 11,781,559
Population of Direct Market: 409,831
Current Growth rate: 1.9% (urbanisation likely to occur in the future with economic growth)

GDP: $31.692 billion (USD)
GDP per Capita: $2,581
GDP growth rate: 5.2%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 14,800


Christchurch -
Population of Entire Market: 1,225,000
Population of Direct Market: 521,881
Current Growth rate: 1.67%

GDP: $78.94 billion (NZD)
GDP per Capita: $65,875
GDP growth rate: 6.4%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 25,000-30,000 (New high quality stadium. Big +)

Brisbane 3 -
Population of Entire Market: 3,800.000 (/4 = 950,000)
Population of Direct Market: ~866,000
Current Growth rate: 2.6%

GDP: $279.79 billion (/4 = $69.9 billion)
GDP per Capita: $73,629
GDP growth rate: 2.5%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 52,500/5,500/5,000


Adelaide -
Population of Entire Market: 1,815,485
Population of Direct Market: 1,418,455
Current Growth rate: 1.7%

GDP: $108.334 billion
GDP per Capita: $61,582
GDP growth rate: 3.8%

Expected 2027 Stadium Capacity: 16,500


My synopsis: From the above metrics, Perth is the clear front runner. The one part of data that is hard to capture is the potential to supply high quality players into the NRL. Theoretically PNG has the population and passion for the game, to supply near as many players as the whole of Australia. If junior pathway programs were up to scratch there really isn't any reason there shouldn't be 100-150+ players of PNG descent in top 30 NRL squads. This is a pretty big selling point, Could be the way we expand to 20+ teams in the future and be the way into the league for a lot of the places above. A 10 year funding plan isn't enough though. Far too much instability. A better funding model needs to be approved with the government to ensure they survive longterm. 25 years+ will be needed before PNG will be sustainable without government funds.
PNG is a pretty unique situation though. Anything that builds PNG builds the NRL. Imagine a world where PNG has a GDP per Capita of $20-30k. The PNG TV deal would be massive.
The NRL is also in a good position compared to the AFL in terms of expansion effecting competition quality. We have a lot of other sources to get HQ players - Super League, Rugby Union, etc. Whereas new teams for AFL must be filled with lower league players coming into the league.

Just out of interest:
Hobart -

Population of Entire Market: 571,165
Population of Direct Market: 252,639
Current Growth rate: 0.42%

GDP: $32.102 billion
GDP per Capita: $59,779
GDP growth rate: 3.5%

Expected Stadium Capacity: 23,000

I think this just highlights the expansion options the NRL has that the AFL just doesn't. Way more growth opportunities available.

@nko11
Can you do one for Victoria2 (or Melbourne 2) aswell... as you mentioned PNG 1st should sort out the player pool issue, then its just about picking the areas based on your metrics after for the remaining 2 licences
Pretending that there is a Victoria 2 bid, yes?

 

[Colk]

Can you do one for Victoria aswell... as you mentioned PNG 1st should sort out the player pool issue, then its just about picking the areas based on your metrics after for the remaining 2 licences
Pretending that there is a Victoria 2 bid, yes?

I think I’ve read that their GDP per capita is around $80 -$90k so as an estimate they would be probably in the $400 -$500 billion mark.

 

[nko11]

GDP and population are irrelevant. If they were the most important factor then Melbourne Storm should be the richest rugby league club in the world because they have a market of 5 million people all to themselves. The two largest and richest rugby league clubs in the world are the Brisbane Broncos and Redcliffe Dolphins, despite the Brisbane market only being half the size. North Queensland Cowboys earn more revenue from football operations than every Sydney club, despite representing a region that has just 500k people and being based in a city with a population of 170k.

The most important metric is how many dedicated fans and businesses are willing to invest their time and money on an NRL club. On this metric, Brisbane 3 is light years ahead of Perth and every other potential bidder.

There's obviously far more to it than using 6 metrics to pick expansion, never going to get the full picture. I disagree that population and GDP stats are irrelevant though, especially when looking at expansion markets, which all are except Bris3. I think Brisbane 3 is inevitable, the question is whether 4 years is enough time for the Dolphins to establish themselves. Dolphins are looking good after one year, but it's unknown how they will go once the new team shine wears off. The Titans were averaging 21k the first few years. Last thing you'd want to do is introduce a competitor right when they go through that dip.

The Storm are a perfect example of GDP and Population being relevant. Try expansion in a city with the same level of interest that is 1/6th the size. The investment was made 20 years ago, with sub 10k crowds. Now they are 3rd highest rating on Foxtel, 6th highest on FTA and crowds are sustainably increasing YOY.


* I used the MRS stats in the top photo to take away Magic round crowds, the two missing crowds for 2023 were the Docklands games (26k and 20k). So really 200k this year in Melbourne for an average of 18k.

 

[Colk]

There's obviously far more to it than using 6 metrics to pick expansion, never going to get the full picture. I disagree that population and GDP stats are irrelevant though, especially when looking at expansion markets, which all are except Bris3. I think Brisbane 3 is inevitable, the question is whether 4 years is enough time for the Dolphins to establish themselves. Dolphins are looking good after one year, but it's unknown how they will go once the new team shine wears off. The Titans were averaging 21k the first few years. Last thing you'd want to do is introduce a competitor right when they go through that dip.

The Storm are a perfect example of GDP and Population being relevant. Try expansion in a city with the same level of interest that is 1/6th the size. The investment was made 20 years ago, with sub 10k crowds. Now they are 3rd highest rating on Foxtel, 6th highest on FTA and crowds are sustainably increasing YOY.
View attachment 82772
View attachment 82773

Very good analysis.