undertaker
Coach
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Looks like another "Victorian, Dutch, Victorian, Dutch, can't make up my mind what I am" is trying to get his name in the headlines.
In 50 overs they have a hell of a lot more a chance then we do, if they lose some early wickets they can just shut up shop but if they get off to a flier they have a good chance on this road of a wicket.
NZ nearly chased down 284 off 57 overs on a flat Gabba pitch back in 2001, falling 10 runs short (against McGrath/Lee/Gillespie/Warne). After toiling hard in the field, Australia will definitely not want to take the risk and give NZ a sniff and will be happy with a draw in this test, taking a 1-0 into the last test and retaining the trophy. Smith will be aware NZ have the batsmen that can score at a quick rate.
Unless NZ has a monumental batting collapse, there just simply isn't enough time and the WACA pitch isn't doing enough to force a win. If anything, as you said, an early declaration to try and win will play perfectly into batting teams' (NZ) hands, as was shown in that Gabba test match above and also at The Oval in 2013 when Michael Clarke thought he could declare early to try and win with only 40 overs left. And as I posted above, showers predicted from about 3pm onwards.
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