18th club, whose next?

[Iamback]

If the NRL and broadcasters were smart they would have a 7pm kick off for the eastern state game then a 7pm kick off in Perth. A lot better for everyone instead of 6pm and 8pm current kick off times.
Leaving only the Thursday night game not ideal for Perth attendance and Thursday night at 8pm on the east coast is just as bad for crowds.
So only 1 slot out of the 9 is not ideal, probably 1 game a year, if at all.

They will likely do that for home games, I am hopeful the new Fox ratings shows those who watch on delay.

Atm the ch9 breakdown shows Perth only have 9k watching the games. That isn't accurate but that is what we have. That won't change

 

[Centy Coast]

Without pokies and property developments, a Perth-based club will rely solely on sponsorship, corporate hospitality, merchandise, ticketing and membership to pay its bills.

It won't be in a position to host Thursday and Friday FTA games without taking a significant hit in ticketing revenue because they'll be holding the games at 6pm AWST. That timeslot is a crowd killer. It'll also lower the amount of casual viewers watching on FTA in Perth. This will limit the amount of revenue the club can generate from sponsorship and corporate hospitality. The club's operating budget will be significantly smaller than the Dolphins, Storm, Cowboys and Broncos. There's a strong possibility of a Perth-based club being the poorest in the NRL.

So with a PNG team all you have is the Govt $$$ backing then ?

 

[Bukowski]

They will likely do that for home games, I am hopeful the new Fox ratings shows those who watch on delay.

Atm the ch9 breakdown shows Perth only have 9k watching the games. That isn't accurate but that is what we have. That won't change

I though we were talking about attendance? 6pm ratings in Perth won't be good but a local side could only raise the number.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

So with a PNG team all you have is the Govt $$$ backing then ?

Yes.

The only club that will be sustainable and able to compete with the big clubs upon entry is the Brisbane Tigers. It's the safest option with the most upside.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

They will likely do that for home games, I am hopeful the new Fox ratings shows those who watch on delay.

Atm the ch9 breakdown shows Perth only have 9k watching the games. That isn't accurate but that is what we have. That won't change

Isn't it 8k?

Same as games in Melbourne not featuring the Storm. The Storm play 12 games on FTA for an average of 32k. It's only enough to bump the overall average up to 12k.

A Perth-based team won't get 12 games on FTA.

 

[Centy Coast]

Yes.

The only club that will be sustainable and able to compete with the big clubs upon entry is the Brisbane Tigers. It's the safest option with the most upside.

Yet they will have no money coming in from anywhere else because the majority of their fans won’t be able to afford to travel to away games, buy official merchandise, become club members, attend games regularly at NRL prices, makes perfect sense.

 

[Perth Red]

Without pokies and property developments, a Perth-based club will rely solely on sponsorship, corporate hospitality, merchandise, ticketing and membership to pay its bills.

It won't be in a position to host Thursday and Friday FTA games without taking a significant hit in ticketing revenue because they'll be holding the games at 6pm AWST. That timeslot is a crowd killer. It'll also lower the amount of casual viewers watching on FTA in Perth. This will limit the amount of revenue the club can generate from sponsorship and corporate hospitality. The club's operating budget will be significantly smaller than the Dolphins, Storm, Cowboys and Broncos. There's a strong possibility of a Perth-based club being the poorest in the NRL.

This is the interesting dilemma the NRL finds itself in. Does it go the Aleague model and demand a bond or payment for license to cover possible difficult times, or does it go AFL model and accept it may have to provide more investment at times in clubs that dont have the traditional asset base. The reality for the NRL is if it wants to see new clubs outside of two states and ACT then they wont have pokies to fall back on. They can go the private owner route and hope the owners have deep pockets and stick around. I suspect that is where they'll go as they dont have the cash, or the will, to do much else. Reality is NZ2, Perth, PNG, Adelaide, none of them will have pokie dens as back up.

There's going to be 9 game time slots. Only 2 dont work well for Perth/AEST tv, that leaves 7 to put them in.

Perth wont be the poorest in the NRL. Have you seen the revenue generation of some Sydney clubs? A well run club will sit in the top 50% of revenue imo.

 

[Iamback]

I though we were talking about attendance? 6pm ratings in Perth won't be good but a local side could only raise the number.

No sorry. I am talking about TV money.

I reckon the 9th game is $50m no matter who comes in.

I believe there is way way more then 9k that watch RL over there, sadly until Fox releases the full breakdown ( hopefully their new system does ) then it is hard to say TV will be huge

 

[Bukowski]

No sorry. I am talking about TV money.

I reckon the 9th game is $50m no matter who comes in.

