NRL clear winner based on the fact there is no promotion whatsoever in Sydney. The upside over the next 10-15 years is massive for the NRL whereas, for AFL - really where else can they expand their TV audience out of? They've reached saturation. AFL is an Australian game - that's it.
Slight issue though. If Melbourne or a Queensland team did not make it would the ratings be as big? Remembering the Sydney aust rules clubs didnt make the gf for a change. If a genuinely popular Sydney club makes it like South Sydney, Parramatta or Saints then I can see a decent tv ratings reach . Otherwise not so good.