Interesting you point to male participation... I assume you are referring to male full contact. I hate to break it to you but that's the case for just about all contact sports in the modern day.
What was that you said about single factor analysis?
Firstly, that wasn't a single factor analysis. . . I didn't say that the drop off in participation was the be all and end all threat to RL and the NRL's future did I.
Secondly, the fact that participation is dropping in all contact sports (which isn't actually true BTW) doesn't change the fact that it's a massive concern for RL itself. I've never seen any solid evidence that touch/tag is making up the difference in the key male demos either, just lots of people assuming that is because of it's steady increase in numbers over the last 30ish years. Not to mention the fact that on average most people whom play touch/tag have zero interest in RL or the NRL.
Thirdly, nobody has ever successfully created a streamlined method to convert non-contact players into full contact professionals late in their development in any sport, and people have been attempting it in multiple different sports for decades. There aren't even really any examples of significant players whom were truly developed from non-contact amateurs into contact professionals. Shaun Johnson is always the example people bring up in RL, but he grew up playing contact RU and Aussie Rules, where he would have learnt all the basic tackling skills he needed to progress into a RL career.
So yeah, the NRL are even more off their heads if they think that they can fill the gap in the decline in participation with touch and tag players. The simplest solution is the best in this case; upscale and increase investment into grassroots and juniors programs and broaden their reach to funnel through as many people as possible to counteract the general decline in participation as much as possible.