I believe there is way way more then 9k that watch RL over there, sadly until Fox releases the full breakdown ( hopefully their new system does ) then it is hard to say TV will be huge

I agree. Perth tv numbers won't have a bearing on things. The 2 hr time difference might though as it opens up another timeslot. As I said earlier, 7pm east coast game then a7pm west coast game is good for attendances and broadcasters. Super Sunday comes into play without having a 6pm kickoff at the ground.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Yet they will have no money coming in from anywhere else because the majority of their fans won’t be able to afford to travel to away games, buy official merchandise, become club members, attend games regularly at NRL prices, makes perfect sense.

Without Gov funding there's no way PNG would be considered for the reasons you specified.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

No sorry. I am talking about TV money.

I reckon the 9th game is $50m no matter who comes in.

I believe there is way way more then 9k that watch RL over there, sadly until Fox releases the full breakdown ( hopefully their new system does ) then it is hard to say TV will be huge

When Foxtel released the metropolitan breakdown for their ratings in 2017 there were just 5k watching in Perth.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

This is the interesting dilemma the NRL finds itself in. Does it go the Aleague model and demand a bond or payment for license to cover possible difficult times, or does it go AFL model and accept it may have to provide more investment at times in clubs that dont have the traditional asset base.

Didn't the Dolphins have to provide a bank guarantee to secure the 17th licence?

According to an article in The West Australian they secured a bank guarantee of $50m.

Armed with a $50 million bank guarantee and the likelihood NRL coaching icon Wayne Bennett would lead the team, the Dolphins won every category assessed by the Australian Rugby League Commission's bid team and they had next to no time to do set up.

A WA team would need concessions, says Dolphins’ boss

The CEO of NRL expansion team the Dolphins says a WA franchise makes ‘perfect sense’ but would need the salary cap and recruiting concessions they never received.

thewest.com.au

It also says this:

The CEO of NRL expansion team the Dolphins says a WA franchise makes “perfect sense” but would need the salary cap and recruiting concessions they never received.​

The reality for the NRL is if it wants to see new clubs outside of two states and ACT then they wont have pokies to fall back on.

The NRL has been lukewarm at best about expanding outside of Queensland and NSW.

They can go the private owner route and hope the owners have deep pockets and stick around. I suspect that is where they'll go as they dont have the cash, or the will, to do much else.

How much money can Peter Cumins guarantee upfront?

@The Great Dane wanted Brisbane 2 to be run by local businessmen under a neutral brand that represented all of Brisbane. There was only one model that fit in this category and it was the least viable out of all the bids.

The fact is starting an NRL club from scratch is extremely expensive. It will be even more expensive to start a club in a rusted on fumbleball market.

Reality is NZ2, Perth, PNG, Adelaide, none of them will have pokie dens as back up.

I'm aware of this.

There's going to be 9 game time slots. Only 2 dont work well for Perth/AEST tv, that leaves 7 to put them in.

The Sun AEST 4PM FTA game will be played at 2pm AWST. Not the best timeslot for television.

Perth wont be the poorest in the NRL. Have you seen the revenue generation of some Sydney clubs? A well run club will sit in the top 50% of revenue imo.

I started a thread on revenue generation a couple of years ago. If a Perth-based team draws an average below 12k at PRS then it won't make much from game day.

 

[Perth Red]

How much money can Peter Cumins guarantee upfront?



I started a thread on revenue generation a couple of years ago. If a Perth-based team draws an average below 12k at PRS then it won't make much from game day.

who knows, and depends on what other businessmen are in on the bid. Be interesting To see if that’s what the nrl demand. It shouldn’t be hard to get a bank guarantee for them, wa govt may even underwrite it.

game day profit Depends on lots of things, not just attendance. Stadium rental costs, corporate sales etc souths made a profit on a 14k crowd avg in 2022. A Perth club avg’ing 15k with a full corprorate book will be fine with the nrl grant clubs now get. Especially if WA govt is covering some costs of the club Like pathways and nrlw team.

 

[The Great Dane]

Didn't the Dolphins have to provide a bank guarantee to secure the 17th licence?

According to an article in The West Australian they secured a bank guarantee of $50m.

Armed with a $50 million bank guarantee and the likelihood NRL coaching icon Wayne Bennett would lead the team, the Dolphins won every category assessed by the Australian Rugby League Commission's bid team and they had next to no time to do set up.​

​

A WA team would need concessions, says Dolphins’ boss

The CEO of NRL expansion team the Dolphins says a WA franchise makes ‘perfect sense’ but would need the salary cap and recruiting concessions they never received.

thewest.com.au

It also says this:

The CEO of NRL expansion team the Dolphins says a WA franchise makes “perfect sense” but would need the salary cap and recruiting concessions they never received.​

The NRL has been lukewarm at best about expanding outside of Queensland and NSW.



How much money can Peter Cumins guarantee upfront?

@The Great Dane wanted Brisbane 2 to be run by local businessmen under a neutral brand that represented all of Brisbane. There was only one model that fit in this category and it was the least viable out of all the bids.

The fact is starting an NRL club from scratch is extremely expensive. It will be even more expensive to start a club in a rusted on fumbleball market.



I'm aware of this.



The Sun AEST 4PM FTA game will be played at 2pm AWST. Not the best timeslot for television.



I started a thread on revenue generation a couple of years ago. If a Perth-based team draws an average below 12k at PRS then it won't make much from game day.

That's not my position, and I'd prefer it if you didn't put words in my mouth. If fact why don't you just go ahead and leave me out of your nonsense completely.

I would explain my position to you again, but what would be the point. At this point you're either incapable or unwilling to understand, so I'd just be a wasting my time.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

who knows, and depends on what other businessmen are in on the bid. Be interesting To see if that’s what the nrl demand. It shouldn’t be hard to get a bank guarantee for them, wa govt may even underwrite it.

game day profit Depends on lots of things, not just attendance. Stadium rental costs, corporate sales etc souths made a profit on a 14k crowd avg in 2022. A Perth club avg’ing 15k with a full corprorate book will be fine with the nrl grant clubs now get. Especially if WA govt is covering some costs of the club Like pathways and nrlw team.

Didn't Stadium Australia pay Souffs to play at the ground?

 

[Perth Red]

Didn't Stadium Australia pay Souffs to play at the ground?

Kind of, they did but also took a cut of game day revenue. They obviously feel they can make more at allianz.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

That's not my position, and I'd prefer it if you didn't put words in my mouth. If fact why don't you just go ahead and leave me out of your nonsense completely.

I would explain my position to you again, but what would be the point. At this point you're either incapable or unwilling to understand, so I'd just be a wasting my time.

I'm beginning to suspect you don't know what position you hold. A look at your thoughts on this subject between 2020 and 2022 back me up on this.

Here is what you said on Feb 22, 2022:

Their choice of "geographical" name makes little difference at this point. They had painted themselves into a corner as soon as they decided keep the Dolphins brand. Once that decision was made it made picking a geographical name impossible without it having a negative impact on their potential audience.

If they went with Redcliffe Dolphins they'd have alienated potential fans outside their traditional market. If they went with Morton Bay they would have pissed off a bunch of their traditional fanbase in Redcliffe and alienated a bunch of people in North Brisbane. If they went with Brisbane/North Brisbane then they'd have alienated Morton Bay and Redcliffe fans. Not picking a geographical identifier pisses a portion of everybody off.

So in other words they couldn't win, whichever route they went they were going to alienate a potential customer base.

If, on the other hand, they'd have abandoned the Dolphins brand for their NRL side and created something neutral then they could have constructed a new fanbase that drew from a broad cross section of Brisbane's society[/i][/b], but they refused to do that, and V'landys and the ARLC are so unbelievably myopic and stuck in the past that they gave them a license anyway.

Whom could have predicted this?

I disagree , the newer clubs don't so much the old sydney clubs do because they were the only clubs around & people picked a side if they lived outside of Sydney. & the only other factor for someone to follow a club is success , The Raiders became popular outside of their region because of...

forums.leagueunlimited.com

At this stage you were okay with the Dolphins getting the licence, on the provision they changed their brand to something "neutral".

What did you think before then?

Here's what you came out with on Apr 3 2021:

I never suggested they wouldn't survive financially, I said they'd lose the battle for hearts and minds...

The NRL doesn't need another failing football business with no fans that is perpetually propped up by rich owners and NRL grants.

What it needs is a behemoth of a club, with a large fan base (big enough to rival the Broncos), that can survive off it's football operations alone.

Unless they make major changes to their brand and target audience, the Dolphins simply aren't capable of that, and they'd end up being a mix between Brisbane's version or Manly and/or Easts, and we don't need that when there is the potential to build something much bigger.

The Dolphins brand is the problem!

Change their geographic representation all you like, people will still see them for what they would be; the Dolphins in drag and 'Brisbane' in name only.

If there was a league above the NRL and one of the other Sydney clubs was moving into it, but changed their name to (e.g.) the Sydney Eels, would you follow them?
Of course you wouldn't, no self respecting Panthers fan would ever be caught dead in an Eels jersey no matter whether they claimed to be from Parra, Sydney, or the bloody moon. So why are you expecting any different reaction from footy fans in Brisbane?

Now history shows that if they (the Dolphins or our hypothetical Eels) created a neutral brand, one that the vast majority of what should be their target audience hasn't grown up hating for generations, then we've got something with potential. But the Dolphins aren't doing that, so that alone should rule them out for the license.

The Game - Future NRL Stadiums part II

What kind of shithouse stockbroker lives In Brisbane?

forums.leagueunlimited.com

In 2021 you argued the Dolphins' brand limited the amount of people who would support the club.

How do you explain the Dolphins drawing an average of 32k fans to Lang Park with a team that wasn't very successful on the field?

That's twice as many people than the Broncos had attending their games in 1988.

The stuff you said about revenue needing to be from football operations is quite interesting. Using your logic, V'landys should tell Peter Cumins to get f**ked!

The consortium he's allegedly running will be propping up a club that has no fans and based at a small stadium with poor corporate facilities.

That rules out a consortium from Adelaide, too. There's no way Adelaide and Perth will have a team that rivals the Broncos.

Anyway, what did you think on July 24 2020?

Every NRL club is a corporate entity at this point, and sure the Bombers brand isn't the greatest, but with the possible exception of the Firehawks, none of bid's brands are particularly inspiring.

So yeah when you actually think about it what's so wrong with the Bombers bid?

I mean they've got solid money behind them (or at least they did prior to covid), they seem to have successful businessmen behind them, and they've already got strong connections in the footy community, and the money to get good footy minds behind them.
They're willing to play out of Suncorp and have no plans built into their bid to move away from Suncorp anytime soon. Whether we like the brand or not, their brand is neutral, and there's a ton of benefits to that. Even the broadcasters were on their side a few years ago.

Don't get me wrong I'm not a big supporter of the Bombers bid or anything (I'm not really a big supporter of any of the Brisbane bids, they all seem deeply flawed to me), I'm just saying that there are a lot of positives to their bid and the main reasons that people oppose them are pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things.

Rank the Brisbane bids

and the Storm bring in an audience from Victoria (yes a small one) that wouldn't otherwise be there. I believe the Storm presence also gives SOO and the GF bigger ratings in Melbourne. If there was no Storm I doubt that State of Origin or Grand final would even be shown live in Melbourne. NRL...

forums.leagueunlimited.com

In July 2020 you spoke positively about a bid that had businessmen investing money into a prospective club that had a neutral brand and was based out of Lang Park.

In other words, everything I said about your position is right, yeah?

Going back to before I joined LU, you said this on Feb 18 2020:

Exactly, any new Brisbane club needs a neutral brand.

If you bring in e.g. the Dolphins, all you are going to do is ostracize most RL fans in Brisbane that aren't Dolphins fans, and those people are one of the main groups that any new Brisbane club needs to engage with.

If the Dolphins want to own the new Brisbane club that is fine though, but they need to leave Redcliffe and the Dolphins behind to do it, and take on a new brand that represents a large part of Brisbane. In other words they need to copy what the Queanbeyan Blues did when they created the Canberra Raiders.

Gold Coast Bears/Nth Sydney/Gosford

I'm no BRL historian.. does anyone know what names are there that fit that "revive something old" idea? Someone use to suggest reviving the Brisbane Firsts or Combined Brisbane. I think they use to play in Panasonic cup or something. Was like a Brisbane rep team same as City or Country. I think...

forums.leagueunlimited.com

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Kind of, they did but also took a cut of game day revenue. They obviously feel they can make more at allianz.

I found this:

However, the club's saviour has been a lucrative deal with Telstra stadium, which guarantees a gate of $70,000 a game if one fan walks in the door, as opposed to the $30,000 the Rabbitohs were paying to use Sydney Football Stadium.
As a result, with each game at Telstra Stadium, the Rabbitohs are $100,000 ahead of last year

Lachlan's legacy: $560m lost on Super League

Ten years after Rupert Murdoch set out to conquer rugby league, News Corporation has finally revealed the bill for its unhappy Super League adventure a staggering $560 million.

www.afr.com

 

[Iamback]

I agree. Perth tv numbers won't have a bearing on things. The 2 hr time difference might though as it opens up another timeslot. As I said earlier, 7pm east coast game then a7pm west coast game is good for attendances and broadcasters. Super Sunday comes into play without having a 6pm kickoff at the ground.

6.30pm Sunday night isn't too bad for here, 5.30 QLD time. So that would be where I would put the extra game on the other weeks

 

[Bukowski]

6.30pm Sunday night isn't too bad for here, 5.30 QLD time. So that would be where I would put the extra game on the other weeks

It's seems like that's where the extra time slot will be. Not a great time for crowds.